A simple correction of the WACC discount rate for default risk and bankruptcy costs

Standard discounted cash flow approaches suffer from a rudimental modeling of the possibility of a default, as the main characteristics such as the default probability and potential bankruptcy costs are commonly disregarded. This paper aims at providing a tractable extension of the well-known WACC approach for both default risk and bankruptcy costs. The corrected WACC discount rate reveals that default risk results in a systematically higher WACC because the tax component is scaled by the survivorship probability and an aditional component for bankruptcy costs must be added. This difference between the classical WACC discount rate and the simple modified WACC rate can be remarkable especially for firms from businesses with high bankruptcy costs and a relevant default probability.     

The systematic risk of corporate bonds: default risk,term risk,and index choice

In this paper, we empirically examine the systematic risk of corporate bonds in the Euro area. Based on a unique sample of 784 bonds from 1999 to 2010, we show that the systematic risk of constructed bond portfolios and individual bonds—measured against three different market indices—depends on credit quality, term risk, and index choice. A significant increase in systematic risk for lower-rated bonds is observed following the start of the financial crisis. In multi-factor models, bond portfolios load significantly on default and term risk, which are included as additional factors. Conducting Fama and MacBeth cross-sectional tests, we find that default and term risk are priced with economically relevant premiums that range from 0.35 to 0.62 % per month. Our results are robust to the inclusion of characteristics such as rating and time to maturity.     

Development and implementation of customer solutions: A study of process dynamics and market shaping

A broad, dynamic network perspective on solution processes remains scarce. This article presents the process of developing and implementing customer solutions and its effects on the wider business environment by investigating customers and suppliers in the global mining industry (Australia, Chile, and Sweden), analyzing the deployment of a new customer solution, and assessing the changes to the competitive environment and focal firms' relationships with other customers and suppliers. It shows that the forces that drive customer and supplier interests and motivation to co-develop customer solutions may change over time, thus redefining the aim and scope of solutions and creating failure risks. Customers present problems; suppliers respond, on the basis of not only the feasibility of the customer-specific solution but also of their evaluation of future solutions in a broader market; then suppliers aim to standardize successful solutions across markets. Customers want close supplier relationships and unique solutions but also like standardized and repeatable solutions, so they can share development costs with competitors and expose the supplier to competition to avoid lock-in effects. From a network perspective, a novel solution can have a market-shaping effect and evoke reactions from other actors who want to enhance their market position. However, these changes are not necessarily deliberate, and the dynamics that market introductions of solutions trigger may be difficult to predict.     

Business model innovation and decision making: uncovering mechanisms for coping with uncertainty

As a research subject, business model innovation spans the strategy, innovation, and entrepreneurship fields. Yet, despite the importance of the concept, prior work has paid little attention to how decision-makers cope with uncertainty and gain understanding about interdependencies in new business model configurations. To address this gap, we combine top-down theorising and evidence-based exploration and seek to unpack some of the coping mechanisms that operate in the evolutionary view of business model innovation. Using in-depth interviewing to collect data, our study reveals five strategies – customer centricity, value co-creation, capability evolution, ecosystem growth, and adaptive pricing – that decision-makers apply to cope with uncertainty in business model innovation. We find that coping mechanisms support decision making during the development of new business models. Furthermore, we find that the five coping strategies delineate decision making for value proposition, value creation, and value capture configurations in more detail than existing literature has described. Our findings have important implications for decision making in business model innovation.     

Regulations for the Eighth International Congress of Actuaries

Abstract

The present paper proposes and investigates a procedure for numerical evaluation of the transition probabilities for a time-inhomogeneous Markov process when the intensities are known (estimated). The procedure is based on Taylor-expansion of the transition probabilities linked with the Chapman-Kolmogorov equations.     

Is Busy Really Busy? Board Governance Revisited

We investigate the relationship between firm governance and the board's position in the social network of directors. Using a sample of 133 German firms over the four‐year period from 2003 to 2006, we find that firms with intensely connected supervisory boards are (1) associated with lower firm performance, and (2) pay their executives significantly more. We interpret these results as evidence of poor monitoring in firms with directors who are more embedded in the social network. In both cases, simple measures for busy directors that were used by other studies in the past fail to show any significant pattern. The findings suggest that the quality and structural position of additional board seats may play a bigger role than simply the number of board appointments.     

Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters that foster incentives to scatter forecasts around a consensus forecast.     

Approaches towards a generic methodology for storage of hazardous energy carriers and waste products

Energy carriers – either conventional or ‘new’ ones – have to be provided in large amounts to meet the requirements of permanent availability and reliable supply of electricity. Depending on their state of aggregation, energy carriers are either stored in large masses (if solid or liquid) or at elevated pressures (if gaseous). Both impose the hazard of large-scale fire, in the latter case additionally the danger of explosion or unintended release. Very similar hazards occur for wastes. Solid wastes are present in large masses and only a small part is recycled. Most of the solid wastes are used in energy conversion. The main gaseous waste is CO₂. During capturing also the hazard of unintended release exists. In this article, existing approaches for safe storage and fire prevention are discussed and a generic methodology is outlined. This methodology consists of the following steps:

? gaining knowledge about the behaviour of the material stored (reactivity, thermal stability, etc.),

? assessing the environmental conditions for the storage site (neighbourhood, safety distances, etc.),

? assessment of prospective consequences of an incident and

? development of individual loss prevention conceptions.

All steps require both experimental testing and theoretical considerations about accident scenarios as integral parts of the methodology.     

Criteria for the Stochastic Ordering of Random Sums,with Actuarial Applications

It is shown that vectors ( S M 1 , … , S Mn ) and ( S' M'1 , …, S' M'n ) of random sums of positive random variables are stochastically ordered by upper orthant dependence, lower orthant dependence, concordance or by the supermodular ordering whenever their corresponding random numbers of terms ( M 1 , … , M n ) and ( M' 1 , … , M' n ) are themselves ordered in this fashion. Actuarial applications of these results are given to different dependence structures for the collective risk model with several classes of business.     

Can NN-algorithms and macroeconomic data improve OLS industry returns forecasts?∗

Using an extensive range of macroeconomic indicators and a number of two-stage models mixing OLS and a non-parametric approach known as the nearest neighbour algorithm, the authors analyse the potential for improving forecasts of US industry returns over those built by OLS on industry-specific variables only. Basic performance is measured by the average cross-sectional correlation over time between the 55 forecasted returns and the realized returns across industries. Since investors and asset managers typically want a steady performance over time, the volatility of this cross-sectional correlation is further taken into account in an adaptation of the Sharpe Ratio. Strong evidence is found in favour of certain macroeconomic factors as dominant industry return predictors, and some two-stage models based either purely on OLS or a mix between OLS and the non-linear model can lift both cross-sectional forecasting correlation and Sharpe Ratio. However, viewed overall in relation to the benchmark OLS model, performance is not consistently improved by any particular model.