并购交易中的金降落伞计划

对于即将奔赴海外进行并购的中国企业而言,必须仔细审视这些“金降落伞”计划是否会加大收购成本或增加目标公司现金支出从而阻碍购并。     

Unit Root Testing under a Local Break in Trend using Partial Information on the Break Date*

We consider unit root testing allowing for a break in trend when partial information is available regarding the location of the break date. This takes the form of knowledge of a relatively narrow window of data within which the break takes place, should it occur at all. For such circumstances, we suggest employing a union of rejections strategy, which combines a unit root test that allows for a trend break somewhere within the window with a unit root test that makes no allowance for a trend break. Asymptotic and finite sample evidence shows that our suggested strategy works well, provided that, when a break does occur, the partial information is correct. An empirical application to UK interest rate data containing the 1973 ‘oil shock’ is also considered.     

Visitor management in the public planning policy context: A case study of Cambridge

Visitor management plans are increasingly seen by local authorities as an essential contribution they can make towards sustainable tourism. However, tourism is subject to many external influences and is only part of the system of activities and land uses at the destination. Successful visitor management must, therefore, be broadly based and rooted in a wide range of policies. The objectives for sustainable tourism in Cambridge are supported by policies at the European, national, regional, county and local level covering tourism, recreation, transport, the environment, land use and economic development. This results in an integrated policy framework that ensures consistency, encourages cooperation and long‐term planning, makes the best use of resources, opens up additional sources of finance and provides a firm justification for refusing undesirable development. Achieving integration requires the visitor management plan to be seen neither as an end nor as a beginning, but as part of a process. In Cambridge this has involved a commitment to monitoring and reviewing strategies and to ensuring a policy input on tourism issues at all levels of decision making. Appropriate ad hoc bodies have been set up. Visitor management cannot succeed in isolation: other policies must be made to work for it, not frustrate action.     

An additively separable representation in the Savage framework

This paper proposes necessary and sufficient conditions for an additively separable representation of preferences in the Savage framework (where the objects of choice are acts: measurable functions from an infinite set of states to a potentially finite set of consequences). A preference relation over acts is represented by the integral over the subset of the product of the state space and the consequence space which corresponds to the act, where this integral is calculated with respect to an evaluation measure on this space. The result requires neither Savage's P3 (monotonicity) nor his P4 (weak comparative probability). Nevertheless, the representation it provides is as useful as Savage's for many economic applications.     

MARKET REFORM AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN LATIN AMERICA: Evidence from an Error Correction Model

This study models dollar values of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to conditions in seven Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela) during the 1988-1992 period. Although much research on FDI has used time series data to explain inward or outward flows, two things set this study apart. First, this study includes market reforms as independent variables. Second, this study uses newer time series econometric tools (unit root test and cointegration analysis) to correct for a spurious regression. Our model is robust, explaining 79.4 percent of variation. We found three independent variables (size of current account deficit, size of GDP, and value of privatization less FDI in privatized companies) to be significant. Although we found directional support for three other independent variables (degree of capital market liberalization, low inflation rate, and depreciation of the real exchange rate), none of these proved significant.     

Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks,Bonds and Gold

Is gold a hedge, defined as a security that is uncorrelated with stocks or bonds on average, or is it a safe haven, defined as a security that is uncorrelated with stocks and bonds in a market crash? We study constant and time‐varying relations between U.S., U.K. and German stock and bond returns and gold returns to investigate gold as a hedge and a safe haven. We find that gold is a hedge against stocks on average and a safe haven in extreme stock market conditions. A portfolio analysis further shows that the safe haven property is short‐lived.