Constructing a knowledge‐based system to aid scenario‐based strategic planning: an application to the European airline industry

This paper explores the use of scenario planning and the design of a knowledge‐based system in strategic decision making, in the context of the European airline industry. Several innovative strategies were derived, as well as other key recommendations based on sound strategic reasoning, and participants testified to the effectiveness of the approach in stretching their thinking. The requirement to draft strategies as expert system rules, with reasons, was useful in clarifying thinking and achieving group consensus. This methodology, therefore, aids effectiveness of the scenario planning process itself, while providing a dynamic, accessible means of storing the resulting strategic thinking. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE ECONOMICS OF HIGH-CONCENTRATE BEEF PRODUCTION AS AFFECTED BY BREED-TYPE,SEX, SUPPLEMENTARY HAY AND TYPE OF CEREAL

This paper presents the economic implications of an experiment to compare pure Friesian, Welsh Black x Friesian and Charolais x Friesian steers and heifers given high-concentrate diets of protein, mineral, supplemented ground barley, fed with or without a pound of hay daily, or supplemented ground maize fed with a pound of hay. The favourable economic conditions that brought about a rapid spread of high-concentrate feeding and the subsequent development of unfavourable conditions are briefly reviewed. The physical results of the experiment are presented and are followed by the main body of the paper which consists of applying economic data to the results to obtain gross-margin and profit per animal and annual profit per animal space. Besides the experimental treatments, the effects of cereal, carcass and calf prices and the effect of E.E.C. marketing conditions are discussed.     

Technology and Business Ethics Theory

The various theories about business ethics need to take much more notice of technology, realising that technology has its own increasing momentum which is driving business, and that, whereas business people think they control technology as a simple neutral means to their ends, in fact the reverse is true: business is the servant of technological development. Jacques Ellul, however, offers some hope for the future to help us 'reappropriate our humanity'. Dr Davies is a senior lecturer in Strategic Management and Business Ethics at the Buckingham Business School, Buckinghamshire College [a College of Brunel University], Newland Park Campus, Gorelands Lane, Chalfton-St-Giles, Buckinghamshire HP8 4PB (Tel 01494-874441, ext. 2240; fax 01494-874230; Email pdavie01@buckscol.ac.uk). His background is in mining and production engineering and he would like to hear from others interested in the new field of engineering ethics.     

very common currencies

How far will European harmonisation go? Christie Davies of Reading University peers round the corner and discovers that a little harmonisation is not nearly as bad as a lot.     

The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects

This paper examines the relation between the variance of equity returns and several explanatory variables. It is found that equity variances have a strong positive association with both financial leverage and, contrary to the predictions of the options literature, interest rates. To a substantial degree, the negative elasticity of variance with respect to value of equity that is part of market folklore is found to be attributable to financial leverage. A maximum likehood estimator is developed for this elasticity that is substantially more efficient than extant estimation procedures.