Macroeconomic Stability or Cycles? The Role of the Wage‐Price Spiral

We formulate a small and stylised dynamic macroeconomic model, and study how different specifications of the supply side affect the model's dynamic properties. The wage‐price equilibrium‐correction model (ECM) and the Phillips curve model (PCM) that both can be used to represent the supply side of a New Keynesian macro model, are synthesised in a generalised model of the wage‐price spiral. We show that the choice of ECM or PCM has implications for the long‐run stability of the macro model, without need of a NAIRU. We also find that the range of theoretically admissible dynamics is wide. For example, both the ECM and PCM may display endogenous cyclical fluctuations in inflation and unemployment, showing that even simple structures can give rise to complex dynamics. In practice that may entail that forecasting the effects of shocks and policy changes is difficult even in the best of circumstances.     

Agent-Based E-Supply Chain Decision Support

The global Internet economy is expected, over time, to give rise to increasingly agile practices where new supply chain arrangements are dynamically set up in response to changing business conditions and demands for highly customized products and services. To implement these "e-supply chain" practices, enterprises need the ability to rapidly evaluate new business opportunities and dynamically identify the best potential supply chain partners to respond to them. They also need the ability to effectively coordinate production and delivery of goods or services across the resulting value chains. In this article, we introduce MASCOT, an agent-based decision support environment for dynamic supply chain management. MASCOT agents help users distributed across multiple organizations and across different levels within a given enterprise to collaborate on the development and revision of supply chain solutions, as they evaluate different business opportunities (e.g., requests for bids from potential customers) and different sourcing options. This article also discusses new coordination protocols, developed within the context of MASCOT and aimed at better exploiting the power of finite capacity scheduling functionality across the supply chain. Empirical results are presented quantifying the benefits afforded by these new protocols under different loads and supply chain configurations.     

Remote operation in environmentally sensitive areas: development of early warning indicators

Exploration and production of oil and gas in certain sensitive areas such as the Barents Sea and Lofoten is controversial and further expansion depends on the ability to avoid harmful spills. One way of improving the ability to avoid such spills is to use early warning indicators. The objective of the work presented in this paper is to describe and compare strengths and weaknesses of different approaches for the development of early warning indicators. The approaches that have been compared are: safety performance-based methods; risk-based methods; incident-based methods; and resilience-based methods. There are pros and cons with all methods. All methods are very favorable with respect to some characteristics and at the same time very unfavorable to some other characteristics. They are also different in terms of scope and depth of analysis. This suggests that we should be flexible with respect to the choice of methods, and preferably use more than one method. Thus, the main conclusion is that it is favorable to have the possibility to use several different methods for the establishment of early warning indicators.     

Catching-Up Investment without Regulatory Commitment

This paper analyses a regulated firms incentives to undertake catching-up investments when the firm has private information about the initial technology and the regulator is unable to commit himself to incentive contracts prior to the firms investment decision. In the absence of commitment power, the firm takes into account that the investment decision may serve as a signal to the regulator about the firms initial technology. Any pure strategy equilibrium of the signaling game is shown to be pooling in the sense that the efficient type mimics the inefficient type by investing. By not following this strategy, the efficient type reveals its efficiency to the regulator, who responds by inducing the firm to produce without rents. Restricting attention to undefeated pooling equilibria, the level of investment is shown to be lower than the first-best level.     

Temporal Aggregation in Repeated Sales Models

Over the years, repeated sales models have come to wide and even commercial use. However, considering the subset of dwellings sold twice entail several challenges. Small sample problems constitute a special concern in repeated sales models, since sample sizes tend to be smaller than hedonic methods based on all transactions in a given period of time. Moreover, a cluster of observations in one time period does not only influence the index corresponding to that particular time period, but all other estimated indexes. A simulation approach is used to study the interplay between sample size and temporal aggregation. The analysis shows that serious mis-measurements may occur even in cases where the statistical diagnostic tools like R ² and t-values and empiric standard deviations indicate good explanatory power. However, the risk of serious biases driven by sparse data sets tends to be small, even if the actual estimated price curve show signs of under-smoothing. Mis-measured curves have unstable estimates with respect to temporal aggregation. Two repeated models, one with a slightly finer time partition achieved by adding one more time dummy, used on the same sample can alter the index estimate at a given time with as much at 10–15%. The simulations reveal that varying temporal aggregation is a powerful diagnostic tool and should be employed routinely. The last part of the paper shows that choosing an appropriate temporal aggregation involves more than merely a balance between under-smoothing and over-smoothing. Efficiency questions tend to be better addressed by a higher temporal aggregation, than a good overall estimation of the price curve alone calls for.      

Apple's agency model and the role of most‐favored‐nation clauses

The agency model used by Apple and other digital platforms delegates retail‐pricing decisions to upstream content providers subject to a fixed revenue‐sharing rule. Given competition both upstream and downstream, we consider how, under the agency model, retail prices depend on the firms' revenue‐sharing splits and the degrees to which consumers view the platforms and the goods sold on the platforms to be substitutes. We show that the agency model may not be universally adopted even if adoption would mean higher profits for all firms. Use of most‐favored‐nation clauses in these settings can ensure industry‐wide adoption and increase retail prices.     

Cattle sharing and rental contracts in an Agrarian economy: evidence from Ethiopia

Empirical evidence on the role of cattle sharing and rental contracts in agrarian economies is limited. This article is an investigation of different types of cattle sharing and rental contracts producers in rural Ethiopia adopt. It also investigates why households in rural Ethiopia rely on these contracts that are vulnerable and therefore subject to potential moral hazard problems described in earlier literature. We apply random effect probit and control function econometric methods to household panel data collected in 2005 and 2007 from two agro‐ecological zones in Ethiopia. Controlling for the endogeneity of access to livestock credit, we find that contracts are spatially fragmented and better developed where population density is high and credit and insurance markets are poorly developed. We also find that contracts help cash poor and credit constrained households to improve their herd dynamics, to get access to nonlivestock resources (land, labor and cash) and share risks that could have been difficult without the contract. We show that contracts are rational responses of residents in rural communities characterized by imperfect credit and insurance services, since households with better access to credit are less likely to rely on contracts.     

Economic Incentives,Business Cycles,and Long‐Term Sickness Absence

We investigate long‐term absenteeism in Norway, on the basis of register data covering 8 years and more than two million absence spells. Key findings are that: (1) a tighter labor market yields lower work resumption rates for persons who are absent, and higher relapse rates for persons who have already resumed work; and (2) the work resumption rates increase when sickness benefits are exhausted, but work resumptions at this stage tend to be short‐lived.