How Should the Allocation of Resources Adjust to the Baby Bust?

We analyze the impact of a drop in fertility on the optimal allocation of resources in an overlapping generations economy where old workers care about leisure. We also characterize optimal dynamics and study the decentralization of the optimum by means of inter‐generational transfers and/or public debt. We conclude that the policy recommendations of postponing retirement is fragile and depend on preferences and technologies. Also, even when the optimal adjustment of public debt goes into the expected direction in the long run—i.e., public debt should decrease—this may not be the case during the transition.     

均衡性转移支付、公共支出结构与经济高质量发展

本文首先从理论层面系统阐述均衡性转移支付、公共支出结构与经济增长质量三者之间的多重作用机制。其次立足"五大发展理念"构建综合指标体系对经济增长质量展开测度,本文发现我国地方经济增长质量虽然在整体上呈缓慢上升态势,但其绝对水平相对偏低,且具有较为明显的地区异质性。最后本文通过构建动态面板联立方程模型与采取三阶段最小二乘法进行实证考察,结果表明:地方政府公共支出结构与经济增长质量显著正相关,但均衡性转移支付与经济增长质量的正相关关系并不显著。标准化回归结果显示均衡性转移支付能够通过优化公共支出结构对地方经济增长质量产生间接提升效应。     

The Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals in a Complex World

We develop a nonlinear exchange rate model with heterogeneous agents. Some agents adopt a “fundamentalist” forecasting rule, while others use a “chartist” forecasting rule. We show that the model is capable of explaining the empirical puzzles relating to exchange rate movements. In particular, the model explains the “exchange rate determination” and PPP puzzles, the excess volatility, and fat tails in exchange rate returns.     

GLOBALIZATION AND SOCIAL SPENDING

Abstract. We provide evidence indicating that countries with well developed social security systems do not necessarily face a trade‐off between social spending and competitiveness. On average, countries that spend a lot on social needs score well in the competitiveness league. We investigate the importance of a reverse causality from competitiveness to social spending, and find that this is weak. We also present some possible explanations for our empirical finding. Finally, we interpret our findings in the framework of a theoretical model in which risk affects the size of the social sector and social spending affects the production function of the private sector.     

Shareholder Value Maximisation,Stock Market and New Technology: Should the US Corporate Model be the Universal Standard? 1

In 1992 a blue‐ribbon group of US economists led by Michael Porter concluded that the US stock market‐based corporate model was misallocating resources and jeopardising US competitiveness. The faster growth of US economy since then and the supposed US lead in the spread of information technology has brought new legitimacy to the stock market and the corporate model, which is being hailed as the universal standard. Two main conclusions of the analysis presented here are: (a) there is no warrant for revising the blue‐ribbon group’s conclusion; and (b) even US corporations let alone developing country ones would be better off not having stock market valuation as a corporate goal.     

LIQUIDITY,MONEY CREATION AND DESTRUCTION,AND THE RETURNS TO BANKING*

We build on our earlier model of money in which bank liabilities circulate as a medium of exchange. We investigate optimal bank behavior and the resulting provision of liquidity under a range of central bank regulations. In our model, banks issue inside money under fractional reserves, facing the possibility of excess redemptions. Banks consider the float resulting from money creation and make reserve‐management decisions that affect aggregate liquidity conditions. Numerical examples demonstrate positive bank failure rates when returns to banking are low. Central bank interventions may improve banks' returns and welfare through a reduction in bank failure.     

Uk Corporate Acquisitions In Latin America In The 1990s: Lost Opportunities In A New Economic Environment

During the 1990s, foreign direct investment flowed into Latin America at an unprecedented rate. Capital inflows associated with privatizations and private mergers and acquisitions (M&As) rose steeply. Drawing on original firm–level transactions data, this article examines the extent to which UK enterprises participated in the Latin American privatization and private M&A boom. The authors conclude that, relative to their counterparts in many other major industrial countries, UK enterprises adopted a cautious stance, largely eschewing privatization opportunities and concentrating M&A activities on relatively few operations, sectors and countries, in order to strengthen product and market positions. Moreover, the strategic logic guiding the most important corporate acquisitions centred on gaining access to domestic markets rather than attempting to create global export platforms.     

Economic well-being and poverty among the elderly: An analysis based on a collective consumption model

We apply the collective consumption model of Browning et al. (2010) to analyse economic well-being and poverty among the elderly. The model focuses on individual preferences, a consumption technology that captures the economies of scale of living in a couple, and a sharing rule that governs the intra-household allocation of resources. The model is applied to a time series of Dutch consumption expenditure surveys. Our empirical results indicate substantial economies of scale and a wife's share that is increasing in total expenditures. We further calculated two sets of poverty rates: one based on the collective consumption model and one based on the traditional approach with a standard equivalence scale. Poverty among widowers is underestimated by the traditional approach. The same is true for women (men) in elderly couples for the first (later) time periods in our analysis. Finally, we analysed the impact of becoming a widow(er). Based on cross-sectional evidence, we find that the drop in material well-being following the husband's death is rather substantial for women. For men, the picture is reversed.     

ASPIRATION LEVEL,PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS AND FAILURE,AND EXPECTED UTILITY*

Aspiration levels are a relevant aspect of decision making. We develop a model that includes the overall probabilities of success and failure relative to the aspiration level into an expected utility representation. This turns out to be equivalent to expected utility with a discontinuous utility function. We give a behavioral foundation to the proposed model and provide conditions to determine the relative weights of the overall probabilities of success and failure. An aspiration level reinforces loss aversion, can account for simultaneous risk‐averse and risk‐seeking behavior, and can explain choices violating the mean‐variance approach.     

BOT投资方式分析

BOT是国际上一种新兴的投资方式，它既缓解了东道国政府基础设施急需建设和资金困难的矛盾，同时也带动了资本输入国国民经济、科学技术和管理水平的提高。主要对BOT投资方式的含义、法律特征、法律性质以及我国BOT投资立法的完善问题进行分析，以期引起人们对BOT投资方式及其立法的更多思考。