The Status of Econometrics in the Economics Major: A Survey

In this article, the authors describe the place of econometrics in undergraduate economics curricula in all American colleges and universities that offer economics majors as listed in the U.S. News & World Report “Best Colleges 2010” guide (U.S. News & World Report 2009). Data come from online catalogs, departmental Web sites, and online course syllabi. About one-third of the schools require econometrics of all students majoring in economics, about half require it of none, and a sixth require it of some, but not all, economics majors. Among universities with economics PhD programs and liberal arts colleges, almost all those ranked in the top 10 require it. Below the top 10, there is little correlation between ranking and econometrics requirements. Liberal arts econometrics classes are much more likely to require research projects than their counterparts in universities.     

Hyperinflation in a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate: A post Keynesian view

This paper examines the emergence of hyperinflation in a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate from a post Keynesian perspective. Three variables play key roles: distributive conflict, external debt, and expectations about the exchange rate. First, we propose a short-run Kaleckian macro model. Then, we study the long-run behavior of the model by endogenizing the price level and foreign indebtedness. We conclude that the existence of expectations about the nominal exchange rate is crucial to explaining the emergence of hyperinflation.     

Is There a Causal Effect of Working Part‐Time on Current and Future Wages?

In this paper, I study the causal effects of part‐time work on current and future wages. To estimate these effects, I use a random effects model with a wage equation capturing the employment history and a dynamic multinomial probit component for the choice of employment status. Exclusion restrictions from the institutional context are exploited to support identification. The results suggest that working part‐time with few hours has a large causal effect on current wages, but more extensive part‐time work does not reduce current wages. However, both types of part‐time work lead to negative long‐term wage effects.     

Bioenergy Crop Production in the United States: Potential Quantities, Land Use Changes, and Economic Impacts on the Agricultural Sector

The U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Energyjointly analyzed the economic potential for,and impacts of, large-scale bioenergy cropproduction in the United States. Anagricultural sector model (POLYSYS) wasmodified to include three potential bioenergycrops (switchgrass, hybrid poplar, and willow). At farmgate prices of US $2.44/GJ, anestimated 17 million hectares of bioenergycrops, annually yielding 171 million dry Mg ofbiomass, could potentially be produced at aprofit greater than existing agricultural usesfor the land. The estimate assumes highproductivity management practices are permittedon Conservation Reserve Program lands. Traditional crops prices are estimated toincrease 9 to 14 percent above baseline pricesand farm income increases annually by US $6.0billion above baseline.At farmgate prices of US $1.83/GJ, anestimated 7.9 million hectares of bioenergycrops, annually yielding 55 million dry Mg ofbiomass, could potentially be produced at aprofit greater than existing agricultural usesfor the land. The estimate assumes managementpractices intended to achieve highenvironmental benefits on Conservation ReserveProgram lands. Traditional crops prices areestimated to increase 4 to 9 percent abovebaseline prices and farm income increasesannually by US $2.8 billion above baseline.     

Tobit or OLS? An empirical evaluation under different diary window lengths

Researchers analysing time-use data often estimate limited dependent variable models because time spent must be nonnegative and cannot be more than the total amount of time in a given observation period. While the traditional empirical technique applied to such cases is maximum likelihood estimation of a Tobit (censored regression) model, recent debate has questioned whether linear models estimated via Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) are preferable. On the one hand, Tobit models are deemed necessary to address the significant censoring (i.e. large numbers of zeroes) typically found in time-use data, in the face of which OLS estimators would be biased and inconsistent. Yet, optimization occurs over a longer period than that covered by the typical time diary (often a day), and thus some argue that reported zeroes represent a measurement problem rather than true nonparticipation in the activity, in which case OLS would be preferred. We provide direct empirical evidence on this question using the Australian Time Use Surveys, which record time-use information for two consecutive diary days, by estimating censored and linear versions of a parental child care model for both 24-hour and 48-hour windows of observation in order to determine the empirical consequences of estimation technique and diary length.     

Identification, weak instruments, and statistical inference in econometrics

Abstract.  We discuss statistical inference problems associated with identification and testability in econometrics. We consider inference in non-parametric models and weakly identified structural models (weak instruments). We point out that many ill‐defined statistical problems, such as non‐testable hypotheses, occur in these areas and are typically associated with asymptotic approximations. In non‐parametric models, such problems include testing moments and inference under heteroscedasticity or serial dependence of unknown form. For weakly identified structural models, difficulties are typically associated with improper pivots, and we review recent developments aimed at proposing more reliable procedures, including alternative proposed statistics, bounds, projection, split‐sampling, conditioning, Monte Carlo tests. JEL classification: C1, C12, C14, C15, C3, C5     

COOPERATION: THE POWER OF A SINGLE WORD? SOME EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE ON WORDING AND GENDER EFFECTS IN A GAME OF CHICKEN

Framing has been widely shown to affect decision making. In this paper, we investigate experimentally whether, and to what extent, cooperative behaviour in a Game of Chicken may be impacted by a very basic change in the labelling of the strategies. Our within‐subject experimental design involves two treatments. The only difference between them is that we introduce either a socially‐oriented wording (I cooperate/I do not cooperate) or colours (red/blue) to designate strategies. The level of cooperation appears to be higher in the socially‐oriented context, but only when uncertainty as regards the type of the partner is manipulated, and especially among females.