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91.
92.
This paper presents and discusses an analytic simulation procedure which can be used to estimate the asymptotic standard errors of impact multipliers in a structural, nonlinear econometric model. A stochastic simulation approach is used to obtain an approximate estimate of the inconsistencies of multipliers when computed from simulated results. A numerical example for the nonlinear Klein-Goldberger model is provided. 相似文献
93.
Carlo Ferreri 《Decisions in Economics and Finance》1985,8(1):39-46
The Dykstra and Laud's extended gamma process is assumed as prior process over the cumulative hazard function, (t), for a bayesian nonparametric estimation of the reliability functionR(t) from both exact and censored data. Particular cases and interpretative aspects are discussed also in the light of an illustrative example.This research was supported by Ministero della Pubblica Istruzione, grant 40% (Gruppo di ricerca «Modelli probabilistici»). 相似文献
94.
We evaluate the effectiveness of a partial credit guarantee program, implemented in a large Italian region, that aimed to improve the access to credit of small and medium enterprises. Using unique microdata from a broad set of firms, we show that the policy increased the long-term loans for beneficiary firms, while the total volume of bank loans was unaffected. Furthermore, targeted firms benefited from a substantial decrease in interest rates. However, there is some evidence that firms are more likely to default as a consequence of the treatment. Conversely, the results do not point to any significant effect on investments. 相似文献
95.
Carlo Altavilla Raffaella Giacomini Giuseppe Ragusa 《Journal of Applied Econometrics》2017,32(6):1055-1068
The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have underperformed since the early 2000s. On the other hand, survey expectations can accurately predict yields, but they are typically not available for all maturities and/or forecast horizons. We show how survey expectations can be exploited to improve the accuracy of yield curve forecasts given by a base model. We do so by employing a flexible exponential tilting method that anchors the model forecasts to the survey expectations, and we develop a test to guide the choice of the anchoring points. The method implicitly incorporates into yield curve forecasts any information that survey participants have access to—such as information about the current state of the economy or forward‐looking information contained in monetary policy announcements—without the need to explicitly model it. We document that anchoring delivers large and significant gains in forecast accuracy relative to the class of models that are widely adopted by financial and policy institutions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates. 相似文献
96.
97.
The empirical relevance of the competitive storage model 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Carlo Cafiero Eugenio S.A. Bobenrieth H.Juan R.A. Bobenrieth H. Brian D. Wright 《Journal of econometrics》2011,162(1):44-54
The empirical relevance of models of competitive storage arbitrage in explaining commodity price behavior has been seriously challenged in a series of pathbreaking papers by
[Deaton and Laroque, 1992],
[Deaton and Laroque, 1995] and [Deaton and Laroque, 1996]. Here we address their major criticism, that the model is in general unable to explain the degree of serial correlation observed in the prices of twelve major commodities. First, we present a simple numerical version of their model which, contrary to Deaton and Laroque (1992), can generate the high levels of serial correlation observed in commodity prices, if it is parameterized to generate realistic levels of price variation. Then, after estimating the
[Deaton and Laroque, 1995] and [Deaton and Laroque, 1996] model using their data set, model specification and econometric approach, we show that the use of a much finer grid to approximate the equilibrium price function yields quite different estimates for most commodities. Results are obtained for coffee, copper, jute, maize, palm oil, sugar and tin that support the specifications of the storage model with positive constant marginal storage cost and no deterioration as in Gustafson (1958a). Consumption demand has a low response to price and, except for sugar, stockouts are infrequent. The observed magnitudes of serial correlation of price match those implied by the estimated model. 相似文献
98.
99.
Anna Conte Peter G. Moffatt Fabrizio Botti Daniela T. Di Cagno Carlo D’Ippoliti 《Applied economics》2013,45(35):4661-4678
Data on contestants’ choices in Italian Game Show Affari Tuoi are analysed in a way that separates the effect of risk attitude (preferences) from that of beliefs concerning the amount of money that will be offered to contestants in future rounds. This separate identification is possible by virtue of the fact that, at a certain stage of the game, beliefs are not relevant, and risk attitude is the sole determinant of choice. The rational expectations hypothesis is tested by comparing the estimated belief function with the ‘true’ offer function which is estimated extraneously using data on offers actually made to contestants. We find a close correspondence, leading us to accept the rational expectations hypothesis. The importance of belief formation is confirmed by the estimation of a mixture model which establishes that the vast majority of contestants are forward looking as opposed to myopic. 相似文献
100.
Targeting,bias, and expected impact of complex innovations on developing‐country agriculture: evidence from Malawi 下载免费PDF全文
Beliyou Haile Carlo Azzarri Cleo Roberts David J. Spielman 《Agricultural Economics》2017,48(3):317-326
Agronomic analyses of new technologies are often conducted under carefully controlled research station programs or trials managed by self‐selected farmers. Oftentimes, the technologies are then scaled up with minimal evaluation under real‐world conditions. Yet, the interim step between agronomic trials and large‐scale promotion is crucial to generate evidence on the social and economic impact of technologies that is both internally valid and generalizable. The article focuses on a participatory action research program in Malawi designed to test and identify scalable technology options to intensify the smallholder sector and contribute to poverty reduction and food and nutrition security. We examine the socioeconomic characteristics of farmers testing technologies and find evidence of systematic targeting of better‐endowed farmers. After controlling for observable differences using matching and a doubly robust estimator, we find evidence of early positive effects on maize yield and harvest value, although placebo tests suggest possible selection on unobservables. We note that attention should be given to program design and household characterization to better define and improve targeting criteria, technology selection, and external validity. 相似文献