Falling Wage Shares in Europe and the United States: How Important is Aggregation Bias?

This paper sheds light on the importance of aggregation bias in the analysis of wage shares developments over time and across countries. We focus on five European countries and the United States and show that the trend decline in the aggregate wage share observed in these countries over much of the 1980s and 1990s partly reflects changes in the sectoral composition of the economy. The application of a fixed-weight aggregation method changes the profile of the observed wage share in a significant way: in particular there is no longer sign of an overshooting of the wage share levels of the early-1970s. Error-correction wage equations based on the adjusted wage shares generally have a better regression fit and show long-run elasticities of real wages to unemployment that vary less across countries and are substantially lower than those obtained with observed shares.     

Consequences of Economic Partnership Agreements between East and Southern African Countries and the EU for Inter- and Intra-regional Integration

Abstract

The European Union is currently negotiating Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with six African, Caribbean and Pacific country groupings, aiming at establishing mutual free trade. This paper empirically assesses the impact of the EPAs on trade flows and government revenues for 22 East and Southern African countries and discusses implications for intra-regional integration. The results indicate that while moderate trade effects can be expected, relatively large budget effects are likely to occur in a number of these countries, exposing them to considerable structural and financial adjustment requirements. In addition, EPAs would strengthen the need to consolidate overlapping intra-regional integration schemes.     

Structural and Cyclical Factors behind Current Account Balances

Global external imbalances widened persistently over the last several years and have narrowed abruptly over the course of the financial crisis. Understanding the extent to which structural or cyclical factors may have driven these patterns is important to assess the likely evolution of global imbalances going forward, as well as the potential adjustment that can be achieved through changes in policy. This paper assesses the link between structural and cyclical factors and current account balances using a panel of 94 countries from 1973 to 2008. We find that the medium‐term evolution of global external imbalances can be related in large part to structural factors including cross‐country differences in demographics, fiscal deficits, oil dependency and intensity, stage of economic development, financial market development, and institutional quality. Part of the narrowing in current account balances since the financial crisis appears to be related to various cyclical factors including changes in output growth, oil prices, and exchange rates, and may be expected to reverse alongside the economic recovery.     

Economic freedom in the long run: evidence from OECD countries (1850–2007)

This article presents historical indices for the main dimensions of economic freedom and an aggregate index for the developed countries of today, specifically pre‐1994 OECD members. Economic liberty expanded over the last century‐and‐a‐half, reaching more than two‐thirds of its possible maximum. However, its evolution has been far from linear. After a substantial improvement from the mid‐nineteenth century, the First World War brought a major setback. The postwar recovery up to 1929 was followed by a dramatic decline in the 1930s. Significant progress took place during the 1950s but fell short of the pre‐First World War peak. After a period of stagnation, steady expansion since the early 1980s has resulted in the highest levels of economic liberty of the last two centuries. Each of the main dimensions of economic freedom exhibited a distinctive trend and its contribution to the aggregate index varied over time. Overall, improved property rights provided the main contribution to the long‐run advancement of economic liberty.     

政府公共服务的企业化改革

传统政府治理中的一个误区是忽视服务提供和服务主体之间的区别，进而错误地认为如果政府放弃了服务生产者的功能，它自然就放弃了服务提供者的角色。政府的自信甚至自负导致公共物品垄断性的直接生产模式，它所伴随的高成本，低效率，质量不尽人意和回应性的缺乏，不仅损坏了公众对政府的信任，而且无端耗费了公共资源，导致普遍的低效。     

The surprising benefits of a parallel universe

Suppose that the successful completion of a project requires performing n tasks, each of which has a probability of success p. The paper establishes under what conditions it may be profitable to engage in parallel multi‐tasking, i.e. tackling each task by following two independent routes. It is found that for ?n>1 parallel multi‐tasking is profitable for a wide range of parameters when costs are linear and is always profitable for convex costs. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

HEATH–JARROW–MORTON INTEREST RATE DYNAMICS AND APPROXIMATELY CONSISTENT FORWARD RATE CURVES

We study a finite-dimensional approach to the Heath–Jarrow–Morton model for interest rate and introduce a notion of approximate consistency for a family of functions in a deterministic and stochastic framework. This amounts to asking the decrease of the minimum distance in least squares sense. We start from a general linearly parameterized set of functions and extend the theory to a nonlinear Nelson–Siegel family. Necessary and sufficient condition to have approximately consistency are given as well as a criterion of stability for the approximation.     

Internationalisation,Innovation and Productivity: How Do Firms Differ in Italy?

This paper addresses the issue of intra‐industry heterogeneity and internationalisation. We show that, after controlling for sector, location, firm age and size, Italian manufacturing companies exhibit different economic and innovative performance according to their involvement in foreign activities. In particular, exporters show intermediate innovative performance between non‐internationalised firms and those carrying out foreign production. Multinationals with a lower commitment to foreign markets, i.e. with non‐manufacturing activities abroad only, exhibit a higher productivity than exporters but they do not appear to innovate more than the latter. Heterogeneity in productivity is robust to controlling for innovation inputs and outputs, suggesting that the difference in economic performance cannot be entirely attributed to different innovative activities, and that the involvement in international operations can be a distinct channel of knowledge accumulation.     

Is Government Expenditure Volatility Harmful for Growth? A Cross‐Country Analysis*

The aim of the paper is to analyse the relationship between government expenditure volatility and long‐run growth. Using cross‐country panel data from 1970 to 2000, the paper finds that countries with higher government expenditure business‐cycle volatility have lower growth, even after controlling for other country‐specific growth correlates such as investment, government expenditure, human capital, population growth and output volatility. This relation is robust to different measures of business cycles. Moreover, considering different subsamples, the paper finds that while government volatility significantly affects long‐run growth for developing countries, it has a small effect for OECD countries.     

Does One Law Fit All? Cross-Country Evidence on Okun’s Law

Open Economies Review - This paper compares the performance of Okun’s Law in advanced and developing economies. On average, the Okun coefficient—which measures the short-run...