中远船务：海工创新与发展并进

今年2月14日．由南通中远船务工程有限公司研发的“深海高稳件圆筒型钻探储油平台的关键设计与制造技术”项目喜获2011年度国家科技进步一等奖．     

THE LEAD–LAG RELATION BETWEEN THE S&P500 SPOT AND FUTURES MARKETS: AN INTRADAY-DATA ANALYSIS USING A THRESHOLD REGRESSION MODEL

In this paper we examine the lead–lag interaction between the futures and spot markets of the S&P500 using the threshold regression model on intraday data. The use of threshold variables to model the changes in the regression structure with respect to different market conditions enables us to investigate the lead–lag interaction in a data-based approach and avoid stratifying the data arbitrarily. Using the basis as the threshold variable, we find that the short-selling restrictions in the spot market reduce the effect of the spot index as the leading variable. To study the effect of market-wide information on the interaction between the spot and futures markets, we use the coefficient of determination in the regression of the S&P500 on the Morgan–Stanley Composite Index-US and the Major Market Index as the threshold variable. We find that the lead effect of the futures market over the spot market is stronger when there is more market-wide information. On the other hand, the lead effect of the cash market over the futures market is weaker when there is more market-wide information. In addition, we also use the lagged 45-min return of the spot market as the threshold variable. We find that the lead effect of the spot market is stronger in periods of directionless trading than in periods of good or bad markets.     

Laurence Steven Moss, 1944–2009

Larry Moss lived a busy life as an academic, a professor, an attorney, a journal editor, and a skilled magician. He was a prolific publisher of scholarly articles and books, and an editor of scholarly volumes. With friendly charm and humor, he sought to encourage others in their scholarly pursuits. He employed his magical skills to enliven his courses and to illustrate certain economic phenomena. Larry served the History of Economics Society in important capacities, including its presidency. He sought "methodological tolerance" and interacted with scholars of different philosophical persuasions. He organized memorials for numerous other economists; it thus is fitting that we do so here for him.     

LOBBYING COMPETITION OVER TRADE POLICY*

Competition between opposing lobbies is an important factor in the endogenous determination of trade policy. This article investigates the consequences of lobbying competition between upstream and downstream producers. The theoretical structure underlying the empirical analysis is the well‐known Grossman–Helpman model of trade policy determination, modified to account for the cross‐sectoral use of inputs (itself a quantitatively significant phenomenon, with around 50% of manufacturing output being used by other sectors rather than in final consumption). Our empirical results validate the theoretical predictions. Importantly, accounting for lobbying competition also alters substantially estimates of the “welfare‐mindedness” of governments in setting trade policy.     

Paradigms and Novelty in Economics: The History of Economic Thought as a Source of Enlightenment

Over time, economics has experienced paradigm shifts, and there is every reason to think this will continue. In economics, as in the development of technological knowledge, paradigms do not emerge from nowhere, but build on precursors, possibly from other fields. Our understanding of current economic thinking can be enhanced by paying greater attention to the role of paradigms and by using concepts such as myth, plot structure, and cultural endowment, which are typically given greater attention by literary analysts than by economists, to study paradigms. Here we argue that together these can help us better understand how ideas from other times and fields may be combined with our own to generate better research and publications, and that a greater awareness of the history of economics may well be an excellent vehicle for enhancing that understanding.     

The Impact of American Politics on Perceptions of Women's Golfing Abilities

We examine the relationship between political environments and perceptions of women's physical abilities. Using a sample of 496 golf courses located in the United States, we find a significant relationship between state political affiliations, ratings of senators and congressional representatives on a liberal to conservative continuum, and perceptions of gendered physical abilities. Institutional theory is presented as an explanation for the regional variation in perceptions of women's golfing abilities. Implications and results are discussed. Suggestions for further research are presented.     

OPTIMAL CONTROL OF EXTERNALITIES IN THE PRESENCE OF INCOME TAXATION*

A substantial literature examines how the Pigouvian directive that marginal taxes should equal marginal external harms needs to be modified in light of the preexisting distortion due to labor income taxation. Additional literature considers distributive concerns. It is demonstrated, however, that simple first‐best rules—unmodified for labor supply distortion or distribution—are correct in the model examined. Specifically, setting all commodity taxes equal to marginal harms (and subsidies equal to marginal benefits) can generate a Pareto improvement, as can a marginal reform toward the first‐best. Qualifications and explanations for differences from previous work are also presented.