ESTIMATION OF VALUE AT RISK AND RUIN PROBABILITY FOR DIFFUSION PROCESSES WITH JUMPS

In this paper we give upper bounds for both the Value at Risk   VaR _α,  0 < α < 1  , and for ruin probabilities associated with the supremum of a process driven by a Brownian motion and a compound Poisson process. We obtain lower bounds for the same Value at Risk, and for different cases we discuss the behavior of the bounds for small α. We prove our bounds are "asymptotically" optimal, as α tends to zero. The ruin probabilities obtained are related to other bounds found in recent literature.     

Implications of perceived competitive advantages,adaptation of marketing tactics and export commitment on export performance

The aim of this exploratory paper is to fill an important gap in the international marketing literature by examining the influence of firm behavior in foreign markets (export commitment and adaptation of marketing tactics) on perceived competitive advantages and export performance. Using a sample of 150 Spanish export firms, the study found that firms that are more committed to their foreign markets are more willing to adapt elements of the marketing program. These firms also perform better in foreign markets. Moreover, the results also point out that adapting marketing tactics does not have direct effects on export performance, although it does have on the achievement of perceived competitive advantages in foreign markets, which positively influence export performance.     

Smokeless tobacco,smoking cessation and harm reduction: an economic analysis

Good estimates place ‘hard core’ smoking rates in the United States at approximately 25%, with little change over the decade of the 1990s. This paper examines the possibilities of ‘harm reduction’ with the use of smokeless tobacco. Specifically, using an econometric model we seek to determine whether an increase in the use of smokeless tobacco would lead to reduced smoking rates in the United States. Applying our model to the NHANES III (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) we find that the use of smokeless tobacco by an average U.S. male smoker would increase the average probability of smoke cessation by over 10%. Approximately 3 million additional ‘quits’ would result for 26 million smokers. Our study permits an examination of cessation by age groups and we find that males who use smokeless tobacco between 16 and 65 have a 10–14% probability of quitting but that the probability falls beyond age 66. Important implications for life extension and health costs would attend these results with, under conservative assumptions, life years saved approximating 2.16 million and health care cost-savings of about $3 billion per year.     

Gut geruht?

Schlafst?rungen vorbeugen - Oft sind Schlafst?rungen Bestandteil psychischer, organischer oder neurologisch degenerativer Erkrankungen. Sie k?nnen aber auch die Folge falschen Verhaltens oder ungemessener Schlafbedingungen sein. Also: Was f?rdert gesunden Schlaf, was behindert ihn?     

Considerations on “Research on non-market actions: A commentary essay”

This commentary is in response to the commentary, “Research on Non-Market Actions: A Commentary Essay” [Wang, C-J. Research on Non-Market Actions: A Commentary Essay. J Bus Res (2008)] on the paper, “First come, first served: How market and non-market actions influence pioneer market share” [Usero B, Fernández Z, First come, first served: How market and non-market actions influence pioneer market share. J Bus Res (2008), doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2008.07.005]. The commentary responds directly to Wang's [Wang, C-J. Research on Non-Market Actions: A Commentary Essay. J Bus Res (2008)] comments and proposes further lines of research that integrate the competitive dynamic approach with studies of non-market actions.     

Contextualizing Voice and Stakeholders: Researching Employment Relations,Immigration and Trade Unions

This article aims to outline some of the ways in which issues of migration and employment relations have been studied in the European context, cross referencing recent interventions in the USA. The argument is a discussion of some of the different dimensions of migration and the way debates within Industrial Relations have been shaped. More specifically, the article will look at the way trade unions have made the ethical turn towards questions of migration and equality. The article will observe the way these issues have been academically framed and the manner in which the ‘problem’ of migration is conceptualized. It will attempt to provide a framework for discussing the way we have been analysing these issues and the ethical dimensions of these discussions. The relevance of the article is that institutionally responding to migration is not solely a question of adjusting employment relations or Industrial Relations institutions to various ‘new’ constituencies. The article will show that the topic raises issues as to how we actually understand what the study of employment and especially Industrial Relations are. The article also argues that there is a growing need for researchers to be aware of ethical issues when studying in the area of migration, and to be sensitive to competing voices and methodologies in this area. In particular we need approaches that are multidimensional and that emphasize the history and context of change in social constituencies, the new mechanisms of representation within communities, the role of the political in terms of discourses and resources, and the broad play and spaces of regulation and social policy.     

UNDERSTANDING THE FINANCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE BULLWHIP EFFECT IN A MULTI‐ECHELON SUPPLY CHAIN

This article is concerned with how supply chain strategies can mitigate the Bullwhip Effect and inflated inventories from the perspective of the central firm (typically a manufacturer) in the supply chain. We first outline a base case scenario with a validated system dynamics simulation model, using supply chain characteristics as reported by a real firm, in this case a Mexican electronics supplier to U.S. automobile assemblers. We find, surprisingly, that a lower Bullwhip Effect Index (BE) does not always lead to lower costs in the supply chain studied. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis suggests some interesting, counterintuitive results. The implications of these findings are further developed as we test how lead time reduction can also reduce the Bullwhip Effect in the simulated setting.     

DO PERCEPTIONS BECOME REALITY? THE MODERATING ROLE OF SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCY ON DISRUPTION OCCURRENCE

The concern and study of supply risk and supply continuity has recently come to the forefront in managing business and conducting research. This empirical study of U.S. and German firms investigates the relationship between perceived supply risk sources and supply disruption occurrence, as well as the use of supply chain resiliency practices to reduce disruption frequency. We demonstrate that supply managers' concerns with risk emanating from suppliers and the supply market are positively related to supply disruption occurrence. We further show how and when implementing flexibility and redundancy may reduce the effects of supply disruptions.     

Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage‐Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields

Differences between yields on comparable‐maturity U.S. Treasury nominal and real debt, the so‐called breakeven inflation (BEI) rates, are widely used indicators of inflation expectations. However, better measures of inflation expectations could be obtained by subtracting inflation risk premiums (IRP) from the BEI rates. We provide such decompositions using an affine arbitrage‐free model of the term structure that captures the pricing of both nominal and real Treasury securities. Our empirical results suggest that long‐term inflation expectations have been well anchored over the past few years, and IRP, although volatile, have been close to zero on average.     

The Impact of Outsourcing Strategies on Information Systems Capabilities in the Hotel Industry

This work analyses the strategy of outsourcing information systems and information technology (IS/IT), considering the different activities comprising the IS/IT area. The literature on IS contains numerous works that analyse outsourcing, very few of which examine the relationship with the different types of capabilities in the IS/IT area and their strategic value. Most works centre on the motives for, and advantages of, the strategy of outsourcing the IS/IT area, while scant attention has been paid to the study of the long-term consequences of outsourcing. This work develops a theoretical model which is applied to the hotel sector and which shows that hotels following a more intensive outsourcing strategy develop fewer managerial capabilities related to knowledge in the management of IS/IT resources. This negative relationship extends to other types of capabilities typical of the area and to certain organisational capabilities. A negative relationship is also observed between the level of outsourcing and the strategic value given to the IS/IT area, which may lead to a lower potential for the development of competitive advantage.