Updating the Determinants of Firm Performance: Estimation using the 1998 UK Workplace Employee Relations Survey

We examine the determinants of establishment performance in the UK, using cross‐sectional data from the 1998 Workplace Employee Relations Survey to replicate research by Fernie and Metcalf (1995) who used data from the 1990 Workplace Employee Relations Survey; specifically, we test whether employee representation, contingent pay and efforts to boost employee participation affect a set of economic and industrial relations outcome indicators in the manner they suggest. We also re‐estimate the influential WERS90‐based study of Machin and Stewart (1996) on the links between union status and financial performance. In both cases we report very different results.     

Some thoughts on the development of cointegration

This paper describes how the notion of cointegration came about, and discusses some generalizations to indicate where the topic may go next. In particular, some issues in the analysis of possibly cointegrated quantile time series are discussed.     

In Search of the Fourth Way: A Commentary on the Books by Fred Argy and Mark Latham

This paper is a critique of the new books by Mark Latham and Fred Argy, the first of which in particular is said to herald the 'Third Way' in Australian politics. It considers the implications for new policies of economic power and the redefinition of economic welfare, and concludes that if this is the Third Way then we are in need of a Fourth Way.     

When Is Efficiency Separable from Distribution in the Provision of Club Goods?

Using the homogeneous of degree zero inverse congestion (“quality”) function employed most frequently in the literature, we characterise completely the families of utility functions which are then necessary and sufficient for break-even utilitarian welfare maximising provision of club goods with self-selection to be separable from distribution. Two types of separation—involving, alternatively (a) the price and quality; (b) the price, quality, facility size and total utilisation—are considered. When separation is possible, utility functions and optimal decisions take simple, intuitive forms. Our results extend the scope of separation results previously obtained only for pure public goods. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D62, H23, H40.     

A collective,undifferentiated accounting profession: an Australian study

A study of 386 potential and current members of the accounting profession in Australia and South‐East Asia provides evidence of the importance of three attributes – brand/reputation, international recognition of qualifications and career opportunities – in the decision to join a professional accounting body. While these attributes are important, logit regression models indicate that they are not discriminatory in the choice of professional body and suggest a perception of a collective, undifferentiated accounting profession. The marketing of brand/reputation and membership benefits may be a more efficient and effective strategy in attracting members and differentiating the profession if undertaken by a combined or coordinated professional body.     

Can we improve the perceived quality of economic forecasts?

A number of topics are discussed concerning how economic forecasts can be improved in quality or at least in presentation. These include the following: using 50% uncertainty intervals rather than 95%; noting that even though forecasters use many different techniques, they are all occasionally incorrect in the same direction; that there is a tendency to underestimate changes; that some expectations and recently available data are used insufficiently; lagged forecasts errors can help compensate for structural breaks; series that are more forecastable could be emphasized and that present methods of evaluating forecasts do not capture the useful properties of some methods compared to alternatives.     

Polarities between Naturalism and Non-Naturalism in Contemporary Economics: An Overview

We provide a dynamic model of banking competition, in which bounded rationality of some competitors explains how the credit cycle is intensified. We model the economic cycle following Tobias F. Rötheli (2012b), who argues that boundedly rational banks, in their Bayesian learning, overestimate the probability of success during booms and underestimate it during recessions. We obtain three main results. First, the model suggests that pessimism/underconfidence is not a powerful driver of credit cycles. Instead, it supports the conclusion that it is euphoria during large upswings that leads to the next crunch. Second, the dynamization of the model provides further insight into the way boundedly rational competition intensifies the credit cycle. Third, it additionally predicts that the effects of behavioral biases are more pervasive when the quality of the niche markets is lower.     

Risk and Capital Structure in the Regulated Firm

This paper studies the role of capital structure in a regulated firm. We show that it affects the prices set by the regulator, the expected price being lower the higher the proportion of debt finance. However, when debt is increased beyond a certain level, the benefit of lower expected prices is offset by their increased variability. We also study the socially preferred capital structure. This is such that consumers carry some risk, in the form of higher prices in adverse economic conditions.     

The need for a strategic approach on the railways to the management of the vehicle–track interface

Network Rail's decision in 2003 to bring track maintenance back in-house was long-overdue recognition that responsibility for safety on Britain's railways cannot be abdicated – but there was more to it than that. The accidents at Hatfield and Potter's Bar (both in Hertfordshire, UK), in particular, had exposed very vividly how privatisation had encouraged each now separated and competing part of the industry to operate in its own interests: records, data and expertise were fragmented, and track and train operators alike each sought to minimise their individual costs in isolation. This paper argues from a systems analysis perspective that, on vehicle and track maintenance at least, the overall costs to the industry are in such circumstances likely to be higher than if the various parties were to work together towards minimising total track and train maintenance costs between them. Far from increasing efficiency, privatisation had the effect of reducing it.