Contrarian Investment Strategies in a European Context

In this paper we study value strategies for four European countries (France, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom). We find an outperformance for all four value variables which are investigated: the earnings-to-price (E/P) ratio, the cash-flow-to-price (CF/P) ratio, the book-to-market (B/M) ratio and the dividend yield. This outperformance is especially remarkable for the CF/P ratio, which amounts to 20.8% between the top and bottom quintiles in a univariate model. In a regression analysis, in which all four value variables as well as a correction for the size effect are taken into account, we find a difference of 11.8% for the CF/P ratio. We demonstrate that this result cannot be explained by risk differences alone. Our findings confirm the outperformance of value strategies as found earlier by Chan, Hamao and Lakonishok (1991) and Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994) for Japan and the United States respectively.     

Asia-Pacific Tiers of Change

This article starts by outlining five explanations of economic growth and four stages of economic development in the Asia-Pacific region. the developed countries there include Japan, Australia and New Zealand. the ‘Asian tigers’ of Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan form a top tier of post-Japan industrialisers. A second generation of ‘tigers’ includes Malaysia in the vanguard, with Thailand and the PRC following. A third tier of industrialisers may include countries as diverse as Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia and, perhaps, the countries of the Indian sub-continent. Such a classification provides a context for discussing various approaches to human resources and industrial relations issues in this article and the ones that follow.     

Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series

Recently proposed tests for unit root and other nonstationarity of Robinson (1994a) are applied to an extended version of the data set used by Nelson and Plosser (1982). Unusually, the tests are efficient (against appropriate parametric alternatives), the null can be any member of the I(d) class, and the null limit distribution is chi-squared. The conclusions vary substantially across the 14 series, and across different models for the disturbances (which, also unusually, include the Bloomfield spectral model). Overall, the consumer price index and money stock seem the most nonstationary, while industrial production and unemployment rate seem the closest to stationarity.     

Momentum and Reversals in Equity-Index Returns During Periods of Abnormal Turnover and Return Dispersion

We document new patterns in the dynamics between stock returns and trading volume. Specifically, we find substantial momentum (reversals) in consecutive weekly returns when the latter week has unexpectedly high (low) turnover. This pattern is evident in equity indices, index futures, and individual stocks. Similarly, we also find that the autocorrelation in equity‐index returns is increasing with the unexpected dispersion across the latter week's firm‐level returns. Weeks with extreme turnover and dispersion shocks (both high and low) tend to have more macroeconomic news releases. Our findings bear on understanding price formation and the economic interpretation of turnover and dispersion shocks.     

Labor composition and long-run employment in a minimum-wage economy

This article examines the long-run consequences of minimum wage regulation within the framework of a two-labor-sector growth model, where a minimum real wage is effective only in the “unskilled” labor sector. The assumption of heterogeneous labor makes possible a stable steady-state growth equilibrium. Conditions for the stability and existence of steady-state equilibrium are presented. A significant implication of the model is that selective immigration policies that encourage the influx of skilled workers would have the long-run effect of increasing the employment rate of unskilled labor, even in cases where the two labor sectors are nearly perfect substitutes.     

On Mixed Strategies for Development

The paper investigates whether mixed trade strategies of import substitution and export promotion, if permanently or temporarily applied, can generate pro-tradables movements in the real exchange rate. Static and dynamic general-equilibrium modeling with a nontradables sector and alternative types of tradables is used to explore real exchange rate responses to uniform and nonuniform trade policy interventions. The paper shows that uniform, permanent interventions are neutral, having no impact on the equilibrium real exchange rate. The real exchange rate effect of temporary uniform interventions is, however, in general ambiguous when prices and incomes are fully endogenized. The breakdown of Lerner symmetry or of neutrality following uniform temporary interventions does not mean that intended promotion of tradables necessarily results in a pro-tradables movement in the real exchange rate.     

Are market pioneers intrinsically stronger than later entrants?

Are market pioneers more successful because they started with superior skills and resources? The absolute pioneer advantage hypothesis is that because market pioneering is desirable, firms with superior skills and resources naturally choose to pioneer new markets. The comparative advantage hypothesis is that market evolution changes success requirements. Market pioneer skills and resources differ from, but are not superior to later entrants. Empirical results across 171 diversification entrants tend to support the comparative advantage hypothesis. Skill and resource profiles are provided for market pioneers, early followers, and late entrants.