原油破乳剂的筛选与工业应用

针对安庆石化常减压电脱盐装置脱后原油含盐、含水不能满足要求的情况,通过自行研发原油破乳剂动态评价装置对多种原油破乳剂进行筛选,筛选出脱盐率较高的破乳剂,并在安庆石化炼油常减压蒸馏装置上进行了工业应用试验.试验结果表明脱后原油盐质量浓度合格率为93.3%,水质量分数合格率为98.5%,达到了生产工艺要求.     

Asymmetric Inventory Management and the Direction of Sales Changes*

We study manufacturing firms' asymmetric inventory investment in response to sales changes. Focusing on the costs of resource adjustment and stockout that likely differ in sales‐increasing and sales‐decreasing periods, we predict and find that inventory investment declines less during periods with sales decreases than it rises during periods with sales increases. We validate this claim by showing that managers' expectations of future demand and desire to avoid inventory stockouts are important determinants of this asymmetry. In addition, we find that asymmetric inventory investment provides useful information for predicting future sales growth, and that both managers' and analysts' sales forecasts are positively associated with the asymmetry. Lastly, we document that forecasts of future sales growth that incorporate asymmetric inventory investment are associated with lower absolute forecast errors than benchmark forecasts. Overall, we highlight the importance of inventory information in understanding managers' resource adjustment and utilization decisions that have implications for forecasting future demand. Our findings on asymmetric inventory management provide new insights to fundamental analysis based on inventory signals.     

夫妻共同持股、公司治理与家族企业社会责任

婚姻和家庭关系可以通过家庭成员的嵌入而深刻影响家族企业的公司治理及战略决策。文章采用手工搜集的2010-2018年中国A股上市家族企业实际控制人及其配偶持股数据,检验了夫妻共同持股的治理模式对家族企业社会责任的影响。结果发现：相比丈夫单独持股企业,夫妻共同持股家族企业的社会责任表现更差,其CSR总得分与CSR评级均显著更低。机制检验表明,夫妻共同持股时,双方家族成员会更多的介入企业经营治理并担任董监高职务、企业内部控制质量更差、大股东利益侵占更加严重,低效的公司治理水平抑制了家族企业的社会责任表现。文章结论在采用工具变量法、PSM、安慰剂检验、实际控制人婚变等一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立。文章研究表明女性“她力量”未能在家族企业社会责任领域发挥决定性作用。     

美国货币政策溢出效应、中国资产价格波动与资本账户管理

本文以2016年美国加息事件为背景,研究美国货币政策对中国资本流动、资产价格和宏观经济的影响。基于小国开放动态随机一般均衡模型,本文梳理了美国货币政策溢出效应的具体传导渠道,发现国外利率升高后,资本流动具有外部性,导致国内资产价格下跌,其通过金融加速器进一步使国内投资下降、资产价格进一步下跌,从而使得国内资产预期回报进一步下降,加剧资本外流。基于政策和福利分析,本文发现资本账户管理可以有效缓解国外利率冲击对经济波动的影响,同时会提高货币政策的独立性,但也会影响国民财富的最优配置。因此,最优的资本账户管理应同时兼顾宏观审慎和效率两个方面。     

A long-term assessment of finance research performance among Asia–Pacific academic institutions (1990–2008)

We provide a long-term assessment of finance research in the Asia–Pacific region. Similar to the earlier findings in Chan et al. (2001) and Chan et al. (2005), the Asia–Pacific academic institutions, as a group, perform very well during 1990–2008. The two quality-adjusted weighted article metrics suggest that institutions in the region exhibit an increasing trend in the absolute number of articles and the relative percentage share of global research output. The Gini coefficients, while showing that the degree of concentration of research output continues to be high, suggest that the degree of research output concentration steadily decreases over the period. During the sample period, the top five institutions are Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, the University of New South Wales, Chinese University of Hong Kong, National University of Singapore, and Hong Kong Polytechnic University. The top two researchers' percentage share of total research output ranges from a low of 18.7% in Hong Kong University of Science and Technology to a high of 59.8% in RMIT University. Among the top 25 institutions, a total of 14 top researchers (28%) have left their affiliated institutions as of June 1, 2009, suggesting considerable job mobility among active researchers.     

Returns to scale and asset prices

The q‐theory of investment is proposed to explain firm growth effects, where previous papers identify a negative effect of firm growth, including asset growth, real investment and net share issuance, on future stock returns. This paper uses returns to scale from the production function to test the dynamic q‐theory, which predicts that the firm growth effect is theoretically weaker for firms with decreasing returns to scale (DRS) than for non‐DRS firms. Our empirical results generally support the prediction of dynamic q‐theory. However, we find that the dynamic q‐theory explains little of the value, momentum and ROE effects from the standpoint of returns to scale.     

Detecting local environmental change: the role of experience in shaping risk judgments about global warming

Anthropogenic climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events (e.g. flooding, heat waves, and wildfires). As a result, it is often reasoned that as more individuals experience unusual weather patterns that are consistent with changing climate conditions, the more their concern about global warming will increase, and the more motivated they will become to respond and address the problem effectively. Social science research evaluating the relationships between personal experiences with and risk perceptions of climate change, however, show mixed results. Here, we analyze a representative statewide survey of Floridians and compare their risk perceptions of five-year trends in climate change with local weather station data from the five years preceding the survey. The results show that Floridians are unable to detect five-year increases in temperature, but some can detect changes in precipitation. Despite an inability to detect the correct direction of change, respondents were significantly more likely than not to correctly identify the season in which most change occurred. Nevertheless, compared to local experience, risk perceptions of climate change were more strongly predicted by subjective experiences of environmental change, personal beliefs about climate change, and political ideology. Results from the study suggest that long-term changes in climate patterns and extreme weather events need to be interpreted by weather and climate experts within the context of climate change; individuals cannot be expected to detect or comprehend such complex linkages directly.     

ARE WATCH PROCEDURES A CRITICAL INFORMATIONAL EVENT IN THE CREDIT RATINGS PROCESS? AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

The Boot, Milbourn, and Schmeits (2006) model (Boot model) predicts certain credit rating events are likely to be more informative than others and that credit watch procedures are an important driver of such differences. We test the core empirical predictions of their model. Our sample comprises U.S. corporate issuer credit ratings provided by Moody's, 1990–2006. Our findings fail to uncover compelling evidence for the empirical predictions of the Boot model in relation to the role of watch procedures as coordinating mechanisms. Rather, our findings are more supportive of the view that rating agencies are always at an informational advantage relative to investors.     

BAYESIAN STATE SPACE MODELS IN MACROECONOMETRICS

State space models play an important role in macroeconometric analysis and the Bayesian approach has been shown to have many advantages. This paper outlines recent developments in state space modelling applied to macroeconomics using Bayesian methods. We outline the directions of recent research, specifically the problems being addressed and the solutions proposed. After presenting a general form for the linear Gaussian model, we discuss the interpretations and virtues of alternative estimation routines and their outputs. This discussion includes the Kalman filter and smoother, and precision-based algorithms. As the advantages of using large models have become better understood, a focus has developed on dimension reduction and computational advances to cope with high-dimensional parameter spaces. We give an overview of a number of recent advances in these directions. Many models suggested by economic theory are either non-linear or non-Gaussian, or both. We discuss work on the particle filtering approach to such models as well as other techniques that use various approximations – to either the time state and measurement equations or to the full posterior for the states – to obtain draws.