Inferences about the parameters of a time series model with changing variance

Summary We consider the problem of making inferences about the parameters of a time series model when there is the possibility of a discrete variance change at an unknown time point. For this we obtain the posterior distributions of the parameters and of the variance ratio.     

Effects of demographic,experiential, and attitudinal factors on occupational sex stereotypes

The purpose of this study was to (a) compare the occupational sex stereotypes of 366 college students with those reported by Shinar in 1975, and (b) examine the relationships between demographic, experiential, and attitudinal variables and these occupational sex stereotypes. The results indicated a significant difference in occupational ratings from Shinar's study, with females' perceptions shifting more than males' perceptions. In addition, subjects' gender, tenure with female managers, and attitudes toward women as managers, were shown to be significant predictors of occuptational ratings. The implications of these findings for both employees and managers are then discussed.     

Health and development∗

The linkage between development and health is clearly spelt out in the definition of primary health care by the World Health Organisation. There is a widespread and growing disillusionment with the traditional Western approach to health care which fails to meet the real demands of the Third World situation.

This paper looks briefly at conditions in the developing world and the strategy proposed by the W H O to attempt to meet the objective of health for all by the year 2000 and refers to the South African situation.     

Book Reviews

Richard Robison, Indonesia: The Rise of Capital, Allen and Unwin, Sydney, 1986 pp. xxv + 425. Indexed. $19.95.

W.L. Korthals Altes, Changing Economy in Indonesia: Volume 7: Balance of Payments, 1822–1939, Amsterdam: The Royal Tropical Institute. pp. 167.

Trade Statistics, Java, 1823–73: Trade Statistics, Indonesia 1874–1937. Mededeelingen van het Centraal Kantoor voor de Statistiek nos 160 and 161

Om Prakash, The Dutch East India Company and the Economy of Bengal, 1630–1720, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1985 pp. xii + 291, map, tables. graphs, glossary, index. Cloth $38.50.

Sediono M.P. Tjondronegoro, Social Organization and Planned Development in Rural Java, Singapore, Oxford University Press for the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1984, pp. xv + 326.

A. Fujimoto and F. Matsuda (eds), An Economic Study of Rice Farming in West Java, Tokyo: NODAI Research Institute, Tokyo, University of Agriculture, 1986.

A. Fujimoto and T. Matsuda (eds), A Comparative Study of the Structure of Rice Productivity and Rural Society in Southeast Asta Two Village Studies in Indonesta and Thailand, Tokyo: University of Agriculture, 1985. Reviewed by C.L J. van der Meer (1986) Bulletin of Indanesian Economic Studies, 22(2) pp. 124–27

David Jenkins, Suharto and His Generals: Indonesian Military Politics, 1975–1983, Ithaca: Cornell Modern Indonesia Project, Monograph Series No. 64, 1984, pp. xiii + 280. US$12.50. David Bourchier, Dynamics of Dissent in Indonesia Sawito and the Phantom Coup, Ithaca: Cornell Modern Indonesia Project, Interim Reports Series, 1984, pp. 128. US$9.00.

Linda G. Martin (ed), The ASEAN Success Story: Social, Economic, and Political Dimensions, East-West Center, distributed by the University of Hawaii Press, Honolulu, 1987, pp. xviii + 253. $15.00.

Mubyarto and Edy Suandy Hamid (eds), Kredit Pedesaan di Indonesia, Badan Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi, U.G.M., 1986 pp, 160.

Ron Hatley, et al., Other Javas Away from the Kraton, Melbourne: Monash University, 1984, pp. 60.

K.S. Nathan and M. Pathmanathan (eds), Trilateralism in Asia: Problems and Prospects in US-Japan-ASEAN Relations, Antara Book Company, Kuala Lumpur, 1986, pp. xviii + 205. $18.00 (cloth): $12.00 (paper).     

Informal group influence among situationally/dispositionally-oriented consumers

Consumer susceptibility to reference group influence has been demonstrated for certain products and buying situations. This article reports a study designed to determine if reference group influence varies between consumers classified as situationally-oriented and dispositionally-oriented. Results indicate a considerable difference between the two groups. Independence Health Plan     

The effect of interstate highway on driving times and regional shopping center drawing power

Previous studies of the driving times of shopping center patrons have not examined the effect of limited access highways. This study analyzed the impact of interstate highways on the driving times of 204 shoppers at three medium-sized regional shopping centers. Those shoppers indicating usage of interstate highways to reach their shopping destinations were significantly more likely to incur travel times greater than fifteen and twenty minutes than those not using the available interstate roads. In predicting the drawing power of these shopping centers, factors besides mass were found to be useful. These include square footage of shopping goods, stores, and number of parking places.     

General retail patronage loyalty as a determinant of consumer outshopping behavior

Consumer outshopping research has shown there are significant, but weak, relationships between consumers' attitudes toward local retailers and the degree to which they shop in local versus outlying areas. An alternative attitude measurement, retail patronage loyalty, is proposed and empirically evaluated. The loyalty scale was shown to be a stronger and more generalizable predictor of consumer outshopping behavior.     

Relationships in business markets: Exchange episodes,value creation,and their empirical assessment

Conclusion David Wilson (1995) has provided us with much grist for thought with his integrated framework for customer-supplier relationship development. In focusing on which constructs are “active” and therefore most meaningful at each stage, he has opened a new vista for research in this area. Our models and empirical research ought to reflect this, but to date they largely have not. I have suggested qualitative, longitudinal research as a preferred next step in gaining the knowledge that we will need to make field-survey, longitudinal research worthwhile. Wilson also is to be lauded for drawing greater attention to value creation as a central undertaking in customer-supplier relationships. Understanding and actualizing value creation (and value sharing) are critical aspects of the market-sensing and customer-linking capabilities in market-driven organizations (Day 1994), yet the mechanisms underlying them and the methodologies for accurately assessing them remain largely unknown. Here, particularly for tool development research, it would seem to be an opportune time for business marketing academics and practitioners to form their own collaborative relationships for mutual gain. His research interests are in working relationships between firms in business markets and measurement techniques. His articles have appeared inHarvard Business Review, Journal of Marketing, Journal of Marketing Research, Management Science, Psychological Bulletin, andPsychometrika, among others. He has been vice president of the Business Marketing Division of the American Marketing Association and is a fellow of the American Psychological Association.     

Strategy in research design and hypothesis testing

The efficiency of a research design may be measured in terms of the degree to which knowledge is enhanced within given resource constraints. Thus, two different types of research design, even though they contain the same number of expected observations, may differ considerably in the amount of information provided. An example is the number N of 32 observations obtained with an analysis of variance witheither 2 factors, 2 levels per factor and a replication of 8or 4 factors, 4 levels per factor and a replication of 2. We analyze and compare the relative efficiencies of regression and variance analysis models and their implications to research strategy development. Three major considerations are evaluated: (1) short versus long time horizon (interval until effects of a decision are realized), (2) small versus large cost of erroneous rejection of the Null Hypothesis and (3) gross versus refined stage of development of the research study. A set of general guidelines towards improved designs is developed.     

Economie en vooruitgangsidee

Summary The object of this article is the relation between economic science and the idea of progress in western civilization. That relation can clearly be observed in classical economic theory (influenced by the Enlightment) and the modern theory of growth (Golden Age Economics). The author rejects any identification of economic progress with an unlimited increase of GNP. He proposes a link between the idea of economic progress and the divine mandate of stewardship, which implies that the inter-subjective scarcity of non-renewable resources and environmental factors should constantly be taken into account. He concludes with some remarks about economic growth as a goal of economic policy.

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Rede uitgesproken bij de aanvaarding van het ambt van gewoon hoogleraar aan de Vrije Universiteit op 10 maart 1972.