A Conversation with James O. Ramsay

Jim Ramsay was born on September 5, 1942, in Prince George, British Columbia. He pursued undergraduate studies at the University of Alberta, where he completed a BEd in 1964 with a major in English and a minor in mathematics. He then specialized in statistics and psychometry, earning a PhD in psychology from Princeton University in 1966. After holding a temporary lectureship in the Department of Psychology at University College London for one year, he joined the Department of Psychology at McGill University, where he rose through the academic ranks. He was chair of his department from 1986 to 1989 and spent sabbatical leaves in Cambridge, Grenoble, and Toulouse. He was named professor emeritus upon his retirement in 2007. Jim is the author of four influential books and over 100 peer‐reviewed articles in statistical and psychometric journals. He developed much of the statistical theory behind multidimensional scaling and is widely recognized as the founder of functional data analysis. Three of his papers were read to the Royal Statistical Society, and another won The Canadian Journal of Statistics 2000 Best Paper Award. The Statistical Society of Canada (SSC) awarded him a Gold Medal for research in 1998 and an honorary membership in 2012. Jim was president of the Psychometric Society in 1981–82 and president of the SSC in 2002–03. The following conversation took place at Jim's home in Ottawa, Ontario, on March 14 and April 4, 2012.     

Shifts in Portfolio Preferences of International Investors: An Application to Sovereign Wealth Funds

We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of a shift in portfolio preferences of foreign investors. The model has two countries and two asset classes (equities and bonds). It is characterized by imperfect substitutability between assets and allows for endogenous adjustment in interest rates and asset prices. To illustrate the mechanics of the model, we calibrate it to analyze a transfer of reserves from central banks to sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). We look separately at two diversification paths: a shift away from dollar assets (path 1), and a shift away from US bonds to US equities (path 2). In path 1, the dollar depreciates and US net debt falls on impact and increases in the long run. In path 2, the dollar depreciates and US net debt increases in the long run.     

Economics and the treatment of AIDS: a preliminary assessment

This paper applied cost-effectiveness analysis to the use of drug therapy in the treatment of AIDS. The empirical approach adopted overcame the facts that the samples of patients had varying clinical prognoses, had variable entry dates into the samples and, because AIDS is a terminal disease, had variable exit dates. Holding these variables constant, administration of the drug AZT proved to be a less costly alternative than other existing palliatives for AIDS. The sub-sample of patients treated with AZT had lower hospitalization costs, lower caring costs and sufferers had an increased ability to continue to participate for longer as economically active members of society.     

Competition Policy as Strategic Trade with Differentiated Products

The paper analyzes how countries use competition policy as a tool for strategic trade. In the model, two countries export to a third country. Each exporting country is endowed with a set of differentiated products. Each government chooses the number of exporters for its country and the products that each exporter sells in the first period, and a tax policy in the second period. Firms choose prices or quantities independently in the third period. In the unique subgame‐perfect equilibrium, both countries group all their products within a single firm—the “national champion policy.” We study the implication of different assumptions about the timing of the game.     

THE 'BROKEN WINDOWS' THEORY AND THE NEW YORK EXPERIENCE RECONSIDERED

The undeniable success of order-maintenance policing (also community policing or broken windows policing) is despite the deficiency in the theory which propelled the practice into policy: Wilson and Kelling's broken windows theory. We discuss what is wrong with the theory and why it nevertheless works when put into practice.     

May’s theorem in an infinite setting

We generalize May’s theorem to an infinite setting, preserving the elementary character of the original theorem. We define voting scenarios and generalized voting scenarios, and prove appropriate versions of May’s theorem. The case of generalized voting scenarios specialized to a countably infinite set of voters and the collections of all coalitions that have asymptotic density, shows that majority rule is the only aggregation rule that satisfies neutrality, irrelevance of null coalitions, anonymity, and positive responsiveness.     

A LETTER TO THE AUTHOR

Effective communication of capital investment proposals can be critically important to an engineer's professional development. Engineers frequently have difficulty developing this effective communication, however, primarily because they lack a clear understanding of the corporate decision-makers' commercial perspective and related informational needs. The decision-makers' perspective and the capital budgeting process are explored and several communication strategies are suggested to assist the engineer in more effectively presenting his capital investment proposals. The value of communication technique and the importance of recognizing and dealing effectively with certain psycho-social factors in inter-personal communication are briefly described.     

Calculation of policy-values for different rates of interest

Abstract

If we calculate the Policy-Values of a Whole Life Assurance for a given Age at Entry and a given Duration, but for several equidistant rates of interest, we find that the proportion of two successive values is very nearly constant. This fact is illustrated by Tables 1 a and 1 b, giving certain Policy Values on the basis H^M and A 24–29 respectively, for the rates of 3, 4, 5 and 6 % of interest. Tables 2 a and 2 b show, that the same applies, if to a smaller degree, to Endowment Assurances.     

Contents of PMM,Volume 29 (2009)

This article appraises the recent UK quantitative easing (QE) monetary experiment. From March 2009 to February 2010, the Bank of England spent £200 billion on gilts and corporate bonds. This experiment represents, as a proportion of GDP, the most ambitious monetary policy ‘mission’ in history. Using several indicators to examine the impact of QE, our analysis leads to a conclusion which, metaphorically, is akin to that ascribed to the 1970 Apollo 13 Moon mission: a ‘successful failure’.