Momentum and Credit Rating

This paper establishes a robust link between momentum and credit rating. Momentum profitability is large and significant among low‐grade firms, but it is nonexistent among high‐grade firms. The momentum payoffs documented in the literature are generated by low‐grade firms that account for less than 4% of the overall market capitalization of rated firms. The momentum payoff differential across credit rating groups is unexplained by firm size, firm age, analyst forecast dispersion, leverage, return volatility, and cash flow volatility.     

Cyclical Changes in Firm Volatility

We characterize trends and cycles in the volatility of U.S. firms using a measure that we argue more cleanly captures firm‐specific volatility in sales and earnings growth than standard measures do. While earlier literature has emphasized a trend increase in the volatility of publicly traded firms, we find that a typical publicly traded firm has become more stable. We find that the negative association between firm‐specific volatility and the business cycle is weaker than earlier research based on dispersion measures suggests. We find that during the Great Recession of 2007–2009, firm‐specific volatility increased moderately but never substantially exceeded its sample mean. Our results are inconsistent with the hypothesis that firm‐specific volatility is an important driver of the business cycle, as it theoretically could be through an effect of default risk on credit spreads.     

Consumers' Attitude Change Across Sequences of Successful and Unsuccessful Product Usage

In two experiments we examine how consumers are affected by a sequence composed of an initial product-failure experience followed by a success experience. Our interest is to assess how consumers' evaluation of the product and of their own performance change after the second experience. A preliminary experiment used hypothetical scenarios describing consumers' experiences with different products. In the main experiment, participants received actual hands-on experience with a Smith-Corona Personal Typewriter/Word Processor. A major result was that product evaluations could be as high following a failure-success sequence of experiences as following success alone. This was especially true with hands-on experiences. However, the main experiment showed that negative affect (frustration) expressed following an actual product failure experience remained even after a subsequent success. Marketing implications of these dual results are discussed.     

Trading and Shareholder Democracy

We study shareholder voting in a model in which trading affects the composition of the shareholder base. Trading and voting are complementary, which gives rise to self-fulfilling expectations about proposal acceptance and multiple equilibria. Prices and shareholder welfare can move in opposite directions, so the former may be an invalid proxy for the latter. Relaxing trading frictions can reduce welfare because it allows extreme shareholders to gain more weight in voting. Delegating decision-making to the board can help overcome collective action problems at the voting stage. We also analyze the role of index investors and social concerns of shareholders.     

Integrating Factor Models

This paper develops a comprehensive framework to address uncertainty about the correct factor model. Asset pricing inferences draw on a composite model that integrates over competing factor models weighted by posterior probabilities. Evidence shows that unconditional models record near-zero probabilities, while postearnings announcement drift, quality-minus-junk, and intermediary capital are potent factors in conditional asset pricing. Out-of-sample, the integrated model performs well, tilting away from subsequently underperforming factors. Model uncertainty makes equities appear considerably riskier, while model disagreement about expected returns spikes during crash episodes. Disagreement spans all return components involving mispricing, factor loadings, and risk premia.