Earnings Conservatism and Value Relevance Across the Business Cycle

Abstract:  Prior research has demonstrated higher value relevance of current earnings during economic expansions relative to contractions. We largely attribute such a result to expected growth prospects being captured in the current earnings coefficient when a direct proxy for expected future earnings is omitted from the returns-earnings model. We demonstrate that the conservatism and value relevance of current earnings is actually higher during economic contractions when including a proxy for future earnings expectations. We further demonstrate that the value-relevance of expected future earnings is higher during expansions, when the association between historical accounting information and future growth opportunities likely weakens.     

A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model

A ‘long memory’ property of stock market returns is investigated in this paper. It is found that not only there is substantially more correlation between absolute returns than returns themselves, but the power transformation of the absolute return ¦r_t¦^d also has quite high autocorrelation for long lags. It is possible to characterize ¦r_t¦^d to be ‘long memory’ and this property is strongest when d is around 1. This result appears to argue against ARCH type specifications based upon squared returns. But our Monte-Carlo study shows that both ARCH type models based on squared returns and those based on absolute return can produce this property. A new general class of models is proposed which allows the power δ of the heteroskedasticity equation to be estimated from the data.     

The relevance of christian fictive domestic economy

The theologian, Bruce Malina, argued in this journal (1997) that the Bible is not relevant to economics in the contemporary world. This paper contends the contrary. A body of economists and social theologians hold that a set of consistent socio-economic principles and ethics underlying the long history of the Biblical texts can be applied to the modern world, and are so intended to apply. An assumption of this group is that the Bible depicts the word of God interpreted and ultimately written down by people in their day and age. It is the socio-economic warrants in principle contained in this material that are relevant today. The argument here has two aspects. One questions Malina, concluding that he does not sustain his conclusions. The second aspect is to illustrate something of the methodology and conclusions of the economist/social theologian group that asserts the relevance of Biblical principle to contemporary society.     

Optimal compensation for potential fatality

Cordes and Weisbrod have recently demonstrated that the requirement that the government actually compensate individuals adversely affected by public projects is likely to have serious resource allocation implications. We examine a rudimentary model of government discretionary behaviour subject to a compensation requirement in the presence of physical risks. Risk assessments are endogenous and asymmetrically held — features enabling analysis of the trade- offs between compensation and protection or information available to the government, and of the structure of compensation which motivates it to do what is objectively best for the individual. We show that, paradoxically, greater government discretion seems more likely to ensure the latter.     

The Transitory Nature of Negative Earnings and the Implications for Earnings Prediction and Stock Valuation

The value-irrelevance of losses largely results from the transitory nature of losses and the diminished relationship between current and future earnings. This study develops a sales-based model of future normal earnings that is useful in analyzing future earnings prospects of loss firms. Results indicate that the developed model is associated with future earnings realizations and current stock price and is shown to be incrementally value-relevant (with book value) in price regressions for loss firms. Investigation of the relative valuation role of the prediction model provides evidence that the model is associated with equity value for loss firms expected to survive.     

Income Shifting and International Transfer Pricing: A Three-Country Example

There is a long held belief that international transfer pricing (ITP) is used by multinational enterprises (MNEs) to minimize global tax liability. On the one hand, this is a rational economic response to market imperfections created by national governments. An alternative view decries such actions as anti-competitive and an abuse of power. This article ex-amines the potential benefit to enterprises of ITP manipulation when a real world combination of fiscal rules are simultaneously applied in practice. The countervailing impact of different national rules appears to result in ITP having a minor significance on parent after-tax income. Differential rates cause minor benefits but the absence of a form of tax, such as withholding tax, can provide substantial opportunities to maximize global after-tax income through the choice of transfer price. ITP can therefore provide benefits when national jurisdictions do not have consistent forms of taxation. In all the scenarios explored, major variations are apparent in the after-tax income of subsidiaries operating under different combinations of fiscal regimes and ITP policies. The tension between head-quarter and subsidiary management may be most pronounced when a subsidiary is located in a jurisdiction not having a complete range of tax forms.