Evaluating the potential of agent-based modelling to capture consumer grocery retail store choice behaviours

Evolving consumer behaviours with regards to store and channel choice, shopping frequency, shopping mission and spending heighten the need for robust spatial modelling tools for use within retail analytics. In this paper, we report on collaboration with a major UK grocery retailer to assess the feasibility of modelling consumer store choice behaviours at the level of the individual consumer. We benefit from very rare access to our collaborating retailers’ customer data which we use to develop a proof-of-concept agent-based model (ABM). Utilising our collaborating retailers’ loyalty card database, we extract key consumer behaviours in relation to shopping frequency, mission, store choice and spending. We build these observed behaviours into our ABM, based on a simplified urban environment, calibrated and validated against observed consumer data. Our ABM is able to capture key spatiotemporal drivers of consumer store choice behaviour at the individual level. Our findings could afford new opportunities for spatial modelling within the retail sector, enabling the complexity of consumer behaviours to be captured and simulated within a novel modelling framework. We reflect on further model development required for use in a commercial context for location-based decision-making.     

Eco-efficiency and firm value

Eco-efficiency refers to a process that seeks to maximize the effectiveness of business processes while minimizing their impacts on the environment. Fundamental to eco-efficiency is adoption of a management philosophy that stimulates the search for environmental improvements that yield parallel economic benefits [President’s Council on Sustainable Development, 1996a. Sustainable America: A New Consensus for Prosperity, Opportunity, and a Healthy Environment. Government Printing Office, Washington DC; President’s Council on Sustainable Development, 1996b. Eco-efficiency: Task Force Report. Government Printing Office, Washington DC; World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), 2000. Eco-efficiency: Creating More Value with Less Input. Geneva]. Eco-efficiency is increased by activities that create economic value while continuously reducing ecological impacts and the use of natural resources [DeSimone, L., Popoff, F., 1997. Eco-efficiency: The Business Link To Sustainable Development. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA]. This study empirically examines the proposition that implementation of eco-efficient business strategies is associated with higher firm value. We posit that, firms which adopt eco-efficient business strategies and, as a consequence, achieve reduced costs and increased profits should be more highly valued by the market than similar firms that do not adopt eco-efficient business strategies. Our empirical testing supports this proposition.     

Atrial septal aneurysm

As we begin to see more echocardiograms in the medical records that are available to us, we are faced with assessing some findings that leave us with questions about their significance. One such finding is the atrial septal aneurysm (ASA).     

An Empirical Analysis of Tenant Selection Under Federal Rent Supplement Programs: A First Step

The purpose of this study is to consider the question of whether characteristics of applicants for federally subsidized housing can be used in predicting whether one is accepted or rejected by management as a tenant. Using probit analysis, a statistical model was developed for use in assisting management in objectively screening applicants. Factors found significant in determining the probability of acceptance or rejection were credit ratings, character references, length of time employed, and student status. The percent of rent subsidized by government and sex of household head had little effect on applicant acceptance. Although a meaningful model for estimating the probability of eviction could not be developed, low eviction rates resulting from the tenant selection model suggest that it may serve as a reasonable proxy.     

Osteopetrosis

This case study describes the fairly rare entity of osteopetrosis and points out how a seemingly insignificant "anemia" can, on thorough investigation, be found to be a very significant disease with a poor prognosis.     

Extreme coexceedances in new EU member states’ stock markets

We analyze the financial integration of the new European Union (EU) member states’ stock markets using the negative (positive) coexceedance variable that counts the number of large negative (large positive) returns on a given day across the countries. A similar analysis is performed for the old EU countries. We use a multinomial logit model to investigate how persistence, asset classes, and volatility are related to the coexceedance variables. We find that the effects differ (a) between negative and positive coexceedance variables (b) between old and new EU member states, and (c) before and after the EU enlargement in 2004, suggesting a closer connection of new EU stock markets to those in Western Europe.     

A macro-framework for successful development banks

The large-scale failures of development banks in the 1970s and 1980s meant that they all but disappeared from the development agenda. However, there are still a large number of development banks worldwide that operate with various degrees of success. Some governments are also looking to re-establish such banks to address the shortage of finance for higher-risk market segments. To avoid a repeat of the earlier failures, government policy needs to be informed by an objective framework for the success of these banks. This article, based on economic theory and informed by case studies, outlines such a framework. It addresses the following six dimensions of these banks: enabling environment, mandate, regulation and supervision, governance and management, financial sustainability and performance assessment. Development banking remains a risky initiative but, managed appropriately, and using this framework, it can help achieve development objectives.