Time series analysis of residuals from the St. Louis model

The residuals of the equations of the St. Louis model are analyzed individually and in pairs, using time series techniques in an attempt to discover mis-specifications in the model, in the form of incorrect lags or missing variables. The relationships discovered are,checked both inside and outside the sample. A variety of mis-specifications are apparent, and a much improved specification should be possible. The assumption made in the model that money supply is exogenous does not agree with the data.     

Spurious regressions with stationary series

A spurious regression occurs when a pair of independent series, but with strong temporal properties, are found apparently to be related according to standard inference in an OLS regression. Although this is well known to occur with pairs of independent unit root processes, this paper finds evidence that similar results are found with positively autocorrelated autoregressive series or long moving averages. This occurs regardless of the sample size and for various distributions of the error terms.     

The reporting of industrial relations on breakfast-time television

Breakfast-time television offers a different approach from more established television output; but how significant are the differences? This article analyses the scope and presentation of industrial relations issues on breakfast-time television and evaluates the qualitative implications they are given.     

Ethics in the Petrochemical Industry

The public attitude towards the petrochemical industry tends to be one of ethical disapproval and suspicion. But how justified is it? A knowledgeable look at how the industry in general, and one major company in particular, addresses its ethical responsibilities provides a quite different picture. The author has long experience of the petrochemical industry and was most recently Public Affairs Director of ARCO Chemical Europe Inc. He now runs his own Corporate Affairs Consultancy at 82 St George’s Square, London SW1V 3QX.     

Some Ethical Dilemmas in the Handling of Police Informers

Decision-making by police officers often involves complex problems and this is particularly so in the recruitment and management of informers—and area of policing generally shrouded in mystery and secrecy. Drawing on research conducted in two police force areas, this article identifies and discusses some of the concerns of officers involved in this activity and concludes they are ill-prepared to deal with the ethical dilemmas they are confronted with.     

Income Shifting and International Transfer Pricing: A Three-Country Example

There is a long held belief that international transfer pricing (ITP) is used by multinational enterprises (MNEs) to minimize global tax liability. On the one hand, this is a rational economic response to market imperfections created by national governments. An alternative view decries such actions as anti-competitive and an abuse of power. This article ex-amines the potential benefit to enterprises of ITP manipulation when a real world combination of fiscal rules are simultaneously applied in practice. The countervailing impact of different national rules appears to result in ITP having a minor significance on parent after-tax income. Differential rates cause minor benefits but the absence of a form of tax, such as withholding tax, can provide substantial opportunities to maximize global after-tax income through the choice of transfer price. ITP can therefore provide benefits when national jurisdictions do not have consistent forms of taxation. In all the scenarios explored, major variations are apparent in the after-tax income of subsidiaries operating under different combinations of fiscal regimes and ITP policies. The tension between head-quarter and subsidiary management may be most pronounced when a subsidiary is located in a jurisdiction not having a complete range of tax forms.     

Attitudinal Barriers to Women's Career Progression in Accounting in Australia

The literature on women's career progression in the professions has suggested a number of categories of factors that may explain the observed gender differences. This study uses data from a survey of Australian accountants to show the extent of differences between male and female accountants in their attitudes towards their careers. There are some differences between the genders in their ideas about requirements for promotion (although these are generally small) and in aspects of job satisfaction. Males aged more than 30 have higher levels of ambition and place more emphasis on career planning than do females over 30.     

A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model

A ‘long memory’ property of stock market returns is investigated in this paper. It is found that not only there is substantially more correlation between absolute returns than returns themselves, but the power transformation of the absolute return ¦r_t¦^d also has quite high autocorrelation for long lags. It is possible to characterize ¦r_t¦^d to be ‘long memory’ and this property is strongest when d is around 1. This result appears to argue against ARCH type specifications based upon squared returns. But our Monte-Carlo study shows that both ARCH type models based on squared returns and those based on absolute return can produce this property. A new general class of models is proposed which allows the power δ of the heteroskedasticity equation to be estimated from the data.