Transformational Growth in the 1990s: Government,Finance and High-tech

Our aim is to understand how the process of transformational growth during the 1990s shaped the boom and bust of the New Economy. From the debate on new technologies and productivity growth, we move on to consider the questions raised by technological developments of the 1990s. Our focus is on the three-way relationship between the development of information and communications technologies, structural change and economic growth, as the key determinants of the cycle of expansion. This brings to the fore the effects of private investment driven by high-technology but we also need to consider the role played by finance and macro policy, and, in particular, the government budget.     

Growth,Normal Capacity Utilization and the Long-Run Saving Ratio: A Comment

In a recent paper Attilio Trezzini presents an explanation of the saving ratio that does not rely on normal capacity utilization positions. Trezzini instead focuses on the fluctuations of consumption and investment. But that very focus, I argue, requires a different kind of approach. Once the traditional theory of saving is discarded, the ‘indeterminacy’ of the saving ratio opens the way to an analysis of the evolution of consumption, and of how that evolution affects aggregate demand. The generation and evolution of autonomous demand are matters of obvious relevance to the classical Keynesian approach to the analysis of growth. The present comment takes James Duesenberry’s criticism of demand theory as the starting point for an examination of the evolving standard of consumption and autonomous (‘innovative’) investment, therefore addressing directly the investment–consumption relationship. There are of course a number of complicated questions involved and they have not yet been satisfactorily analysed. They are part of the necessary task of articulating a theory of consumption consistent with demand-led growth and forward-looking investment decisions.     

Fare elasticities of demand for direct and indirect flights in sub-Saharan Africa

This article examines the different demands for direct and indirect flights within sub-Saharan Africa. It develops both a simple reduced form model and a more refined two equation simultaneously system to examine bookings and fares on the major air transportation corridors. Using panel data, this allows estimation of the different fare elasticities of demand for direct and indirect services between the continents’ major cities as well as assessing the respective merits of the two models used.     

Consequences of Economic Partnership Agreements between East and Southern African Countries and the EU for Inter- and Intra-regional Integration

Abstract

The European Union is currently negotiating Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with six African, Caribbean and Pacific country groupings, aiming at establishing mutual free trade. This paper empirically assesses the impact of the EPAs on trade flows and government revenues for 22 East and Southern African countries and discusses implications for intra-regional integration. The results indicate that while moderate trade effects can be expected, relatively large budget effects are likely to occur in a number of these countries, exposing them to considerable structural and financial adjustment requirements. In addition, EPAs would strengthen the need to consolidate overlapping intra-regional integration schemes.     

Are regional systems greening the economy? Local spillovers,green innovations and firms’ economic performances

The adoption and diffusion of environmental innovations (EIs) is crucial to greening the economy and achieving win–win environmental/economic gains. A large and increasing literature has focused on the levers underlying EIs that are external to the firm, such as stakeholder and policy pressures. Little attention, however, has been devoted to the possible role of local spillovers of a sector/geographical nature as a factor that correlates with EIs and economic performances. A rich data set that covers the innovative activities and economic performances of firms in the Emilia-Romagna region in Italy, an area dense in manufacturing districts, is analysed. EIs’ drivers and effects on firms’ performance are investigated through a two-step procedure. First, we examine the relevance of spatial levers, namely, whether high rates of eco-innovators in a given local area induce the adoption of EIs in firms located in the same local area. The role of the ‘agglomeration lever’ turns out to be fairly local in nature: we find that spillovers are significantly inducing innovation within municipal boundaries. Second, we test whether EIs adoptions have significantly increased firms’ economic performances and find that some firms’ productivity performances are positively related to EI adoption.     

巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接绩效评价研究

在全面打赢脱贫攻坚战后,如何进一步巩固拓展脱贫攻坚取得的成果、有效衔接乡村振兴,成为学界关注的重要内容。构建巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接绩效评价体系,是有力推进二者衔接的重要基础。本研究以乡村振兴战略规划目标为依据,结合巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果相关要求及接续发展时期特点,以产业兴旺、生态宜居、乡风文明、治理有效、生活富裕等5个一级指标,农业生产条件等16个二级指标和耕地保有率等38个三级指标构建评价指标体系,并综合运用层次分析、聚类分析和模糊评价相结合的方法构建评估模型,以期为巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果与乡村振兴接续发展成效的评价研究提供借鉴。     

Scope and scale economies in multi-utilities: evidence from gas,water and electricity combinations

Within the recent debate on liberalization of local public services, the paper investigates the cost properties of a sample of Italian public utilities providing in combination gas, water and electricity. The estimates from a Composite Cost Function econometric model (Pulley and Braunstein, 1992 Pulley, LB and Braunstein, YM. 1992. A composite cost function for multiproduct firms with an application to economies of scope in banking. Review of Economics and Statistics, 74: 221–30.  ) are compared with the ones coming from other traditional functional forms such as the Standard Translog, the Generalized Translog, and the Separable Quadratic. The results highlight the presence of global scope and scale economies only for multi-utilities with output levels lower than the ones characterizing the ‘median’ firm. This indicates that relatively small specialized firms would benefit from cost reductions by evolving into multi-utilities providing similar network services such as gas, water and electricity. However, for larger-scale utilities the hypothesis of null cost advantages is not rejected. Thus, it is possible that the recent diversification waves of leading companies are explained by factors other than cost synergies, so that the welfare gains that can be reasonably expected from such examples of horizontal integration, if any, are likely to be very low.     

Fiscal Convergence, Business Cycle Volatility, and Growth

This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal convergence on business cycle volatility and growth. Using a panel of 11 EMU and 21 OECD countries and 40 years of data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have smoother business cycles. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systematically associated with smoother business cycles. We also find evidence that reduced business cycle volatility through higher fiscal convergence stimulates growth. Our empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.