From Phillips curve to wage curve

Summary In most traditional macroeconomic models for The Netherlands the wage equation is specified by a Phillips curve, in which wage growth is negatively related to the unemployment rate. This paper shows, however, that wage formation can better be described by the so-called wage curve, in which the wage level, instead of wage growth, depends negatively on the unemployment rate.The author thanks S.K. Kuipers and D.A.G. Draper and other colleagues of the Central Planning Bureau for their useful comments.     

Demographic & related differences in ethical views among small businesses

This study examines the effects of demographic characteristics on ethical perceptions. While earlier research has produced conflicting results regarding the predictive power of these variables, significant and definite insights were obtained with proper controls. The following predictors of ethical attitudes are examined: age, gender, marital status, education, dependent children status, region of the country and years in business, while controlling for job status. A nation-wide random sample of employees was used in obtaining a response rate of fifty-three percent (total n of 423). Indices of aspects of business ethical attitudes were constructed using factor analysis. Linear multiple regression analysis indicated the significant predictive variables. Age was found to be a most-significant predictor. Older workers had stricter interpretations of ethical standards. Gender and region predicted attitudes about job-discrimination practices only, with women and persons from the Midwest most strongly opposed to the practice. All the other variables proved to be unreliable ethics predictors.Paul Serwinek is a research affiliated with Wayne State University. He has done extensive research in business management and consulting work in the field of insurance agency employee job satisfaction.SPSS PC Plus Computer Program used.     

EFFECTS OF THE FARMER SUPPORT PROGRAMME AND CHANGES IN MARKETING POLICIES ON MAIZE PRODUCTION IN SOUTH AFRICA

This article analyses the effects of action aimed at narrowing the gap between South Africa's ‘two agricultures’, specifically the effects of the Farmer Support Programme (FSP) on structural aspects of maize production under different marketing policies. This is done by assembling a sectoral linear programming model of the South African summer-rainfall grain-producing area. The emphasis is on the inclusion of supply, demand and production risk. Results show that the effects of a successful FSP on specific interest groups, e.g. consumers of a specific product, or producers in a specific region, depend on the marketing policy followed, as well as on the effectiveness of the FSP. The analysis accentuates the interrelationships in South African crop production and illustrates how past policies ignored regional comparative advantages, distorted regional development and affected social welfare.     

PROCYCLICAL RETAIL LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY*

The influence of lagged adjustment and consumer spending on retail labour productivity is investigated. Both influences result in a procyclical productivity pattern.     

Time Series Concepts for Conditional Distributions*

The paper asks the question – as time series analysis moves from consideration of conditional mean values and variances to unconditional distributions, do some of the familiar concepts devised for the first two moments continue to be helpful in the more general area? Most seem to generalize fairly easy, such as the concepts of breaks, seasonality, trends and regime switching. Forecasting is more difficult, as forecasts become distributions, as do forecast errors. Persistence can be defined and also common factors by using the idea of a copula. Aggregation is more difficult but causality and controllability can be defined. The study of the time series of quantiles becomes more relevant.     

Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa*

Two of the main forces driving European emigration in the late nineteenth century were real wage gaps between sending and receiving regions and demographic booms in the low‐wage sending regions. Our new estimates of net migration for the countries of sub‐Saharan Africa show that exactly the same forces driving African across‐border migration are at work today. The results suggest that rapid growth in the cohort of potential young emigrants, population pressure on the resource base, and slow economic growth are likely to intensify the pressure for migration out of Africa and into high‐wage OECD countries over the next two decades.