Output-inflation tradeoffs in 34 countries

This article examines the responsiveness of real output to the variability of inflation and aggregate demand. In the manner of Lucas (1973), estimates of the output-inflation tradeoff are computed for a large sample of countries. This measure is then correlated with the variances of the inflation rate and the growth rate in nominal income. Because differences in inflation variance (and hence the tradeoff) are viewed as the outcomes of differences in demand variance, correlations between these two variables are also reported. Cross-time and cross-country results provide a good measure of support for Lucas and the notion that attempts to exploit the tradeoff weaken it.     

Are the Best Small Companies the Best Investments?

Previous research finds that large companies previously judged to be excellent growth companies have subsequently been poor investments. We examine small companies selected by Business Week on the basis of multiple criteria used in annual articles featuring highly rated growth companies. We study the investment performance over the three years before eleven annual Business Week publications and the three years after publication. We find positive excess returns in the pre‐publication period, but negative excess returns in the post‐publication period. This reversal in investment performance appears to be due to a mean‐reversion tendency in operating performance, in which the earnings and the past rates of return on capital of such companies subsequently decrease significantly.     

Learning and the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank

This paper examines the welfare implications of alternative inflation targeting proposals for the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. We assume that policy makers have to “learn” the laws of motion of inflation in an economy characterized by “stickiness” in domestic price setting behavior and subjected to recurring shocks to productivity, exports and foreign price. We find that a switch from an “asymmetric” inflation targeting strategy to an “symmetric” makes little difference in welfare payoffs, but it comes at a cost of much higher interest-rate variability. We also find that there are practically no welfare gains from switching from an inflation-targeting strategy based on the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) to a strategy based on the domestic price component of the HICP.     

Separability in farm-household economics: an experiment with linear programming

The assumption of separability between farm-household production and consumption facilitates analysis, but entails several important restrictions. The implications of assuming separability are discussed here in relation to the modelling of a representative Tongan farm-household. Econometric estimation of household demand is coupled with a linear programming (LP) model of farm-household production. When analysing consumer demand, separable farm-household economics is undoubtedly preferable to ignoring the production/consumption linkages entirely. However, the restrictions which must be imposed on the production side of the separable model are such that a realistic LP solution is unlikely to be obtained. This is likely to be a major deterrent to adopting the separable approach for studies in which the main focus is on production rather than consumption.     

Research notes and communications strategic planning as competitive advantage

Since 1970, over forty empirical studies have examined the performance consequences of formal strategic planning. This line of research has drawn heavy criticism from reviewers on methodological grounds, and has produced confusing, apparently contradictory results. This article reevaluates the planning-performance relationship from a resource perspective, arguing that strategic planning does not satisfy the criteria for sustainable competitive advantage– although it may produce economic value, it is easily imitated and may be substitutable. The article suggests that previous studies produced inconsistent results because they did not account for the dissemination of strategic planning over time, or for industry differences in strategic planning factor markets. An empirical test in two industries finds that formal strategic planning and financial performance are unrelated in a ‘planning equilibrium’ industry, but positively related in an industry with strategic planning factor market imperfections.