Possible External Shocks to Asia in 2001: How Vulnerable Are the Regional Economies?

In 2001, threats of a U.S. economic slowdown, a moderation of economic growth in the EU, sharp deceleration of the global electronics cycle, and high oil prices could be some of the potential external shocks clouding Asia's economic outlook. This article analyzes these external shocks and assesses which Asian economies are most (or least) vulnerable to these exogenous shocks. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Solvency II,asset liability management,and the European bond market – theory and empirical evidence

It is already foreseeable that Solvency II will tie capital requirements to a very comprehensive risk definition including underwriting and market risks. The new regulatory framework will demand more sophisticated tools to detect interest rate risks on both sides of the balance sheet in an integrated approach. Efforts by life insurers to level these risks could lead to an increased demand for long term fixed income securities. At this point the question arises if this industry wide change in asset demand will have or already has had an impact on prices of long-term bonds and the yield curve in the Euro-Zone?     

Umsetzungsbarrieren bei Produktinnovationen: Führt der „Weg des geringsten Widerstands“ zum Innovationserfolg?

Welche Innovationsbarrieren gef?hrden die Umsetzung kreativer Ideen in neue Produkte? Was bedeuten Umsetzungsbarrieren für den Erfolg eines Innovationsprozesses? Welche Strategien des Innovationsmanagements bew?hren sich? Mit Daten von 408 Produktinnovationsprozessen aus Technologiebranchen werden diese Zusammenh?nge für vier Innovationstypen vergleichend analysiert: Umsetzungsbarrieren in den Phasen Forschung & Entwicklung, Produktion und Markteinführung treten, insbesondere bei hohem Neuheitsgrad, nahezu immer auf. Der Intensit?t dieser Barrieren kommt jedoch nur geringe Erkl?rungskraft für den Innovationserfolg zu. Offensichtlich führen nicht nur „Wege des geringsten Widerstands“ zum Erfolg. Die Befunde zeigen, dass eine frühzeitige Integration von Akteuren und Funktionen dazu beitragen kann, Innovationserfolge auch „über Barrieren“ zu erreichen.     

Influence Diagrams for Causal Modelling and Inference

We consider a variety of ways in which probabilistic and causal models can be represented in graphical form. By adding nodes to our graphs to represent parameters, decision, etc ., we obtain a generalisation of influence diagrams that supports meaningful causal modelling and inference, and only requires concepts and methods that are already standard in the purely probabilistic case. We relate our representations to others, particularly functional models, and present arguments and examples in favour of their superiority.     

Die Zukunft der Pflegeversicherung in Deutschland: Umlage und Kapitaldeckung

Due to the dramatic ageing of the population, the German welfare state expects enormous challenges in the decades until 2060: either the contribution rates have to be increased by a full 20 percentage points, or the benefits must be cut by one-third – relative to their present growth path. Moreover, even in the otherwise copious German welfare state, the system of publicly financed long-term care benefits is characterized by a considerable coverage gap. In this paper, we analyze past and current reforms of the German financing system for LTC expenditures, and we argue that the coverage gap should be reduced by supplementing the welfare state with an element of mandatory funding. The financial crisis should not induce policy makers to default on this necessary financing reform.     

Einzelbesprechungen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Innovation source,advancement stage and company stock returns

The purpose of this paper was to measure the short- and long-term impact of innovation announcements on the stock returns of service companies. In order to study the predictors of the abnormal stock returns, the study takes the adoption and diffusion theory as its conceptual background. The research was based on an event study and buy-and-hold methods. It encompassed 398 announcements released for 121 companies in EU member states between February 2011 and December 2016. The study deepens the dialogue on the role of the source of innovation and its advancement stage. It indicates a positive market reaction to high innovation advancement stage announcements in comparison to low advancement stage ones. Furthermore, it suggests a positive market reaction to in-house development in comparison to collaborative development and copying. Finally, the research signals that the innovation advancement stage complements its source by clarifying its relationship with abnormal market value changes.