Corporate performance following stock offerings

There is substantial evidence that stock offerings contain a negative signal, based on numerous studies on the immediate market reaction to the announcement. These studies document the market's ex ante view of how the offering will affect the firm. Our objective is to determine whether the adverse signal is accurate by measuring long-term valuation effects following the stock offering. We find a strong negative valuation effect that accumulates to –30.28 percent after 60 months following the stock offering. These long-term effects were more unfavorable for firms that (1) have relatively large stock offerings, (2) have more free cash flow, (3) experienced larger stock price runups before the offering, and (4) had higher market to book value ratios prior to the offering.     

Integrated modeling for exploring sustainable agriculture futures

Sustainable agriculture meets human needs for food, enhances the quality of life of people, protects the integrity of natural systems, and is economically profitable. Making a transition to agricultural sustainability involves difficult choices and an understanding of the complex trade-offs associated with different agricultural pathways. In this paper, we describe the development and application of a decision support tool—AgFutures—for exploring alternative futures for agricultural sustainability in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia. The main core of the model is simulation of future land-use changes in different scenarios and assessment of social, economic and environmental consequences under these scenarios. Evolution of land-use is simulated as a result of not only biophysical conditions but also as a result of human behaviour and choices, specifically related to lifestyle, agricultural management practices and institutional policies. Eight different scenarios are generated and compared for their impacts on sustainability in the Lower Mainland.AgFutures helps users to identify desirable future scenarios and the set of choices and trade-offs that they are willing to accept. Identification of these allows decision-makers to formulate policies that would lead to achieving the goals of sustainable agriculture. The novel aspect of this model lies in its design and methods, which represent a balance between the need for rigour and the need for a tool that can be used by a wide array of users.     

A COMPARABLES APPROACH TO MEASURING CASHFLOW-AT-RISK FOR NON-FINANCIAL FIRMS

Cashflow-at-Risk (C-FaR) is an attempt to create an analogue to Value at Risk (VaR) that can be used by non-financial firms to quantify various kinds of risk exposures, including interest rate, exchange rate, and commodity price risks. There are two basic ways to attack this problem. One is from the "bottom up," which involves building a detailed model of all of a company's specific exposures. The C-Far approach presented here is a "top-down" method of comparables that looks directly at the ultimate item of interest—the companies' cashflows. The fundamental challenge facing the top-down strategy is that, for any one company, there is not enough data on its own cashflows to make precise statements about the likelihood of rare events. To get around this problem, the authors match a target company with a large set of comparable companies that are expected to have similar cashflow volatility. The comparables are chosen to be close to the target company on four dimensions: (1) market cap; (2) profitability; (3) industry risk; and (4) stock price volatility.
C-FaR can be useful to managers addressing a variety of corporate finance decisions. For example, by providing estimates of the probability of financial distress, the C-FaR method can be used in conjunction with capital structure data to help formulate debt-equity tradeoffs in a more precise, quantifiable fashion. It can also be used to evaluate a firm's overall risk management strategy, including the expected benefits of using derivatives to hedge commodity-price exposures or the purchase of insurance policies. Moreover, C-FaR may even have a use in investor relations: by disclosing the results of a comparables-based C-FaR analysis ahead of time, a company may be able to cushion earnings shocks by furnishing investors or analysts with credible, objective estimates of what is likely to happen to their cash flows under different economic scenarios.     

A Keynesian model of search and labor market disequilibrium

The paper develops Keynesian employment dynamics in a search model with stochastic vacancy-availability playing the major role. A UV curve is derived from the search dynamics, and in effect represents a demand for searchers to maintain employment levels. The supply of searchers is determined from the real wage, the duration of the search necessary to locate a vacancy, and layoff probabilities. Persistent disequilibrium in the labor market is examined, and it is shown how a lowering of the real wage can increase employment and lower unemployment.     

Building Power Together: Union Support for Central Labour Bodies

One of the key factors in the success of labour federations is to have affiliate unions who actively participate and support their work. This article examines the catalysts behind union involvement with central labour bodies and presents an analysis of the organizational motivations for engagement. The article uses comparative case study analysis to examine affiliate union commitment in the United States to the American Federation of Labor–Congress of Industrial Organizations' state federations, area labour federations and central labour councils. Union leadership, along with contextual, interpretative and organizational factors, was found to influence the level of affiliate union involvement in central labour bodies.     

The cost of operational risk loss insurance

Using the Algo FIRST operational risk database, this paper computes the cost of operational risk loss insurance for a sample of banks over a 1-year horizon. The estimated cost of 1-year operational risk loss insurance for an average bank is 1.24% as a percentage of firm value on December 31, 2006, while an average AA bank is 0.24%. These estimates far exceed the typical 1-year default insurance premiums as reflected in market CDS rates for similarly rated banks. These insurance premiums confirm the economic importance of operational risk in the management of financial institutions.     

Do the Big 4 and the Second-tier firms provide audits of similar quality?

In this paper, we examine audit quality for Big 4 and Second-tier auditors during 2003–2006. We utilize the auditor’s propensity to issue a going concern audit report for distressed clients as a measure of audit quality. In addition, since the purpose of an audit is to improve financial reporting quality, we utilize abnormal accruals as an observable proxy for audit quality. Further, we utilize the client- and year-specific ex ante equity risk premium as a proxy for audit quality as perceived by investors. We control for auditor self-selection bias using the matched-pairs sample approach discussed by Francis and Lennox (2008). We find weak evidence that the Big 4 have a higher propensity to issue going concern audit opinions for distressed companies. However, the level of performance-adjusted abnormal accruals for Big 4 and Second-tier audit firm clients appears to be similar. With respect to investor perceptions, we find the client-specific ex ante equity risk premium to be lower for Big 4 clients than for Second-tier audit firm clients. Overall, our findings suggest little difference in actual audit quality but a more pronounced difference in perceived audit quality. Collectively, the evidence we provide informs the current discourse on audit quality, auditor choice, and the viability of Second-tier auditors as an alternative to the Big 4.     

An information-based model of target stock price runup in the market for corporate control

The stock price runup of target firms in the market for corporate control has been anecdotally attributed to inside trading. Moreover, the empirical merger and acquisitions literature documents a time-varying level and duration of the stock price runup of target firms. Using a market microstructure approach, we model stock price runup as a stochastic process that shifts between a random walk without drift and a predictable process dependent on a parsimonious set of state variables. Consistent with the market microstructure literature, predictability in prices can be exploited only by the informed trader. The model is capable of explaining the complex stylized facts observed in stock price runup. It is also consistent with the merger wave literature, as we find that capital liquidity, economic growth, and market valuations drive the complex dynamics of stock price runup.     

Simple rules for making alliances work

Corporate alliances are growing in number--by about 25% a year--and account for up to a third of revenues and value at many companies. Yet some 60% to 70% of them fail. What is going wrong? Because alliances involve interdependence between companies that may be competitors and may also have vastly different operating styles and cultures, they demand more care and handling than other business arrangements, say Hughes and Weiss, management consultants at Vantage Partners. The authors have developed five principles--based on their two decades of work with alliances -to complement the conventional advice on alliance management: (1) Focus less on defining the business plan and more on how you and your partner will work together. (2) Develop metrics pegged not only to alliance goals but also to performance in working toward them. (3) Instead of trying to eliminate differences, leverage them to create value. (4) Go beyond formal systems and structures to enable and encourage collaborative behavior. (5) Be as diligent in managing your internal stakeholders as you are in managing the relationship with your partner. Companies that have adopted these principles have radically improved their alliance success rate. Schering-Plough, for example, engages in a systematic "alliance relationship launch": four to six weeks of meetings at which the partners explore potential challenges, examine key differences and develop shared protocols for managing them, and establish mechanisms for day-to-day decision making. Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Florida measures the quality of alliance progress through regular surveys of both its own staff and its partners'. These companies have learned that the conventional advice is not so much wrong as incomplete. The five simple rules can help fill in the blanks.