Have Employment Relationships in the United States Become Less Stable?

There has been considerable debate as to whether job stability has declined in the United States. This paper uses data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to examine the incidence of labor market turnover between 1986 and 1993. Specifically, we calculate one- and two-year separation rates and then analyze turnover by the source of separation. We find that the incidence of job separations did not increase over the period under investigation, but appears to have declined somewhat. When analyzing separations by reason, conditional on separating from an employer, we find little evidence of temporal changes in the composition of turnover that would indicate greater employment instability. Therefore, we do not find conclusive evidence that employment relationships have become more unstable in the recent past.      

Oil prices and economic activity: evidence for G-7 economies based on a wavelet approach

This study examines the relationship between oil prices and economic activity in the G-7 economies during the period 1960M1–2014M07 using a wavelet approach. The results show significant differences in the relationship between these two variables depending on the frequencies. Furthermore, we find that oil price shocks affect economic activity at low frequencies (long run) in all G-7 countries, while the effect at high frequencies (short run) is limited to a few countries.     

Corporate Stock and Bond Return Correlations and Dynamic Adjustments of Capital Structure

This paper analyses the effects of dynamic correlations between stock and bond returns issued by the same firm on the speed of adjustment towards target leverage. The results show that the estimated correlations are time varying, show persistence and differ among firms. Analysis of the potential explanatory variables reveals that the correlations decrease with negative expectations about future aggregate risks, but only for firms with a low default probability. In contrast, correlations are positively associated with specific risk measures, especially idiosyncratic stock risk and financial leverage. The positive relationship between the correlations and the leverage ratio suggests that target leverage can be achieved faster when the stock–bond correlation is high. Our results show that this is the case.     

Diversification strategy and systematic risk

This paper addresses the relationship between diversification strategy and systematic risk (beta). Beta values are examined for six diversification categories, and it is found that betas for unrelated diversifiers are significantly higher than those of other firms. Possible contributions to this difference, including market power, capital structure, and capital intensity are explored.     

The determinants of aggregate-merger activity—Before and after Celler-Kefauver

Regression analysis was used to determine the significant determinants of aggregate merger activity before and after 1950. This study found that stock prices were positively related to merger activity both before and after 1950. However, interest rates were positively related to merger activity prior to 1950, and negatively related to merger activity after 1950. This may have been the result of the Treasury Accord of 1951, which stopped pegging of interest rates. The unemployment rate was negatively related to mergers before 1950, but insignificantly related to mergers after 1950. The decreased significance of the unemployment rate could be the result of the passage of the Celler-Kefauver amendment to the Clayton Act. Tightened regulation may have caused businesses to take a longer run view of merger activity and decreased the business cycle effect. In conclusion, changes in both the regulatory environment and monetary policy have influenced the level of merger activity since 1950.