Exploring tax evasion in the context of political uncertainty

We present a model of agents facing the uncertainty of two future forms of government who are able to insure against this uncertainty by hiding funds from taxation. In order to choose whether or not to hide funds from taxation, agents need to know policy choices that each government would make should it come to power. But each government, before it could make its decision, would need to know the choices of the agents who would, for example, produce tax revenues. This informational tension is resolved endogenously. We derive the resulting level of tax evasion in society and the optimal choices made by the potential governments. We examine how changes in governmental structure would affect the level of tax evasion, and how that, in turn, would affect a particular form of capital flight.     

A comparison of two model averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics

Parameter estimation under model uncertainty is a difficult and fundamental issue in econometrics. This paper compares the performance of various model averaging techniques. In particular, it contrasts Bayesian model averaging (BMA) — currently one of the standard methods used in growth empirics — with a new method called weighted-average least squares (WALS). The new method has two major advantages over BMA: its computational burden is trivial and it is based on a transparent definition of prior ignorance. The theory is applied to and sheds new light on growth empirics where a high degree of model uncertainty is typically present.     

Is there a good governance model for the delivery of contemporary transport policy and practice? An examination of Melbourne and Perth

Land use and transport integration (LUTI) is a contemporary planning policy and practice that supports sustainable transport. Attempts to implement LUTI have raised questions about the appropriate organisational structure and the role of governance to deliver this policy. This paper presents the discussions from two public fora held in 2008 in Melbourne and Perth, Australia. Their purpose was to examine the governance arrangements for land use and transport integration. It is concluded that integration of land use and transport agencies does not mean that land use transport integration will be achieved in practice. Rather than simple organisational re-structuring, a focus on networked governance, together with strong regulation, is conducive to inclusive policy development and the implementation of land use and transport integration policies.     

Antitrust and Vertical Integration in “New Economy” Industries with Application to Broadband Access

Whether the firms that supply Internet hardware and software should face restrictions on the use of their property is an important and controversial policy issue. Advocates of “net neutrality”—including President Obama and the current FCC majority—believe that owners of broadband distribution systems (hardware used to distribute Internet and video services) and producers of certain “must-have” video content should be subject to prophylactic regulation that transcends present-day antitrust law enforcement. In the economic terms that are used in debates on competition policy, the concern is with vertical integration that may give firms both the opportunity (through denial of access or price discrimination) and incentive (increased profit) to restrict competition. This paper’s central point is that virtually every production process in the economy is vertically integrated, and economics predicts changes in the extent of vertical integration—that is, changes in the boundaries of the firm—in response to changes in relative prices, technology, or institutions. Both vertical integration and changes in the extent of vertical integration are benign characteristics of efficient, dynamic, competitive markets. While there is no shortage of theoretical models in which vertical integration may be harmful, most such models have restrictive assumptions and ambiguous welfare predictions—even when market power is assumed to be present. Empirical evidence that vertical integration or vertical restraints are harmful is weak, compared to evidence that vertical integration is beneficial—again, even in cases where market power appears to be present. Thus, it is reasonable to conclude that prophylactic regulation is not necessary, and may well reduce welfare. Sound policy is to wait for ex post evidence of harm to justify interventions in specific cases. Net neutrality, recently enacted by the FCC but subject to judicial review, is an unfortunate idea.     

Using fear appeals to promote cancer screening—are we scaring the wrong people?

• There is debate regarding the use of fear appeals (emphasizing severe threats to health) in social marketing, to encourage preventive behaviours, such as screening for breast cancer. While it has been found that fear appeals may result in attitude and behaviour change there is also the risk of inciting inappropriate levels of fear, motivating the wrong audience or instigating maladaptive behaviour in the target group such as denial or defensive avoidance. This study examined the impact of an experimental threat manipulation for mammography screening on a group of women in regional Australia. The study found that varying the level of threat had no impact on stated intentions of the women to undergo mammographic screening. However, it also found that high-threat messages resulted in stronger negative emotional reactions and greater perceived susceptibility among younger women who are not the target group for screening in Australia. The results of this study emphasize the importance of limiting the use of high levels of threat in social marketing campaigns, and ensuring that campaigns are appropriately designed to specifically impact upon and motivate the target group.

Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Equity Capital Flows and Demand for REITs

REITs are attractive to investors due to their unique characteristics such as high dividend yields, low correlation with common stocks, and a potential hedge against inflation. Thus the market demand curve of REIT equities may not be horizontal. This paper examines the shape of the market demand curve for REIT equities by employing REIT equity capital flows as a proxy for REIT aggregate demand. Our results do not support a downward demand curve for REIT equities. That is, we do not find evidence for the price-pressure effect in REIT returns. Instead, we find it is REIT returns that affect REIT equity capital flows rather than REIT equity flows that affect REIT returns. The results are consistent when we allow for the presence of market fundamental variables in our analysis. In addition, a variance decomposition analysis suggests that REIT equity capital flows do not cause revisions in expected cash flows (dividends) that are strong enough to impact REIT returns. Thus our findings are consistent with implications that the market demand curve for REIT equities is horizontal.     

Stochastic rationing by waiting list

In a stochastic queueing environment in which participants maximize expected utility, changes in queueing parameters have predictable impacts on waiting list size. For example, a decrease in mean service time cannot produce a decrease in waiting list size when arrival rate and mean service time are functionally independent.     

An equilibrium model of a second economy market in a centrally planned economy

We study a CPE in which an identical good is sold on the official market (OM) and a “second economy” market (SEM ). Planners set parameters. Managers divide inputs between markets to maximize expected utility of wealth. Consumers are expected utility maximizers who purchase the good on the OM or SEM. On the OM, excess demand exists at the non-Walrasian price; delivery date is stochastic. The SEM offers immediate availability. Our solution concept involves the rational expectations of managers, the consistency of consumers' decisions, and a market-clearing SEM. We solve for SEM price and supply and investigate various comparative statics.     

Textile trade and the pattern of economic growth

Zusammenfassung Handel mit Textilien und wirtschaftliches Wachstum. — Dieser Aufsatz untersucht den Handel mit Textilien und Bekleidung sowie die Produktionsfaktoren, die mit der Wettbewerbsf?higkeit der Exporteure verbunden sind, und die Wirkung der allgemeinen Wettbewerbsf?higkeit auf den Entwicklungsproze\. Die Ausweitung der Textil- und Bekleidungsproduktion scheint im Entwicklungsproze\ sehr wichtig zu sein. Denn die Ausfuhr von Textilien und Bekleidung der gro\en Exportl?nder ist mit einem schnellen allgemeinen Exportwachstum sowie mit dem Zugang zu internationalem Kapital und mit schnellem Wachstum des Pro-Kopf-Einkommens verknüpft. Diejenigen L?nder, die bei der raschen Ausdehnung ihres Anteils auf den Weltm?rkten für Textilien und Bekleidung am erfolgreichsten gewesen sind, haben gleichzeitig mit Erfolg die Lohnstückkosten durch einen effizienten Kapitalcinsatz niedrig zu halten gewu\t. In diesen L?ndern sind die Ertr?ge für die Produktionsfaktoren au\er für den Faktor Arbeit sehr hoch. Insgesamt scheinen die effiziente Verwendung von Kapital und der hohe Lohn für die unternehmerische T?tigkeit eine Schlüsselstellung in dem dynamischen Entwicklungsproze einzunehmen.

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Résumé Le commerce de textile et la croissance économique. — Cet article examine le commerce de textile et de vêtement ainsi que les facteurs de production qui sont associés avec la compétitivité d’exportations et l’effet de la compétitivité générale sur le procès de développement. L’expansion de la production des textiles et des vêtements semble être un élément-clé dans le procès de développement. Les exportations des textiles et des vêtements par les grands pays exportatrices sont associées avec une rapide croissance des toutes les exportations, avec l’accès au capital international et avec une montée sensible du revenu par habitant. Les pays qui avaient beaucoup de succès d’augmenter rapidement leur rapport sur les marchés mondiaux des textiles et des vêtements sont ceux qui avaient beaucoup de succès de tenir les co?ts unitaires de main-d’oeuvre sur un niveau bas en utilisant le capital très effectivement. Ils sont aussi les pays qui offrent des taux de rendement très hauts aux facteurs exclusivement de la main-d’oeuvre. Comme résumé on peut dire que lútilisation effective de capital et les rémunérations hautes pour l‘activité des entrepreneurs semblent être le part-clé du procès dynamique de croissance.

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Resumen Comercio de textiles y el patrón de crecimiento económico. — En este artículo se examinan los patrones del comercio de textiles y vestuario, factores de producción que están asociados con la competitividad de exportatión y el impacto de la competitividad general sobre el proceso de desarrollo. La expansión de la producción de textiles y vestuario parece ser un elemento clave en el proceso de desarrollo. Las exportaciones de textiles y vestuario de los grandes países exportadores están asociadas con el rápido crecimiento general de las exportaciones, con el acceso a capitales internacionales y con el rápido incremento en el ingreso per cápita. Aquellos países que han mostrado ser los más exitosos en incrementar su participación en los mercados mundiales de textiles y vestuario son aquéllos que han tenido mayor éxito en mantener los costos de trabajo unitarios bajos, usando el capital en la forma más eficiente. Son también los países que ofrecen altas tasas de retorno a los factores no laborales. En suma, la eficiente utilizatión del capital y la alta recompensa al factor empresarial parecen ser elementos claves para un proceso de crecimiento dinámico.

     

How long is a piece of elastic? The measurement of female activity rates in British censuses, 1951-1981

The available evidence concerning the growth of female labor force participation in the United Kingdom since World War II is reviewed. The authors first discuss changing concepts, methods, and results in British censuses from 1951 to 1981. They then reconstruct female labor force trends to take into account the biases identified. They propose a series of economic activity and employee rates for females aged 20-59 and for the proportion of part-time female employees.