Preparing for the millennium : Reflections on the need for futures education

What does education for a just and sustainable future look like and how might it be implemented in the classroom? This article is an introduction to the work of one particular curriculum project in the UK which is working with teachers on this issue. First, the broader educational context is described both in terms of the author's personal and professional interests and in relation to existing good practice in global education. Attention is then drawn to various formative influences on the project's design, both from futures education and from the futures field more generally. Finally, the aims of the project are outlined together with details of current work in progress.     

Longevity and Life‐cycle Savings*

We add health and longevity to a standard model of life‐cycle saving and show that, under plausible assumptions, increases in life expectancy lead to higher savings rates at every age, even when retirement is endogenous. In a stationary population these higher savings rates are offset by increased old age dependency, but during the disequilibrium phase, when longevity is rising, the effect on aggregate savings rates can be substantial. We find empirical support for this effect using a cross‐country panel of national savings rates.     

Industry Differences in the Effect of Export Market Entry: Learning by Exporting?

An extensive evidence base affirms the importance of sunk costs and firm heterogeneity to exporting. Only higher productivity firms can profitably cover sunk costs and enter export markets. This is the standard explanation for the regularity with which econometric analyses report that exporters are more productive than non-exporters. But what happens to their productivity trajectory once they have entered? Some theory points to the possibility of a further productivity boost, attributable to the effects of learning and competition. We investigate whether this is because the potential for a post-entry boost depends upon how exposed to competition the firm is. We find that industry differences are an important marker for determining whether learning effects boost productivity after export market entry.     

An Examination of the Factors that Influence Whether Newcomers Protect or Share Secrets of their Former Employers*

abstract This research investigated the factors that influence a decision that is often faced by employees who have made a transition from one organization to another: the decision about whether to protect secrets of their former employer or to share them with their new co‐workers. A total of 111 employees from two high‐tech companies participated in interviews. Their comments were analysed and, based on both relevant literature and the results of that analysis, a theory of the factors that influence newcomers' protect vs. share decisions was developed. According to that theory, newcomers first decide whether or not information is a trade secret of their former employer by considering (1) whether the information is part of their own knowledge, and (2) whether the information is publicly available, general, and negative (about something that did not work). If newcomers decide the information is a trade secret, they then evaluate (1) the degree to which their obligations are biased towards their former or new employer, and (2) the degree to which they identify more strongly with their former or new employer. Newcomers whose obligations and identifications are biased towards a new employer are more likely to share secrets. If these obligations and identifications are balanced, newcomers may share information in a way that allows them to believe they are fulfilling their responsibilities to both their former and their new employers.     

Changing the U.S. Sugar Program into a Standard Crop Program: Consequences under the North American Free Trade Agreement and Doha

We analyze the impact of continuing the existing U.S. sugar program, replacing it with a standard program, and implementing the standard program with multilateral trade liberalization. Under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), duty-free sugar imports from Mexico could undermine the program's ability to operate on a "no-cost" basis to taxpayers as large public stocks of sugar could accumulate. The replacement of the current sugar program by one similar to other major U.S. crop programs would solve the problem of potential stock accumulation, accommodate further trade liberalization under a new WTO and future bilateral trade agreements, but would induce significant fiscal outlays through direct payments.     

Indivisibilities and development timing the shopping-center problem

The subject of this paper is the timing and efficiency of development decisions in urban or regional markets for establishments like shopping centers, hotels, and commercial office buildings where indivisibilities are important. It presents a model of the land development process that incorporates indivisibilities. A non-optimality theorem is proved to confirm that market-controlled development timing is not optimal, and that sometimes the market undersupplies indivisible establishments once a terminal state is reached. Further, during the period of development the market may oversupply establishments for intervals of time. In contrast to static analysis, indivisibilities do not allow developers to earn positive profits. These are competed away by foresighted, sequential development timing.     

Employee representation on health and safety and European Works Councils

Three hundred and eighty‐six voluntary agreements on European Works Councils are examined for material that might support their role in transnational consultation on health and safety in Europe. A significant percentage do indeed support the potential development of consultation on health and safety at this level, both substantively and with representation on health and safety at enterprise level. However the support is uneven and in a number of areas it is relatively weak.     

Facing the Age Wave and Economic Policy: Fixing Public Pension Systems with Healthcare in the Wings*

There are two overriding problems faced by ageing societies. One is the financing of public pension (social security in US terms) programmes. The other is paying for healthcare. This paper considers the healthcare issue briefly, emphasising that the issue arises primarily because of advances in medical technology. Better medical technology will improve healthcare in the future, but more advanced technologies also cost more. The focus of the rest of the paper is on the public pension problem. The emphasis is on the early retirement incentives inherent in the provisions of most public pension programmes around the world, the reduction in the labour force participation of older people caused by these incentives, and the large fiscal implication of the inducement of older people to leave the labour force. These results are based on the Gruber–Wise ongoing international social security comparison project.