Investing equally in risk

Classical optimal strategies are notorious for producing remarkably volatile portfolio weights over time when applied with parameters estimated from data. This is predominantly explained by the difficulty to estimate expected returns accurately. In Lindberg (Bernoulli 15:464–474, 2009), a new parameterization of the drift rates was proposed with the aim to circumventing this difficulty, and a continuous time mean–variance optimal portfolio problem was solved. This approach was further developed in Alp and Korn (Decis Econ Finance 34:21–40, 2011a) to a jump-diffusion setting. In the present paper, we solve a different portfolio problem under the market parameterization in Lindberg (Bernoulli 15:464–474, 2009). Here, the admissible investment strategies are given as the amounts of money to be held in each stock and are allowed to be adapted stochastic processes. In the references above, the admissible strategies are the deterministic and bounded fractions of the total wealth. The optimal strategy we derive is not the same as in Lindberg (Bernoulli 15:464–474, 2009), but it can still be viewed as investing equally in each of the n Brownian motions in the model. As a consequence of the problem assumptions, the optimal final wealth can become non-negative. The present portfolio problem is solved also in Alp and Korn (Submitted, 2011b), using the L ²-projection approach of Schweizer (Ann Probab 22:1536–1575, 1995). However, our method of proof is direct and much easier accessible.     

Modelling the Currency Forward Risk Premium: A New Perspective

In this paper we seek to develop a new approach to the time series analysis of foreign exchange risk premia. We do so by assuming a geometric Brownian process for the spot exchange rate and expressing the no-arbitrage spot-forward price relationship under the historical probability measure. We are thereby able to obtain a stochastic differential equation system linking the spot exchange rate, the forward exchange rate and the risk premium (modelled directly as a mean-reverting diffusion process) which we estimate using Kalman filtering techniques. We are able to use observations at a range of frequencies since the framework we set up does not involve overlapping observations. The model is then applied to the French Franc/USD, DEM/USD, GBP/USD, and Japanese Yen/USD exchange rates from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 1998. For all currencies we find evidence that the forward risk premium is stationary and exhibits substantial positive time variation.     

Sources of airline productivity from carbon emissions: an analysis of operational performance under good and bad outputs

This study incorporates carbon dioxide emissions in productivity measurement in the airline industry and examines the determinants of productivity change. For this purpose a two-stage analysis under joint production of good and bad outputs is employed to compare the operational performance of airlines. In the first stage, productivity index are derived using the Luenberger productivity indicator. In the second stage, productivity change scores derived therefrom are regressed using the random-effects Generalized Least Squares to quantify determinants of productivity change. The paper finds low cost carriers and average number of hours flown per aircraft having a positive impact on productivity under joint production model while demand variable negatively impacts on productivity under market model.     

The political economy of gambling in a neocolonial economy

Conclusion This study has attempted to show the entrenched character of parasitic capitalism in the form of gambling in the Jamaican economy on a scale that massively but painlessly redistributes income from the working class to the petite bourgeoisie. It speaks to a dimension of class exploitation that is often ignored in the focus on large multinational corporations and has parallels in the parasitic forms of capitalism that exploit the black community in the United States. Parasitic capitalism is seen as promoting a form of false class consciousness that seeks outlets to class frustrations in precapitalist illusions of luck and chance that feed the coffers of the grasping petite bourgeoisie with hard-earned working class wage incomes. The data and findings point clearly to the need to either eliminate parasitic capitalist activities such as gambling or alternatively remove it from the control of the petite bourgeoisie and convert the capital accumulated to community and mass-oriented development and social projects.     

Statistical study of waivers of premiums on disablement

Abstract

At the request of the author, the Managing Director of Livförsäkringsbolaget Framtiden, ömsesidigt (the Swedish Mutual Life Insurance Co. ? Future?), gave him an opportunity to make an investigation into the waivers of premiums on disablement. This investigation which at first was suggested by the Chief Mathematician of the Company, K. G. Hagstroem D. Sc., was meant to contain a study of the experience of a single year, 1932. With regard to view points put forward by the author, the original scheme was essentially widened to give a complete study of the whole experience ever since the foundation of the Company. The author wishes to express his gratitude to the Managing Director for placing a working staff at his disposal for carrying out this plan. He also wants to thank Dr. Hagstroem for his appreciation of the views advanced. The author, furthermore, has pleasure to express his thanks to the entire staff of the Company, for aiding him in his work in many ways, and in this connection he wants especially to mention Mr. Erik Grune, the manager of the actuarial department. Finally, he wishes to thank his many collaborators, especially Miss Elsa Fredricsson and Stig Cronvali, M. Bc. for their assistance.