DURATION MOMENTS AND YIELD CURVE MOVEMENTS

In this paper we will analyze the relationship between the value and duration moments of a cash flow and movements in the yield curve. We will show that for changes in the yield curve which can be related to tⁿ , the 1st order changes in the net present value of a cash flow are linearly dependent on the n + lth duration moments, and that the 2nd order changes are dependent on the sum of duration moments of order 2 n + 1 and 2 n + 2. We will use this relationship to tilt tracking portfolios so as to protect them against specific changes in the yield curve.     

Futures assessment by field anomaly relaxation : A review and appraisal

Futures research includes the problem of generating reasonably exhaustive and plausible scenarios for a given topic, a problem for which there are no truly satisfactory solutions. This article reviews and evaluates a method, field anomaly relaxation, first put forward some 20 years ago. The evaluation is in the context of an illustrative study of political developments in Europe. The research reconstructs and further develops the method and concludes that it has something to offer for scenario generation. Its weaknesses are identified and suggestions for further research are made.     

State-owned enterprises going public The case of China

Public listing is a key reform measure for large state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) in China. We find evidence that public listing lowers state ownership significantly, lessens firms’ reliance on debt finance, and allows firms to increase capital expenditure, at least temporarily. We also find that ownership structure affects post‐listing performance. However, we find no statistical evidence of a positive effect of public listing on firms’ profitability. We suggest alternative interpretations of the last finding.     

Neuroeconomics: Why Economics Needs Brains

Neuroeconomics uses knowledge about brain mechanisms to inform economic theory. It opens up the “black box” of the brain, much as organizational economics opened up the theory of the firm. Neuroscientists use many tools—including brain imaging, behavior of patients with brain damage, animal behavior and recording single neuron activity. The key insight for economics is that the brain is composed of multiple systems which interact. Controlled systems (“executive function”) interrupt automatic ones. Brain evidence complicates standard assumptions about basic preference, to include homeostasis and other kinds of state‐dependence, and shows emotional activation in ambiguous choice and strategic interaction.     

The New Urbanism Versus the Market Process

The new urbanism argues that land-use planning should be used to create higher-density development and to promote alternatives to the use of personal automobiles for transportation. The concerns of the new urbanist movement are shown to be misplaced, and the goals of the new urbanism are shown to be in conflict with market incentives, making them difficult to implement in any event. A better policy for more efficient land use would be for governments to plan more effectively for their own infrastructure development while allowing the development of privately-owned land to be guided by market forces.     

The Incidence and Intensity of Employer Funded Training: Australian Evidence on the Impact of Flexible Work

The interaction between the growth of flexible forms of employment and employer funded training is important for understanding labour market performance. In particular, the idea of a trade‐off has been advanced to describe potential market failures in the employment of flexible workers. This study finds that evidence of a trade‐off is apparent in both the incidence and intensity of employer funded training. Flexible workers receive training that is 50–80% less intense than the workforce average. Casual workers – especially males – suffer more acutely from the trade‐off. This suggests that flexible production externalities may seriously reduce human capital formation in the workforce.     

Debtor-in-possession financing

Several recent papers have documented the benefits of debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing in the restructuring of firms in Chapter 11. However, the view on benefits is not unanimous and some legal scholars have raised doubts about DIP financing's effects on debt-holders and the possibility of expropriative wealth transfers. In this paper we address this issue by analyzing both stock and bond price data for a comprehensive sample of DIP loans and find significant positive abnormal stock and bond returns at the announcement of DIP loans. Also, we do not find evidence of wealth transfers from junior to senior debt-holders. Further, we examine the DIP loan process in detail and we document important institutional features of DIP loans such as maturity, covenants, fees and interest charges. We find evidence of intense monitoring using covenants. We also find higher fees and charges associated with DIP loans. We argue that overall the results are consistent with the information processing role of financial intermediaries.     

Stochastic frontier models with random coefficients

The paper proposes a stochastic frontier model with random coefficients to separate technical inefficiency from technological differences across firms, and free the frontier model from the restrictive assumption that all firms must share exactly the same technological possibilities. Inference procedures for the new model are developed based on Bayesian techniques, and computations are performed using Gibbs sampling with data augmentation to allow finite‐sample inference for underlying parameters and latent efficiencies. An empirical example illustrates the procedure. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Socio‐economic distance and spatial patterns in unemployment

This paper examines the spatial patterns of unemployment in Chicago between 1980 and 1990. We study unemployment clustering with respect to different social and economic distance metrics that reflect the structure of agents' social networks. Specifically, we use physical distance, travel time, and differences in ethnic and occupational distribution between locations. Our goal is to determine whether our estimates of spatial dependence are consistent with models in which agents' employment status is affected by information exchanged locally within their social networks. We present non‐parametric estimates of correlation across Census tracts as a function of each distance metric as well as pairs of metrics, both for unemployment rate itself and after conditioning on a set of tract characteristics. Our results indicate that there is a strong positive and statistically significant degree of spatial dependence in the distribution of raw unemployment rates, for all our metrics. However, once we condition on a set of covariates, most of the spatial autocorrelation is eliminated, with the exception of physical and occupational distance. Racial and ethnic composition variables are the single most important factor in explaining the observed correlation patterns. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.