Determinants of dairy-product trade: Do subsidies matter?

Given the recent changes in the supply and demand of dairy products, many opportunities arise for exporting and importing countries. This paper examines determinants of dairy-product trade by applying the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method to the gravity model using panel data on 49 exporting and 235 importing countries for the 17 years from 2000 to 2016. The gravity model is estimated using both interval data and dynamic analyses. The results show that domestic subsidies have a modest, but significant, impact on dairy-product trade across the models. For example, a 1% increase in subsidies leads to a roughly 0.02% increase in trade for an average country. Memberships in trade agreements, market size factors, and government institutions also positively affect dairy-product trade. However, tariffs are insignificant in the main model specification. Results from the lag-policy analysis show that the impact of subsidies disappears after the second year of distribution; whereas for the lead-policy analysis, results suggest at least 3 years of anticipatory effects on domestic subsidies.     

Accounting for United States Household Income Inequality Trends: The Changing Importance of Household Structure and Male and Female Labor Earnings Inequality

Using a shift‐share analysis on March CPS data, this paper estimates the degree to which changes in labor earnings, employment, and marriage patterns account for household income inequality growth in the United States since 1979. The factors contributing to the rapid rise in income inequality in the 1980s differ substantially from those contributing to its slower increase since that time. Unlike findings for the 1980s when changes in the correlation of spouses' earnings accounted for income inequality growth, this factor is no longer a major contributor toward its continued increase. Additionally, the 2000s business cycle is the first full business cycle in at least 30 years where changes in earnings of male household heads accounted for declines in income inequality. Instead, the continued growth in income inequality in the 2000s was accounted for primarily by increases in female earnings inequality and declines in both male and female employment.     

Reference Point Theory and Pursuit of Deals

Target and bidder reference points have separate and joint effects on merger deals. A firm whose stock price is more distant from its 52‐week high reference point is less likely to attract bids but has a greater likelihood of being acquired by its own managers (vs unaffiliated bidders). Firm propensity to submit a bid increases if its prevailing stock price is closer to its 52‐week high. When both parties’ reference points are close to their current stock prices, they are more willing to complete a deal. Hostile deals result when the bidder's stock price is closer to its reference point.     

退耕农户长期生计分析

以陕西、青海两省4个县15个村400个退耕农户为研究对象,通过20年的成本效益分析,探讨了退耕还林对农户生计的长期影响,预测了退耕后林草产品的产出、价格和农产品产量,分析了样本农户退耕前后在土地利用、种植结构、收入和成本结构等方面的变化,对林草产品价格、退耕补助、毁林复耕等因素进行了敏感性分析。结果表明:在预测的价格和产出水平上,退耕提高了样本农户的收入水平。从长期看,退耕农户面临自然、技术和市场风险。要实现中国政府的生态建设目标,决策者应关注退耕农户尤其是退耕地比例高的农户的长期生计。     

A new perspective on entrepreneurial regions: linking cultural identity with latent and manifest entrepreneurship

What are the entrepreneurial places in the USA? Although seminal theorizing on the determinants of entrepreneurship gives culture a unique and important role, systematic empirical evidence linking the distinct cultural identity of regions to their local entrepreneurial spirit and vitality is still scarce. This study offers a first, systematic overview on the nexus between regional cultural identity and latent and manifest entrepreneurship across the USA. To directly assess regional cultural identity, we apply the American Nations and Patchwork Community Types approaches and explore in which way these distinct spatially based cultural regions are reflected by significant differences in entrepreneurial activity and underlying biologically based propensities. We combine annual entrepreneurship rates at the county level with personality data collected in a large-scale, Internet-based study of 3,457,270 US residents. The findings suggest that entrepreneurship culture reflects the dynamic interplay between the region’s cultural identity and its latent and manifest entrepreneurship.     

Accounting Quality,Liquidity Risk,and Post‐Earnings‐Announcement Drift

Recent microstructure research finds that liquidity risk, in particular its information component, plays an important role in explaining the post‐earnings‐announcement drift (PEAD). We decompose liquidity risk into an accounting‐associated component and a nonaccounting‐associated component and examine their relative importance in explaining PEAD. Our research is motivated by recent findings that liquidity risk is a systematic risk and earnings quality is negatively associated with liquidity risk. We find that the accounting‐associated component is more strongly related to PEAD returns than is its nonaccounting‐associated counterpart. Further analyses reveal that the relation between accounting‐associated liquidity risk and PEAD returns is weaker for firms with greater analyst following. We also find that in a significant market downturn, the relation between accounting‐associated liquidity risk and PEAD returns becomes more pronounced. Our study is the first to document a liquidity risk‐based role of accounting quality in explaining the PEAD phenomenon. It parses out the PEAD risk premia associated with accounting versus nonaccounting sources and, by so doing, sheds light on the role of accounting quality in shaping the liquidity risk‐PEAD returns relation.     

JobKeeper: An Initial Assessment

We present details of the design and implementation of the 2020–2021 JobKeeper program and review the literature on its impacts. JobKeeper stimulated the macroeconomy and restrained job loss in the downturn. But because the program was not narrowly targeted, the cost per job saved was high and the impact most likely regressive. However, it would not have been possible to devise and implement a more targeted program in the available time, and as it was, JobKeeper was arguably implemented later than needed for maximum effectiveness. We therefore recommend that Australia consider establishing a short-time work program for use in future recessions.     

Introduction

This article introduces the Policy Forum. It contains: (i) a brief overview of the fiscal policies introduced to deal with COVID-19 and their impact on Australia's economic performance; (ii) summaries of the articles in the Forum; and (iii) suggested learnings for policymaking in future crises.     

Can rewards induce corresponding forms of theft? Introducing the reward-theft parity effect

Rewards are reinforcement mechanisms that organizations use to shape desirable employee behaviors. However, rewards may also have unintended consequences, such as building expectations for receiving extra benefits and weakening employee barriers to unethical acts. This article investigates the dark side of the reward–behavior association, and exploring what is referred to as the reward–theft parity effect (RTPE). The authors hypothesize that receiving rewards induces a corresponding type of theft. In Study 1, survey results (n = 634) show initial support for the RTPE between rewards and same-category theft, and that perceptions of procedural justice attenuate this association. Study 2 involved a 2 (reward) × 2 (theft opportunity) between-subjects experimental design (n = 300) and provides further support for the RTPE by revealing greater theft under a reward–theft parity condition than under a reward–theft disparity condition. Study 3 replicates these findings in a field experiment (n = 285) and finds that the RTPE is exacerbated when the reward–behavior task is perceived as unjust. Collectively, these findings provide new theoretical insights while also giving managers a more complete understanding of the dark side of behavioral reinforcement mechanisms.     

The Matthew effect,research productivity,and the dynamic allocation of NIH grants

Funding is important for research. However, research funding may suffer from the Matthew effect: the more researchers already have, the more they will be given. I develop an empirical framework to study how the National Institutes of Health (NIH) could allocate funding in a dynamically optimal manner by balancing funds between young and veteran principal investigators (PIs). I find that the discount factor that rationalizes NIH's funding behavior is about 0.75, implying it may underfund young PIs. Moreover, a temporary funding cut would have long-lasting effects on overall research output through its adverse impact on investment in young PIs.