Labor Income and Predictable Stock Returns

We propose a novel economic mechanism that generates stock returnpredictability in both the time series and the cross-section.Investors’ income has two sources, wages and dividendsthat grow stochastically over time. As a consequence the fractionof total income produced by wages fluctuates depending on economicconditions. We show that the risk premium that investors requireto hold stocks varies with these fluctuations. A regressionof stock returns on lagged values of the labor income to consumptionratio produces statistically significant coefficients and largeadjusted R²s. Tests of the model’s cross-sectional predictionson the set of 25 Fama–French portfolios sorted on sizeand book-to-market are also met with considerable support.     

Conditional risk-neutral density from option prices by local polynomial kernel smoothing with no-arbitrage constraints

Review of Derivatives Research - A new approach is considered to estimate risk-neutral densities (RND) within a kernel regression framework, through local cubic polynomial estimation using intraday...     

The effectiveness of advertising alcohol products in sports sponsorship

Studies have shown that exposure to sponsorship can influence behavior. However, evidence of the effectiveness of sports advertising and its influence on alcohol consumption is inconclusive. The goal of this research is to examine whether sponsorship by alcohol products receives the same attention as sponsorship by nonalcohol products depending on their congruence and the way they influence the intention to consume. Using sports posters, an experiment was performed to measure attention through eye-tracking. The results show that attention paid to alcohol brands is no greater than the attention paid to incongruent brands and is no different from the attention paid to congruent brands, regardless of gender and sporting discipline. Attention paid to sponsors has no influence on the intention to consume. These results show the need for further research on the effectiveness of sponsorship and its relationship with alcohol consumption.     

Online word-of-mouth and market structure

Portuguese Economic Journal - Hotels adjust their product offerings depending on demand and competition faced. In this article I document the increase in average hotel quality as measured by online...     

BIBLIOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE QUANTITATIVE METHODS APPLIED TO THE MEASUREMENT OF INDUSTRIAL CLUSTERS

Literature on methods for analysing interindustry interdependence and geographical concentration of firms began to multiply since the 1990s. The aim of this paper was to systematize the literature on methods and measures applied to the analysis of industrial clusters, as well as to identify trends in this knowledge field. The method used was bibliometrics, which consisted of a frequency evaluation of the publications and the relationship network between them. It was verified an exponential increase in the number of papers that composed this area, based mainly on the theories of New Economic Geography. Recently, the literature has focused on the geographic location in relation to interindustry linkages, and the frontier of knowledge has shifted from traditional methods of regional science to areas such as spatial statistics, econophysics and artificial intelligence. There are still relevant questions being explored, as Modifiable Area Unit Problem (aggregation bias), nevertheless, spatial anisotropy (directional bias) is still neglected and indicates a new research path.     

Nudging using the ‘dish of the day’ strategy does not work for plant‐based meals in a Danish sample of adolescent and older people

Adequate nutrition is an important factor for health and well‐being in adolescents and later years. Fruits and vegetables are part of a healthy diet as important source of nutrients, but their intakes are lower than the recommendations in European countries. This study aimed to compare the choices made by adolescents and older people between three similar dishes, one based on meat, one on fish and one on vegetables, in two different conditions: a neutral (control) situation and an intervention situation in which the vegetable‐based meal was designated ‘dish of the day’. The comparisons of choices will be made within the same age group (adolescents in the control group vs. adolescents in the intervention group; older people in the control group vs. older people in the intervention group). A quasi‐randomised field trial design was used with a sample of 94 adolescents (aged 10–19 years) and 97 older people (aged ≥65 years), who were randomly allocated to intervention or control groups. In the control situation participants were asked to choose between three similar meals, one meat, one fish and one the VeggiEat dish. In the intervention, the VeggiEat dish was labelled the ‘Dish of the day’. All dishes were provided free of charge, displayed side by side in the same order and served in same portions. The dish choices showed no differences between the control and intervention groups in both age groups, and no differences were found among the other variables analysed. This nudging strategy, ‘dish of the day’, seems not to work for the Danish sample of adolescents and older people. Future nudging studies with these populations are needed in order to find the best strategy to move adolescents' and older people's food habits toward a healthier pattern.     

New Nonlinear Approaches for the Adjustment and Updating of a SAM

Many structural relationships should be taken into account in any reasonable adjustment and updating process. These structural relationships are mainly represented by ratios of different types, such as technical coefficients or the proportion of the cell value in relation to its row or column total. We believe that in many cases (either because of lack of information or when the time elapsed for the estimation of a social accounting matrix is not long enough to allow for any significant structural change) the updating process should try to minimize the rela- tive deviation of the new coefficients from the initial ones in a homogeneous way. This homogeneity would mean that the magnitude of this relative deviation is similar among the elements of each row or column, therefore avoiding the concentration of the changes in particular cells of the SAM. In this work, we propose some new adjustment criteria in order to obtain a more homogeneous relative adjustment of the structural coefficients. These criteria combine the adjustment method proposed by Matuszewski et al. (1964) with other deviation functions. Each of the adjustment criteria proposed leads to a nonlinear optimization problem which is reformulated as a linear program. We test the usefulness of this proposal by comparing its results with the ones obtained by more standard approaches and we are able to show that these approaches tend to produce a less homogeneous pattern of coefficient adjustment, under certain circumstances, than the ones we put forward.     

On Non-existence of Markov Equilibria in Competitive-Market Economies

This paper presents some examples of regular dynamic economies with externalities and taxes that either lack existence of a Markov equilibrium or such equilibrium is not continuous. These examples pose further challenges for the analysis and computation of these economies. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C10, C62.