关于商业银行客户价值评估体系的研究

客户关系管理作为商业银行经营管理的重要组成,在当今市场竞争愈发激烈的背景下发挥着越来越重要的作用,而客户价值评估则是客户关系管理的重要基础。基于此,本文以某商业银行的某分行为例,选取了11项代表客户价值、客户对分行价值、客户潜在价值的指标,并运用聚类分析法对客户进行分层分类。通过客户分层分类结果来评估不同客户对分行的价值贡献,并制定差异化的客户维护策略,合理分配各项资源,不仅能实现更高效的客户关系管理,更能够实现商业银行的可持续发展。     

人行广州分行创新开展县支行自安全网络部署试点取得成效

常规的网络防御理念往往局限在网关级别、网络边界等方面的防御,而内部网络安全成了防御的空白地带。当前人民银行系统地市中支及县市支行普遍存在科技人员匮乏、身兼数职、技术水平有限等情况,日常计算机运维、网络管理压力较大。为提高辖区内网络安全管理水平,降低科技运维管理难度,人民银行广州分行针对辖区内网络管理现状,积极探索,通过前期调研、深入分析、反复测试等方式,在辖区内人民银行南雄支行创新开展了自安全网络部署项目,实现了对设备可视化的监控管理,降低了网络维护方面的技术水平要求和人员投入,极大地增强了网络的安全性与稳定性,并取得实效。     

产业投资基金真的可以驱动经济结构优化吗——产业基金对经济增长与产业升级驱动程度的PVAR模型分析

在中国经济转型过程中,众多地方政府选择产业投资基金作为优化经济结构的助推工具,但实践中各地方产业基金的投资效果与期望目标存在较大差异,因此需要对产业基金的经济优化效应进行检验。运用诺依曼定理分析产业基金与经济结构优化的互动机制并提出研究假设,采用面板向量自回归模型将经济结构优化表示为经济增长与产业升级,并与产业投资基金进行实证检验。结果表明,产业基金并不是经济结构优化的驱动因素,而只是其结果。一方面,产业基金并不会直接驱动经济增长与产业结构升级,而是通过增加金融投资总量间接作用于经济结构优化;另一方面,产业升级与经济增长会显著吸引产业投资基金。鉴于大量设立产业投资基金对于优化经济结构效果不显著,因而应当重点促进多元金融产业发展、提高企业融资能力、发展多种形式的金融工具。     

什么样的数字创新生态系统能提高区域创新绩效——基于NCA与QCA的研究

什么样的数字创新生态系统有助于提高区域创新绩效是亟待解决的热点问题。采用必要条件分析（NCA）和模糊集定性比较分析（fsQCA）两种方法,对我国内地31个省（区、市）进行实证分析。研究发现：①数字企业、政府、高校及科研机构、数字创新基础设施、数字人才和金融服务是数字创新生态系统的关键构成,但单个要素并不是提高区域创新绩效的必要条件;②4种数字创新生态系统要素组态有助于提高区域创新绩效,构成的数字创新生态系统分别是政府引导的智力聚集型、企业开拓的环境支撑型、主体多元的综合发展型和企业主导的资本驱动型;③各地应因地制宜,选择合适的数字创新生态系统,培育区域创新新动能,助推“数字中国”新发展。     

Nonlinearity between Trade Openness and Economic Development

This paper utilizes the instrumental variable threshold regressions approach to reassess the trade–development link. It finds evidence that trade openness contributes to uneven development. Greater trade openness tends to have beneficial effects on real development of high‐income countries. For low‐income ones, however, trade openness appears to influence real income in a significant and negative way. The data also reveal that greater trade openness has a positive effect on capital accumulation, productivity growth, and financial development in high‐income countries, but a negative impact in low‐income ones.     

The online laboratory: conducting experiments in a real labor market

Online labor markets have great potential as platforms for conducting experiments. They provide immediate access to a large and diverse subject pool, and allow researchers to control the experimental context. Online experiments, we show, can be just as valid—both internally and externally—as laboratory and field experiments, while often requiring far less money and time to design and conduct. To demonstrate their value, we use an online labor market to replicate three classic experiments. The first finds quantitative agreement between levels of cooperation in a prisoner’s dilemma played online and in the physical laboratory. The second shows—consistent with behavior in the traditional laboratory—that online subjects respond to priming by altering their choices. The third demonstrates that when an identical decision is framed differently, individuals reverse their choice, thus replicating a famed Tversky-Kahneman result. Then we conduct a field experiment showing that workers have upward-sloping labor supply curves. Finally, we analyze the challenges to online experiments, proposing methods to cope with the unique threats to validity in an online setting, and examining the conceptual issues surrounding the external validity of online results. We conclude by presenting our views on the potential role that online experiments can play within the social sciences, and then recommend software development priorities and best practices.     

Flows of people,flows of ideas,and the inequality of nations

The present paper examines a neglected determinant of aggregate productivity: temporary cross-border flows of people. We hypothesize that interaction between people from different nations facilitates the international diffusion of ideas, thus stimulating aggregate productivity. In order to assess the causal impact of people flows on productivity, we construct an instrument for people flows. By analogy to the trade/growth literature, this instrument is derived from a fitted gravity equation involving geographic determinants of bilateral travel flows. Our cross-section analysis reveal that greater international interaction leads to higher productivity; a very similar result, qualitatively as well as quantitatively, is obtained when we employ dynamic panel data methods for the purpose of identification.     

The role of role uncertainty in modified dictator games

We compare behavior in modified dictator games with and without role uncertainty. Subjects choose between a selfish action, a costly surplus creating action (altruistic behavior) and a costly surplus destroying action (spiteful behavior). While costly surplus creating actions are the most frequent under role uncertainty (64%), selfish actions become the most frequent without role uncertainty (69%). Also, the frequency of surplus destroying choices is negligible with role uncertainty (1%) but not so without it (11%). A classification of subjects into four different types of interdependent preferences (Selfish, Social Welfare maximizing, Inequity Averse and Competitive) shows that the use of role uncertainty overestimates the prevalence of Social Welfare maximizing preferences in the subject population (from 74% with role uncertainty to 21% without it) and underestimates Selfish and Inequity Averse preferences. An additional treatment, in which subjects undertake an understanding test before participating in the experiment with role uncertainty, shows that the vast majority of subjects (93%) correctly understand the payoff mechanism with role uncertainty, but yet surplus creating actions were most frequent. Our results warn against the use of role uncertainty in experiments that aim to measure the prevalence of interdependent preferences.     

Innovations,patent races and endogenous growth

This paper presents a model of innovations and endogenous economic growth with two main assumptions: first, the cost of searching for innovations differs across innovations, and second, innovations take time to find. The paper shows that given these two assumptions together, competition leads to patent races and to duplication of innovative activity. The paper then shows that duplication significantly reduces the effect of scale on growth. It also shows that competitive R&D creates too much research on easy innovations, and too little research on the difficult ones. Finally, the paper shows that risk sharing might increase duplication and reduce growth.