石油价格进入更加波动的新时期

通过对油价波动的历史原因、市场内在因素和人为因素的分析可以看出，石油市场已进入一个新时期，油价将变得更加动荡，而且在波动中呈上升趋势。预计新的平均价位大体为每桶20美元。为此，石油公司应积极研究贸易策略，一方面设法使自身免受损失，另一方面还要寻求从价格波动中赢利。只有准备充分，才能够抗御油价的剧烈波动和周期性变化，进而获得生存与发展。     

Option volume and volatility response to scheduled economic news releases

In this article, we examine the impact of 21 different types of scheduled macroeconomic news announcements on S&P 100 stock‐index option volume and implied volatility. We find that there is a 2‐h delay after the announcement before volume increases. However, there is an immediate increase in volatility, which slowly dissipates over several hours. Further analysis shows that most of the high volume and volatility after announcements come from the announcements that are considered bad news. That is, bad news creates high volatility and high volume, whereas good news elicits lower volume and is not associated with higher volatility. These results are not consistent with the predictions of any one model. We also find that the announcements that cause the largest reaction in the equity option market are Consumer Credit, Consumer Spending, Factory Inventories, NAPM, and Non‐Farm Payrolls. Six other announcements elicit a mild response. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:315–345, 2003     

The design and pricing of fixed‐ and moving‐window contracts: An application of Asian‐Basket option pricing methods to the hog‐finishing sector

Asian‐Basket‐type moving‐window contracts are an increasingly used risk‐management tool in the North American hog sector. The moving‐window contract is decomposed into a portfolio of a long Asian‐Basket put and a short Asian‐Basket call option. A projected break‐even price is used to determine the floor price, and then Monte Carlo simulation methods are used to price both a moving‐ and a fixed‐window contract. These methods provide unbiased pricing of fixed‐ and moving‐window hog‐finishing contracts of 1‐year duration. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:1047–1073, 2003     

Economic analysis of the impact of adopting herd health control programs on smallholder dairy farms in Central Thailand

The economic impact of adopting herd health programs for mastitis and reproduction by small-scale dairy producers of Central Thailand was assessed using a policy analysis matrix (PAM). Following a reduction in the incidence of bovine disease on adopter farms, an increase in private net profits is observed. More importantly the social costs of supporting dairy farmers is reduced; the PAM effective protection coefficient was reduced by 35% for mastitis program adopters and by 44% for reproductive program adopters, indicating improved social efficiency of dairy policy. Other indicators of efficiency and policy implications are discussed.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF AUDIT FEES: SOME EMPIRICAL MODELS

This paper proposes a model of audit fee determination based upon size and other characteristics of the auditee and the auditor, and upon whether there has been a recent change of auditor (which might lead to a low-balling effect). A novel feature of the model is that auditee size is measured in two dimensions, sales and assets, and is allowed to have a quadratic relationship with audit fee. The model was estimated for a sample of large listed UK companies for the years 1981 to 1988. The results support the low-balling hypothesis and also provide insights into the distinctive role of the Big 8 firms in the audit market.     

Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation

Standard models of informed speculation suggest that traders try to learn information that others do not have. This result implicitly relies on the assumption that speculators have long horizons, i.e., can hold the asset forever. By contrast, we show that if speculators have short horizons, they may herd on the same information, trying to learn what other informed traders also know. There can be multiple herding equilibria, and herding speculators may even choose to study information that is completely unrelated to fundamentals.