Connected and autonomous vehicle injury loss events: Potential risk and actuarial considerations for primary insurers

The introduction of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) to the road transport ecosystem will change the manner of collisions. CAVs are expected to optimize the safety of road users and the wider environment, while alleviating traffic congestion and maximizing occupant comfort. The net result is a reduction in the frequency of motor vehicle collisions, and a reduction in the number of injuries currently seen as “preventable.” A changing risk ecosystem will introduce new challenges and opportunities for primary insurers. Prior studies have highlighted the economic benefit provided by reductions in the frequency of hazardous events. This economic benefit, however, will be offset by the economic detriment incurred by emerging risks and the increased scrutiny placed on existing risks. We posit four plausible scenarios detailing how an introduction of these technologies could result in a larger relative rate of injury claims currently characterized as tail‐risk events. In such a scenario, the culmination of these losses will present as a second “hump” in actuarial loss models. We discuss how CAV risk factors and traffic dynamics may combine to make a second “hump” a plausible reality, and discuss a number of opportunities that may arise for primary insurers from a changing road environment.     

Analyst Following and Market Liquidity*

This paper investigates the relation between analyst characteristics (number of analysts following a firm and their forecast dispersion) and market liquidity characteristics (bid‐ask spreads and depths and the adverse‐selection component of the spread). Prior research has found contradictory results on the relation between analyst following and market liquidity and has offered differing theories on how analysts affect liquidity. While prior research has posited analysts as proxies for privately informed trade or as signals of information asymmetry, I hypothesize that analysts provide public information, implying that analyst following (forecast dispersion) should have a positive (negative) association with liquidity. Cross‐sectional simultaneous estimations provide support for this hypothesis. The results are both statistically significant and economically important. Granger causality tests indicate that analyst characteristics lead market liquidity characteristics. These results clarify the role of analysts in providing information to financial markets and highlight benefits of increased analyst following.     

Attitudes and Work Motivation of Subgroups of Seasonal Hotel Workers

Labour turnover is a strong feature of of hotels in the UK, especially in the seasonal seaside sector. However, the link between job mobility and job satisfaction is complex and cannot be adequately explained by ‘traditional’ theories of motivation. In an attempt to account for the impact of individual worker differences on job attitudes, Hackman and Oldham's [1974, 1980] job diagnostic survey was distributed to 163 hotel workers. The results suggest that hotel workers can be divided into subgroups, characterised by both residential status and work preference. Furthermore, these additional dimensions explain work attitudes and motivation more effectively than Hackman and Oldham's original ‘growth need strength’ dimension.     

数据集成战略地位日益凸显

IT为全球经济增长和丰富人们的生活体验作出了十分重要的贡献，而软件和信息服务业在IT行业发展中举足轻重。现在，软件和信息服务业正以前所未有的速度向经济与社会生活的各个方面渗透。那么，3年、5年或10年后，软件行业将会怎样？全球领先的企业数据集成软件独立供应商Informatica公司主席兼首席执行官Sohaib Abbasi认为：     

Factory Innovations And Management Machinations: The Productive And Repressive Relations of Power

This article explores how power is exercised by managers in both 'repressive' ways so as to chase out or deny alternative interests/subjectivities and in ways which are 'productive' of the subjectivity of those they employ and indeed their own subjectivity. Rather than necessarily an intention of managers, exercising power in productive and repressive ways, is a condition and consequence of the strategies they deploy. Nonetheless, the concern here is to question the totalizing effects of power whether in relation to management strategy, total quality management, business process reengineering or culture change. Through exploring innovation in an established automobile manufacturing company, it is argued that a necessary though not sufficient condition of such a prospect, is that managers reconstitute themselves. It is demonstrated that such a reconstitution is problematic when one considers managers as thinking, social beings, situated in a historical context of power and inequality rather than structural automatons or agents that are free of power.     

Ex Ante Hedging Effectiveness of UK Stock Index Futures Contracts: Evidence for the FTSE 100 and FTSE Mid 250 Contracts

Ex ante hedging effectiveness of the FTSE 100 and FTSE Mid 250 index futures contracts is examined for a range of portfolios, consisting of stock market indexes and professionally managed portfolios (investment trust companies). Previous studies which focused on ex post hedging performance using spot portfolios that mirror market indexes are shown to overstate the risk reduction potential of index futures. Although ex ante hedge ratios are found to be characterised by intertemporal instability, ex ante hedging performance of direct hedges and cross hedges approaches that of the ex post benchmark when hedge ratios are estimated using a sufficient window size.     

A GIS-based toolkit for route choice analysis

This paper develops and applies the route choice analysis (RCA) toolkit. This GIS-based toolkit generates a suite of over 40 variables describing route characteristics such as distance, travel time, speed statistics, number of intersections, number of turns, number of stop signs/stop lights, and a measure of route circuity, to name a few. The input to the toolkit is one or more routes, which can be obtained from global positioning system (GPS) data or some other means (e.g., shortest path). While the toolkit is designed to support route choice modeling by generating variables that have been tested in previous modeling efforts, we demonstrate its utility by testing the hypothesis that workers choose routes to minimize either travel time or distance between home and work. A GPS-enhanced data set of 237 observed routes for home-to-work trips collected for auto drivers in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada is used in our analysis. We find that the null hypothesis is refuted - that is, a comparison of observed routes to their shortest-path alternatives based on time and distance via inferential statistics indicates that observed routes are significantly longer compared to their alternatives. This finding suggests that workers may choose routes based on other route attributes. The attributes generated by the RCA toolkit for observed, shortest time, and shortest distance routes are compared and significant differences are noted.     

Colliding Interests – Age as an Automobile Insurance Rating Variable: Equitable Rate-Making or Unfair Discrimination?

Many private business relationships are increasingly characterized by claims that certain actions should not be permitted since particular right claims are involved. Such claims should be taken seriously, but are they always ethically legitimate? This paper analyzes one context, the use of age as a rating variable in the pricing of automobile insurance, where such claims are made. By identifying, evaluating and assessing the relevant basis for the differentiation, actuarial equity, it is concluded that there is an ethical basis for such a practice. The analysis also provides an equivalent means for considering other such analogous claims where actuarial equity is involved.     

An Empirical Investigation of the Effect of CFO Power on Disclosure Quality

We examine the association between chief financial officer (CFO) power and disclosure quality, measured using financial statement disaggregation disclosure and analyst forecast disclosure. Empirically, we validate that CFO power, measured by multiple dimensions, is positively associated with firms’ disclosure quality. We also find that this positive association between CFO power and disclosure quality is stronger when firms exhibit higher governance monitoring and accounting quality. Further analysis shows that our main results hold across multiple disclosure quality tests. Our findings are robust to addressing endogeneity issues using two-stage least squares, Heckman selection bias, and propensity score matching analyses. The results highlight the importance of CFO power for the accounting reporting process and decision-making.     

Near-efficient equilibria in contribution-based competitive grouping

We examine theoretically and experimentally how competitive contribution-based group formation affects incentives to free-ride. We introduce a new formal model of social production, called a “Group-based Meritocracy Mechanism” (GBM), which extends the single-group-level analysis of a Voluntary Contribution Mechanism (VCM) to multiple groups. In a GBM individuals are ranked according to their group contributions. Based on this ranking, participants are then partitioned into equal-sized groups. Members of each group share their collective output equally amongst themselves according to a VCM payoff function. The GBM has two pure-strategy Nash equilibria. One is non-contribution by all; this equilibrium thus coincides with the VCM's equilibrium. The second equilibrium is close to Pareto optimal. It is asymmetric and quite complex from the viewpoint of experimental subjects, yet subjects tacitly coordinate this equilibrium reliably and precisely. Extensions of the basic GBM model to incorporate various features of naturally occurring group formation are suggested in the conclusion.