麦肯锡全球调查创新与商业化

随着企业开始重新关注增长,创新冉一次成为了优先要务:在最近进行的麦肯锡全球调查中1,84%的高管称创新对于其企业的增长战略极为重要或非常重要.调查结果还显示,与危机前相比,企业用于产生出色创意并将这些创意转变为产品或服务的方法变化不大,而这并非因为高管们认为这些方法非常有效.此外,发现合适的人才、鼓励协作与承担风险,以及从头到尾组织创新流程等挑战也依然如故,这一点值得大家注意.事实上,过去几年的调查显示,成功创新的核心障碍一直没有变化,而企业在克服这些障碍方面也没有什么进展.     

Modelling the Risks Associated with the Increased Importation of Fresh Produce from Emerging Supply Sources Outside the EU to the UK

The risk of non‐indigenous plant pests entering the UK via international trade in fresh produce is increasing. The objective of this article is to identify existing and emerging supply sources for UK fresh produce importers and examine the extent to which they could provide invasion pathways. We tested the hypothesis that increased imports of fresh produce from new sources outside the European Union could increase the risks of non‐indigenous insect pests. We use a bio‐economic model approach in which the number of species arrivals is a function of the volume of imports, whereas the volume of imports itself is a function of gross domestic product, relative import prices and seasonality. The study has identified clear trends, which show import volumes of fresh produce and species detections increasing from new supply sources. If this trend continues in the future, then the UK inspection agency should expect to confront species from new suppliers in much greater numbers, given that import volumes of fresh produce are income elastic.     

A Credible Path for Ending Too Big to Fail

The high degree of concentration in the U.S. financial system has been intensified in the wake of the 2007–09 financial crisis. Implicit government support of banks that are deemed “too big to fail” has resulted in excessive risk taking and a focus on short-term rewards rather than long-term performance. This paper proposes a three-step plan to limit the federal safety net to commercial depository institutions and to restructure institutions so that no one institution poses systemic risk in the event of failure and that the largest banks face the same kind of risks of closure and market risk as the smallest.     

Agricultural Export-Diversification and Economic Growth in Caribbean Countries: Cointegration and Error-Correction Models

This article uses cointegration and error-correction models to analyze the causal relationship between agricultural export diversification and economic growth in eight selected Caribbean countries using annual data from 1961 to 2000. The empirical results show that in the short run, agricultural export diversification Granger causes economic growth in Barbados and Belize. Noncausality exists for the other countries. In the long run, agricultural export diversification also Granger causes economic growth in the Dominican Republic. On the contrary, agricultural export diversification is the outcome of the economic growth process in Belize, Costa Rica, Haiti, and Jamaica, in the long run. Noncausality exists in Trinidad and Tobago. There is no evidence of bi-directional causality in any of the countries in either the short or long run.     

Tracking a changing copula

A copula models the relationships between variables independently of their marginal distributions. When the variables are time series, the copula may change over time. Recursive procedures based on indicator variables are proposed for tracking these changes over time. Estimation of the unknown parameters is by maximum likelihood. When the marginal distributions change, pre-filtering is necessary before constructing the indicator variables on which the recursions are based. This entails estimating time-varying quantiles and a simple method based on time-varying histograms is proposed. The techniques are applied to the Hong Kong and Korean stock market indices. Some interesting and unexpected movements are detected, particularly after the attack on the Hong Kong dollar in 1997.     

An evaluation of the red-light camera programme in the city of Dammam,the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

This study evaluated the effectiveness of red-light cameras in Dammam, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Two methods were used to assess changes in crash risk at the intersections at which the red-light camera programme had been operating. Geospatial analysis was used to visualize trends in road crash density over the geographical region of Dammam and a pre--post-camera crash analysis was undertaken. The distribution of injury crashes was greater than that of crashes which included property damage, the latter of which was concentrated around central Dammam. The five red-light cameras installed in 2012 were located outside areas of high-crash and injury density, and the total number of crashes reported in the three-month periods after installation was double that before the cameras were installed. This increase in the number of crashes also occurred at the five comparison sites (without red-light cameras), indicating a null effect. The findings from this study are contrary to previous evaluations of speed management programmes associated with red-light cameras. The study highlights the challenges in obtaining data for such research and illustrates that a reliance on overt, fixed camera's to manage speed is unlikely to deliver significant reductions in road trauma.     

Estimating an origin–destination table for US imports of waterborne containerized freight

Containerized freight imports into the US are growing at an average of 10% per year. This traffic is concentrated at a small number of US seaports. It is therefore important to have an accurate understanding of the flow of containers from their origin country through these seaports to their final destination. This paper develops an optimization model to estimate route flows and a corresponding multi-modal origin–destination table for containers by synthesizing data on international trade and railcar movements with a gravity model for the demand of container traffic. This analysis provides insights into the balance of rail and truck inland transportation from each port.