Stock Market's Response to Real Output Shocks in China: A VARwAL Estimation

This paper studies the connection between the stock market and real output in China and compares it with benchmark countries, employing a novel vector autoregression with asymmetric leads (VARwAL) model. It makes two contributions. First, it finds that the time profile of the Chinese stock market's response to real output shocks suggests no evidence of a distorted relationship due to manipulation of Chinese real output data or domination of the Chinese stock market by individual investors. Rather, the Chinese stock market is relatively more responsive to real output, in line with the larger share of manufacturing in the Chinese economy. Electricity output and industrial profits, two different, less-manipulable time series, yield similar results. Second, it presents the first use of VARwAL impulse responses to detect stock market bubbles: VARwAL captures the 2015 bubble in China successfully. Over the full sample period, China's stock market appears to have been less prone to bubbles than the US stock market.     

ICO investors

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - We conduct a detailed analysis of investors in successful initial coin offerings (ICOs). The average ICO has 4700 contributors. The median participant...     

Film and ideology: narrative analysis of the student movement in Iranian Cinema (2001–2004)

Quality & Quantity - Cinema has a complex relation with the state and social reality in Iran. Between 2001 and 2004, Iranian cinema was under the control of the ideology of the Islamic Left....     

Souveränität und Verantwortung im Mehrebenensystem: Subsidiarität als Leitmotiv?

Wirtschaftsdienst - Der Subsidiaritätsgedanke sollte von den politischen Entscheidungstragenden sowie von im europäischen Mehrebenensystem mitwirkenden Akteur:innen beachtet werden. Dazu...     

Can import controls really be helpful?

In Great Britain wide circles have for some time reflected on the advantages of import restrictions as a means of increasing employment. The following article examines the validity of some major arguments brought forward in support of import curbs.     

Will there be a worldwide recession?

In recent weeks, fears of a worldwide economic recession have become widespread because more and more symptoms appear that resemble those at the start of the great depression of 1929. However, wrong conclusions may be drawn from similar symptoms unless basic development trends as well as the differences in overall data and in functional relations are seen at the same time.