Effects of Pre-Salt Regulation on the Market Value of Petrobras

This article measures the impacts of the process of pre-salt development related to new regulations in Brazil applicable to the offshore pre-salt hydrocarbon reserves. For this purpose, Bai and Perron (2003 Bai, J., and Perron, P. (2003). Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18, 1–22. doi:10.1002/jae.659[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Chow (1960 Chow, G. C. (1960). Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions. Econometrica, 28(3), 591–605. doi:10.2307/1910133[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) tests were used to identify structural breakpoints in the behavior of the price of Petrobras stock through a model that includes the ratio of the stock prices of Vale and Petrobras, and the proven oil reserves of Petrobras from 2000 to 2014. The results indicated structural breakpoints in the period of regulation change and when Petrobras issued new shares to raise funds for pre-salt development.     

An Approach to Support Negotiation Processes with Imprecise Information Multicriteria Additive Models

This paper discusses the possible uses of the VIP (Variable Interdependent Parameters) Analysis software and methodology in negotiation support. VIP Analysis is a decision support tool that incorporates complementary approaches to deal with the aggregation of multi-criteria performances under imprecise information. Its purpose is to support the evaluation of a discrete set of alternatives according to multi-attribute additive value functions. We propose extensions of the methodology of VIP Analysis to address explicitly the differences among the actors in terms of the weights space.     

Some results on relocation policies

In this paper, we derive general results concerning optimal relocation policy under some assumptions. We consider a firm that is located in a specific location, producing at a certain level of efficiency. With time, the firm can decide to change its location to a new and more efficient site, paying relocation costs. Moreover, we assume that these new sites become available according to a Poisson process, and that the levels of efficiency improvement inherent to each one of these sites are random variables. With this framework, we characterise certain parameters of the optimal relocation policy. In particular, we characterise the expected relocation time and we prove that it depends on the distribution of the level of efficiency improvement only through an expected value. Therefore, the optimal policy shows a kind of robustness in terms of the stochastic assumptions of the problem, which has a major impact in the application of relocation policies. In addition, we also characterise the optimal relocation time. Impacts on the final results driven by the characteristics of the firm's original location site, the market environment and the way in which risk is modelled are studied numerically. The overall results are in line with economic intuition.     

Statistical analysis of financial time series under the assumption of local stationarity

The aim of this paper is to apply a nonparametric methodology developed by Donoho et al(2003 IEEE Trans. Signal Processing 53614–27) for estimating an autocovariance sequence to the statistical analysis of the return of securities and discuss the advantages offered by this approach over other existing methods such as fixed-window-length segmentation procedures. Theoretical properties of adaptivity of this estimation method have been proved for a specific class of time series, namely the class of locally stationary processes, with an autocovariance structure which varies slowly over time in most cases but might exhibit abrupt changes of regime. This method is based on an algorithm that selects empirically from the data the tiling of the time–frequency plane which exposes best in the least-squares sense the underlying second-order time-varying structure of the time series, and so may properly describe the time-inhomogeneous variations of speculative prices. The applications we consider here mainly concern the analysis of structural changes occurring in stock market returns, VaR estimation and the comparison between the variation structure of stock index returns in developed markets and in developing markets.     

ELECTRE TRI for Groups with Imprecise Information on Parameter Values

ELECTRE TRI is a well-known method to assign actions to predefined ordered categories, considering multiple criteria. Using this method requires setting many parameters, which is often a difficult task. We consider the case where a group of Decision Makers (DMs) is unsure of which values each parameter should take, which may result from insufficient, imprecise or contradictory information, as well as from lack of consensus among the group members. In a framework where DMs provide constraints bounding and interrelating the parameter values, rather than fixing precise figures, we discuss the problem of finding the best and worst category that each action may attain.     

A systematic literature review identifying associations between outcomes and quality of life (QoL) or healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) in schizophrenia

Aims: There have been no systematic literature reviews (SLRs) evaluating the identified association between outcomes (e.g. clinical, functional, adherence, societal burden) and Quality-of-Life (QoL) or Healthcare Resource Utilization (HCRU) in schizophrenia. The objective of this study was to conduct a SLR of published data on the relationship between outcomes and QoL or HCRU.

Materials and methods: Electronic searches were conducted in Embase and Medline, for articles which reported on the association between outcomes and QoL or HCRU. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to identify the most relevant articles and studies and extract their data. A summary table was developed to illustrate the strength of associations, based on p-values and correlations.

Results: One thousand and two abstracts were retrieved; five duplicates were excluded; 997 abstracts were screened and 95 references were retained for full-text screening. Thrirty-one references were included in the review. The most commonly used questionnaire, which also demonstrated the strongest associations (defined as a p?Clinical Global Impression–Severity (CGI-S) with QoL (EQ5D), relapse with HCRU, and remission with QoL (EQ5D). Lastly, functioning (Work Rehabilitation Questionnaire [WORQ] and Personal and Social Performance Scale [PSP]) was found to be associated to QoL (QLS and Subjective Well-being under Neuroleptics Questionnaire [SWN]).

Limitations: This study included data from an 11-year period, and other instruments less frequently used may be further investigated.

Conclusions: The evidence suggests that the PANSS is the clinical outcome that currently provides the most frequent and systematic associations with HCRU and QoL endpoints in schizophrenia.     

Inflation expectations in the euro area: are consumers rational?

In this paper, we propose a quantitative measure for inflation expectations based on consumer survey data. Thereafter, we proceed to testing the rationality assumption. This issue is of noteworthy interest in its own as it is commonly assumed in the theoretical modelling literature that the rational expectations hypothesis holds. This analysis is conducted for the euro area as a whole, as well as for several member countries, using a sample covering the last two decades. Moreover, we also assess if the conclusions hold when one focuses on the post-euro introduction period.     

Multi-destination firms and the impact of exchange-rate risk on trade

Based on a French firm-level database that combines information on balance-sheet and destination-specific export information over the period 1995–2009, we document a new stylized fact related to the heterogeneous reaction of exporters to RER volatility: we show that strongly multi-destination firms tend to reduce significantly more their exports to a destination that faces higher exchange-rate volatility. We also show that, following an exchange-rate volatility shock in a given country, strongly multi-destination firms increase exports to all other destinations served. This specific behavior of multi-destination firms has significant aggregate implications. First, the bilateral aggregate impact is increasingly negative with the weight of multi-destination firms in total exports towards the considered destination. Second, the reallocation behavior of large, multi-destination firms ultimately translates into stable total French exports (summed over all destinations).     

“From warfare to welfare”: Contextualising Arrow and Schelling's models of racial inequalities (1968–1972)*

ABSTRACT

This paper focuses on Arrow and Schelling's contributions to the study of racial inequality in the late 1960s. We start from the authors’ account of the origin of their work. Then, we locate the “material origin” of the models at the RAND Corporation in the late 1960s and show how it relates to the transfer of the RAND tool-box to the study of welfare issues. Finally, we describe how Arrow's and Schelling's modelling strategies relate to their conception of “science for action,” inherited from their “warfare” work.     

Exports and labor costs: evidence from a French policy

We investigate the role that labor costs hold in exporters’ performance. To do so, we exploit a large-scale French reform that granted most firms a tax credit proportional to the wagebill of their employees paid below a given threshold. This policy effectively translated into a cut in labor cost whose magnitude varies depending on firm-specific wage structures. We use the predicted treatment intensity based on pre-reform composition of the labor force as an instrument for the actual policy-induced firm-level change in labor costs. Although our point estimates are consistent with commonly estimated firm-level trade elasticities combined with reasonable labor shares in total costs, coefficients are found to be very noisy, suggesting lack of robust evidence of a causal effect of the policy. We discuss several potential explanations for our results as well as their implications.