Spurious deterministic seasonality and autocorrelation corrections with quarterly data: Further Monte Carlo results

Following recent work of Franses, Hylleberg and Lee (FHL), this paper analyses the consequences of fitting a deterministic seasonal model to a quarterly time series which can be (at least approximately) described by a seasonal unit root(s) model. Besides the distribution of the coefficient of determination, the empirical distributions of two commonly used statistics are also investigated through Monte Carlo experiments for small, moderately large and large samples. FHL's work is also extended allowing the possibility of residual autocorrelation corrections. The main conclusion that emerges from the results is that one should not try to measure the importance of deterministic seasonality nor test for its presence in the context of such (static) regression models, even when using some form of residual autocorrelation correction. A simple empirical application is provided to illustrate our results. First version received: July 1997/final version received: July 1998     

Publishing? You can count on knowledge,experience, and expectations

Quality & Quantity - The study based on an online survey covering 655 researchers from hard and soft sciences addresses the influence of different conditions on academic publishing. Results...     

Disclosure and cost of equity capital in emerging markets: The Brazilian case

In this paper, we conjecture that the weak association between disclosure and cost of equity capital found in the literature (Botosan, 1997) can be caused by the high-level corporate disclosure environment found in the United States. We hypothesize that in low-level corporate disclosure environments the variability in disclosure practices across firms will be larger than in the United States, and, consequently, the marginal effect of voluntary disclosure policies will be higher. Using a newly developed Brazilian Corporate Disclosure Index (BCDI), our results confirm this hypothesis. Disclosure is strongly associated with ex ante cost of equity capital for Brazilian firms. The results are more pronounced for firms with less analyst coverage and low ownership concentration, as expected.     

Leader＇s Human Capital as an Alternative for Relational Leadership

The current research attempts to revitalize contingency leadership theory. Instead of focusing on subordinate attributes as a substitute for leadership theory, this study examines leader＇s human capital attributes as a leadership contingency variable. This paper offers a fresh perspective to contingency leadership literature by exploring a new set of variables. Addressing leader-member exchange （LMX） rather than the conventional focus on leader＇s behaviors, this study examines previously untested contingency variables. Using a matched sample of leaders and employees from Portuguese firms, this study examines leader＇s education and leader＇s organizational tenure as alternatives for LMX with assessed job performance and organizational citizenship as dependent variables. Testing new independent variables sheds additional light on contingency approaches to leadership; as a result, this paper improves the current state of research on contingency leadership. Results seem to indicate that leader＇s education is an alternative for LMX as well as suggesting that the leader＇s organizational tenure improves LMX. This paper proposes that research focusing on the substitute for leadership may need to examine a different set of variables to determine the viability of contingency approaches to leadership.     

The Role of Financial,Macroeconomic, and Non-financial Information in Bank Loan Default Timing Prediction

We assess the use of bank loan information in predicting the timing to default. We use unique data on defaults in small and medium enterprises maintained by the Central Bank of Portugal which includes financial accounting and macroeconomic indicators, as well as non-financial information. The findings are indicative of the incremental predictive ability of non-financial information over and above macroeconomic and financial accounting information in the baseline, industry, and in- and out-of-sample models. Specifically, total credit secured by firms is, as expected, negatively and significantly related to default. Gross domestic product is negatively and significantly related to default, and benchmark market rate is positively and significantly associated with default. The findings also reveal that firms which are operated by partners, which have stronger financial support from partners, and which possess operational assets exhibit lower hazards of default. The study indicates that non-financial information and macroeconomic indicators assessed alongside financial accounting data can significantly improve the forecasting performance of default models.     

Capitalist development and agrarian structure in Brazil

Les tendences divergeantes de la structure agraire dans diverses parties du Brésil sont le thème de cet article. Le développement capitaliste dans les régions rurales de São Paolo, et la préservation/destruction des formes archaïques de production dans le nord-est sont analysés en terme des catégories et stages de développement capitaliste qui évoluent au pays. En considérant ce dernier dans son ensemble, une attention particulière est donnée à l'état. Depuis le début de l'industrialisation, l'industrie et l'agriculture ont toujours eu une relation ambiguë et contradictoire, et ceçi à la fois dans l'exportation et dans les marchés internes. Ceçi explique le caractère composite de l'état et la préservation d'une agriculture primitive. La préservation de la grande entreprise agro-merchantile et des formes archaïques de l'agriculture avait des fonctions distinctes pour l'accumulation du capital dans les secteurs non-agraires. Cet article examine aussi les tendances les plus récentes dans l'organisation agraire en relation avec les caractéristiques spécifiques de la nouvelle étape acquise par le capitalisme au Brésil. Une fois de plus, Côte à côte avec l'accroissement de la c?apitalisme agraire, dans la région de São Paolo (suivit par l'émergence d'un proletariat rural plus pur, la méchanisation massive et l'augmentation rapide de la composition organique du capital agraire), se produit l'extension et la récréation continuelle de la paysannerie latifundia dans les régions éloignées du pays. Un tel développement inégal dans les régions rurales coexiste avec le développement capitaliste dans son ensemble.     

Maturity and volatility effects on UK smiles

The smile effect is a result of an empirical observation of the options implied volatility with the same expiration date, across different exercise prices. However, its shape has been under discussion seeming to be dependent on the option underlying security. In this paper, and filling up a scarce empirical research on the topic, we used liquid equity options on 9 stocks traded on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE) between August 1990 and December 1991. We tested two different hypothesis for testing two different phenomena: (1) the increase of the smile as maturity approaches; (2) and the association between the smile and the volatility of the underlying stock. In order to estimate implied volatilities for unavailable exercise prices, we modelled the smile using cubic B-spline curves. We found empirical support for the smile intensification (the U-shape is more pronounced) as maturity approaches as well as when volatility rises. However, we found two major sources of disagreement with the literature on stochastic volatility models. First, as maturity approaches, out-of-the-money options implied volatility tends to be higher than the implied volatility of in-the-money options. Second, as the volatility of the underlying asset increases, the implied volatility of in-the-money options tends to be higher than implied volatility of out-of-the-money options.Received: September 2001, Accepted: September 2003, JEL Classification: G13Correspondence to: João L. C. DuqueWe thank Professor Dean A. Paxson (University of Manchester), António Sousa Câmara (University of Strathclyde), Ser-Huang Poon (University of Lancaster) and the attendees of the 26th EFA Annual Conference for helpful comments on previous versions of this paper. We also want to thank to two anonymous referees for their relevant comments and suggestions. Financial support granted by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) and the Programa Praxis XXI is gratefully acknowledged.     

Trademarks and British dominance in consumer goods, 1876–1914

Late Victorian Britain was very important in the development of British dominance in light consumer goods industries, such as fermented liquors and spirits; detergents and perfumery; bicycles and other carriages; paper, stationery, and bookbinding; and games of all kinds and sports goods. Firms developed technology‐based innovations and marketing‐based innovations, creating abnormal peaks of trademark registrations in certain industries. This article investigates those peaks and shows that factors usually pointed out as explaining British economic decline in heavy industries did not impact on the development of light consumer goods industries, and on the contrary encouraged their fast growth during this period. Trademark registrations are shown to provide new insights into the debate on British relative decline, when combined with other industry and firm‐level data.     

Insights into carsharing demand dynamics: Outputs of an agent-based model application to Lisbon,Portugal

Two important claims for carsharing systems are their increased flexibility and potential contribution to reducing transport externalities such as pollution. Carsharing typically involves a fleet of vehicles in stations around a city that clients may use on an hourly-payment basis. Classical round-trip systems address a niche market of shopping and errand trips. However, a growing market is now arising providing one-way trips to clients. Great uncertainty remains on the economic viability of this type of carsharing given the complex relation between supply and demand, and how this may influence the level of service provided. Realistic modeling tools that include both supply and demand characterization and allow testing several carsharing operational parameters are scarce. In this sense, a detailed agent-based model was developed to simulate one-way carsharing systems. The simulation incorporates a stochastic demand model discretized in time and space and a detailed environment characterization with realistic travel times. The operation includes maintenance operations, relocations and reservations. The model was applied to the case-study city of Lisbon. Our results show that comparing to other modes, carsharing performs worse than private cars both in terms of time and cost. Nevertheless, it clearly outperforms taxis in terms of cost, and outperforms buses, metro and walking in terms of travel time. The competitiveness of carsharing is highly determined by trip length, becoming more competitive than other modes (travel-time wise) as trips become longer. The operational policies as car-fleet relocation and car reservation showed significant effects in enhancing profit while preserving good customers' satisfaction.