Top‐Down Versus Bottom‐Up Demand Forecasts: The Value of Shared Point‐of‐Sale Data in the Retail Supply Chain

Accurate demand forecasts are critical to maintaining customer service levels and minimizing total costs, yet increasingly difficult to achieve. Using weekly point‐of‐sale (POS) and order data for 10 ready‐to‐eat cereal stock‐keeping units from 18 regional U.S. grocery distribution centers, this research empirically investigates two demand forecasting issues: (1) the accuracy of top‐down versus bottom‐up demand forecasts; and (2) whether shared POS data improve demand forecast accuracy. The results reveal a previously unexplored relationship between demand forecast methodology and the use of shared POS data. We find that the superiority of the top‐down or bottom‐up forecasting as the more accurate demand forecast method depends on whether shared POS data are used.     

On the estimation technique to reveal government distributional weights

This paper provides a critique of techiniques for estimating distributional weights using the revealed preference (imputational) approach. Stochastic versus deterministic methods are contrasted and a preference for the stochastic methodology is indicated. It argues that Probit is the most appropriate technique. This allows both decision-marker error (an inability to make full interpersonal income comparisons, as suggested by Basu) and the imputer's error (an inability to observe all components in the utiliy function, as suggested by McFadden) to be incorporated in the estimation equation. The implications of using Probit are discussed in the context of UK railway closure decisions.     

Transformational Leadership: Managing the Twenty‐First Century Sales Force

In today's more diverse sales organizations, sales managers face important interpersonal challenges to achieving high‐quality relationships, which result in better performance within their sales force. In this article, it is argued that cultural distance can negatively influence sales manager and sales subordinate relationships. The quality of these relationships ultimately influences the level of effort that sales subordinates exert toward achieving organizational sales goals. However, despite the potential obstacle of cultural distance, sales managers can utilize transformational leadership as a means to mitigate its adverse effects on one‐to‐one relationships with members of the sales force.     

The Adjustable Balance Mortgage: Reducing the Value of the Put

We propose a new mortgage contract that endogenously captures the risk of house price declines to minimize default risk resulting from changes in the underlying asset value while still retaining contract rates near the cost of a standard fixed‐rate mortgage. By reducing the role of the legal system in mitigating house price risk, the new mortgage reduces the negative externalities and social costs arising from defaults. In other words, the new mortgage minimizes the need to use the legal foreclosure system to deal with the economic risk of house price declines.     

Host–guest authentication of intangible cultural heritage: a literature review and conceptual model

ABSTRACT

Cultural tourism and intangible cultural heritage (ICH) play a key role in tourism worldwide, and are especially important for communities in developing countries, due to the demand for authentic experiences. This article provides a review of existing literature on the authenticity and authentication of ICH. The review reveals scholarly inquiry has evolved from external-expert ‘cool’ authentication to direct host–guest on-site or ‘hot’ authentication whereby tourists participate in the process of determining authenticity. Further, existing models for authentication of ICH have focused only on either a guest’s or host’s perspectives with little attention to the inevitable mutual interaction of the host and guest in the authentication of ICH. Mutual authentication can enhance the tourist experience and improve community empowerment. This paper develops a conceptual model of the mutual (host–guest) authentication of ICH, incorporating both hosts’ and tourists’ perspectives. The model has application in ICH based tourism and emphasizes power relationships between the host and guest, and community empowerment across political, social, psychological and economic domains. Future research is needed to test and validate this conceptual model.     

Lender Steering in Residential Mortgage Markets

In this article, we examine the incentives for lenders to steer borrowers into piggyback loan structures to circumvent regulations requiring primary mortgage insurance (PMI) for loans with loan‐to‐value ratios (LTV) above 80%. Our empirical analysis focuses on propensity score‐matched portfolios of piggyback and single‐lien loans having the same combined LTV based on a full set of observed risk characteristics. Our results confirm that mortgages originated with the piggyback structure have much lower ex post default rates and faster prepayment speeds than corresponding PMI loans. We also find a significant causal effect of interstate banking deregulation on the growth of piggybacks in these years, confirming that the ex post performance gap is primarily driven by lender steering on the supply side and not by borrower self‐selection. We then perform a number of tests to explore different origination and execution channels of mortgage steering.     

Global economic effects of the EU Common Agricultural Policy

Among distortions in international agricultural trade, those imposed by the European Union (EU) are the most disruptive. Under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the EU has switched from being a large net importer of agricultural products to a large exporter. This has greatly altered world agricultural markets, imposing substantial costs on the EU itself and efficient agricultural exporters in the rest of the world. We show how the CAP has affected world agricultural markets and present estimates of the associated costs. First we assess the aggregate costs broken down by various product categories. Next we provide a specific example of one product, sugar.     

Uncertainty awareness in urban sprawl simulations: Lessons from a small US metropolitan region

Land use change modeling and simulation is a popular tool in land use planning and policy formulation. However, the outputs of land use change simulation are not always accompanied with information on uncertainty. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate the inherent uncertainty in sprawl simulation, which is attributable to error in the input parameters and to limitations in our understanding of land use systems. To reach this goal, the paper determines sprawl simulation accuracy and uncertainty for a small US metropolitan region as produced by the CLUE-S modeling framework. The model simulates sprawl location in the region accurately, but the certainty of sprawl location projections decreases with time. This uncertainty in the simulation suggests that modelers should report uncertainty with their output over all time horizons so that, on the one hand, land use planners and decision makers do not place too much confidence in any single sprawl simulation (which could lead to unwarranted and expensive urban growth management policies) and, on the other hand, do not place too little confidence in sprawl models (which could have severe socioeconomic and environmental consequences). Thus, reporting uncertainty with simulation output provides planners and decision makers with a platform for more informed land use policy.     

Cost-benefit analysis of single-family foreclosure alternatives

Over the last ten years, single-family mortgage lenders have become more aware of the financial benefits of finding alternatives to foreclosure for borrowers who default on their mortgage obligations. In this article, expected costs of foreclosure alternatives are parameterized to solve for minimum probabilities of borrower success necessary to make pursuing them profitable for lenders. These break-even probabilities are found to be very insensitive to changes in a variety of factors, including interest-rate environments and time horizons. Simulations are performed across house-price-deflation scenarios, loan-to-value ratios, and post-default cure rates. Stochastic processes are introduced through time distributions for foreclosure processing, property disposition, and house-price appreciation.     

Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities: Prepayment and Default

One of the major developments in real estate finance during the 1990s was the emergence of a viable market for commercial mortgage backed securities. The growth in this market has spurred greater interest in empirical and theoretical research on commercial mortgage default and prepayment. We employ a competing risks model to examine the default and prepayment behavior of commercial loans underlying CMBS deals. We find that changes in the yield curve have a direct impact on the probability of mortgage termination. Furthermore, we do not find any statistical relationship between LTV and prepayment or default.