REFORMING PROPERTY RIGHTS IN LAND AND TENANCY

This article examines the nature and distribution of propertyrights in land and how they are changing under economic anddemographic pressures. It also analyzes the practical chancesof success of several alternative forms of policy interventionto redistribute property rights and regulate tenancy. This analysisbegins with the political economy of land reform in the twentiethcentury. It draws a distinction between reforms precipitatedby social upheaval (defeat in war, social revolution, or nationalliberation) and those that occur in "normal" times, when thesocial and political order is more secure. It is argued thatthe former have been much more important and, drawing on examples,that the latter face formidable obstacles. In this connection,it is proposed that a tax reform which does away with the highlyselective subsidies and exemptions that benefit the rich andinflate the price of land should be undertaken first. Then,when land prices have fallen, compulsory purchase of land forredistribution, at close to fair market value to ensure itspolitical acceptability, would not entail an intolerable fiscalburden. Where tenancy is concerned, it is argued that this institutionis commonly a socially useful market response, which providesopportunities for the fuller employment of family resourcesand, over the long run, for individual mobility. Thus interventionsdesigned to inhibit tenancy directly or to transfer ownership-likerights to existing tenants may result in heavy costs, especiallyfor future cohorts of would-be tenants.      

A Different Perspective on the Evolution of UK Income Inequality

This paper scrutinizes the conventional wisdom about trends in UK income inequality and also places contemporary inequality in a much longer historical perspective. We combine household survey and income tax data to provide better coverage of all income ranges from the bottom to the very top (and make our estimates available to other researchers). We make a case for studying distributions of income between tax units (i.e. not assuming the full income sharing that goes with the use of the household as the unit of analysis) for reasons of principle as well as data harmonization. We present evidence that income inequality in the UK is as least as high today as it was just before the start of World War 2.     

Balance sheet conservatism and audit reporting conservatism

Financial reports are prepared on a going‐concern (GC) basis rather than a liquidation basis even when companies are highly distressed. This allows distressed companies to report book values of assets that greatly exceed their liquidation values, implying a lack of conservatism in the balance sheet. We argue that auditors issue going‐concern opinions in order to warn investors about this lack of balance sheet conservatism. This argument leads to two testable hypotheses. First, for companies that are at risk of bankruptcy, auditors are more likely to issue GC opinions when the book values of assets under the GC assumption are high relative to the expected liquidation values of assets (i.e., when the GC assumption causes the balance sheet to lack conservatism). Second, for companies that enter bankruptcy, the issuance of a prior GC opinion has predictive information content with respect to the wedge between the book values of assets and the future liquidation values of those same assets. Our results strongly support both hypotheses. The findings are important because they indicate that conservative audit reporting helps to compensate for a lack of conservatism in the balance sheet, which arises because the GC assumption permits the book values of assets to exceed their liquidation values.     

Morgan Stanley's Risk‐Reward Views: Unlocking the Full Potential of Fundamental Analysis

Since 2008, Risk‐Reward Views have been the basis for the recommendations on all the stocks covered by Morgan Stanley's equity research analysts globally. The firm's analysts use this systematic approach to communicate a broader range of fundamental insights about expected returns and risks, and to articulate more clearly the logic underlying their price targets and calls, and the level of conviction associated with them. The rationale for this approach is to align the firm's research product with its clients' thinking and investment discipline while also creating a link between traditional equity analysis and widely accepted principles of modern portfolio management. Too many sell‐side analysts still try to manifest expertise and conviction with one‐sided investment theses backed by single‐point estimates and “table pounding.” That does a disservice to investors who are looking to sell‐side analysts for an ongoing dialogue about the future with experts on company fundamentals. Risk‐Reward Views are designed to produce a more complete view of the risk‐reward trade‐off in a given stock. They are meant to supplement the use of quant‐only risk models that, while offering at least the illusion of precision, are also often opaque and backward looking. The approach aims to increase transparency while avoiding unnecessary complexity by focusing on a handful of critical uncertainties and modeling a manageable number of coherent scenarios that are relevant to investor debates and cover a full range of plausible outcomes. This article focuses on the theoretical underpinnings of the department's Risk‐Reward initiative. For a more detailed discussion of the institutional setting and the processes followed to implement these ideas, readers are referred to the recently published Harvard Business School case study, “The Risk‐Reward Framework at Morgan Stanley Research” (Harvard Business School Case N9–111–011).     

Rising top-income persistence in Australia: Evidence from income tax data

Using income tax administrative data for Australia, we examine levels and trends in the persistence in top-income group membership, focusing on the top 1 percent. Top-income persistence increased markedly between 1991 and 2018, with most of the increase occurring in the mid-2000s and early 2010s. In the mid- to late-2010s, Australian top-income persistence rates were near the top of the range of tax-data estimates for other countries. We decompose the increase into factors associated with (i) changes in the composition of the top-income group and (ii) increases in persistence rates for specific population subgroups. We find that the rise in top-income persistence is accounted for by changes in subgroup persistence rates, notably for individuals aged 35–64, and especially those aged 55–64. We suggest that these effects are partially related to increases in the effective retirement age over the relevant period.     

‘Real without being concrete’: the ontology of public concern and its significance for the Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF)

Abstract

Public concern is a pivotal notion in the risk perception, communication and management literature. It is, for example, a central concept with regard to the social amplification of risk, and as a justification for policy attention. Despite its ubiquity, the notion of public concern remains a ‘black box’ presenting a poorly understood state of affairs as a reified matter-of-fact. Paying attention to the deployment and metrics of public concern, and the work it is required to do, will enhance the power of approaches to understanding risk, and policymaking. Thus, the broad purpose of this paper is to unpack the notion of public concern by adopting an ontological yet critical perspective, drawing on a range of literature that considers ontology. We reflect on how publics and public concern have been conceptualised with regard to the dichotomies of individual/social and private/public, given that they imply different levels and dimensions of concern. We draw on empirical work that illuminates the assessment and measurement of public concern and how the public have responded to risk events. Considering public concern through an ontological lens affords a means of drawing renewed critical attention to objects that might otherwise appear finished or ready-made.     

The European Union and Kaliningrad: Taking the Low Road

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Global critical leadership: Educating global leaders with critical leadership competencies

Global critical leadership competency means espousing critical thinking skills in all aspects of leadership decision making in the global context. This paper reviews the actions of critical thinking, argues that global leaders too must lead critically, and draws attention to the deficiency of critical thinking curricula in higher education and subsequent lack of recent graduates with critical thinking competencies. Leading critically is defined as applying critical thinking skills to decisions about leadership actions in different situations and is a challenge for leaders, followers, and educators. Nevertheless, global leaders, stakeholders, and educators in global leadership programs must embrace this challenge in order to make informed decisions in global contexts.     

Do acquirers disclose good news or withhold bad news when they finance their acquisitions using equity?

Companies that use their own stock to finance acquisitions have incentives to increase their market values prior to the acquisition. This study examines whether such companies mislead investors by issuing overly optimistic forecasts of future earnings (“deception by commission”) or by withholding bad news about future earnings (“deception by omission”). We compare the management forecasts of acquiring firms in a pre-acquisition period (days −90 to −30 before the acquisition announcement) and a post-acquisition period (days +30 to +90 after the acquisition is completed). We show that, when acquisitions are financed using stock, companies are not more likely to issue overly optimistic earnings forecasts during the pre-acquisition period compared with the post-acquisition period. However, these same acquirers are more likely to withhold impending bad news about future earnings. Consistent with litigation having an asymmetric effect on disclosure incentives, our findings suggest that deception by omission occurs more often than deception by commission.     

Nominal inertia and shock persistence in UK business cycles

A structural VAR methodology is used for UK data to identify and map out the effects of innovations in the money supply, employment, output, wages and prices. Moreover, bands of two standard errors are computed for the impulse response functions so that comment may be made on the significance of the dynamic responses of the variables to the simulated shocks. This allows conclusions to be drawn on the persistence of shocks. Results suggest that output variation is largely determined by aggregate demand shocks over the business cycle frequency. Importantly, evidence is also found of rigidities in the form of price inertia and nominal wage stickiness.