A Framework for Corporate Treasury Performance Measurement

Corporations generally do not have a formal process for evaluating the effectiveness of their treasury departments in managing debt. To the extent that corporate borrowing decisions are predicated on "market timing" rather than matching the interest rate sensitivity of the firm's liabilities to that of its assets, the firm is effectively making bets on interest rates that should be monitored and evaluated.
The author has developed an approach that allows for periodic reporting of treasury's performance to investors and that also provides a framework for treasury to compare and choose among alternatives in the capital markets. The basic idea is to calculate a company's liability return and then establish a benchmark portfolio that allows measurement of relative performance. For a nonfinancial corporation, a useful benchmark can be constructed using the collective debt obligations of the company's industry peers. The assumption underlying this benchmark is that the financing of the industry as a whole is designed to produce an "optimal" asset-liability configuration and net exposure to interest rates.     

The restructuring and privatisation of British Rail: was it really that bad?

This paper uses a social cost‐benefit analysis (SCBA) framework to assess whether rail privatisation in Britain has produced savings in operating costs. The paper shows that major efficiencies have been achieved and consumers have benefited through lower prices, whilst the increased government subsidy has been largely recouped through privatisation proceeds. We also find that output quality is no lower (and is probably better) than under the counterfactual scenario of public ownership (pre‐Hatfield). The achievement of further savings is key to delivering improved rail services in the future. This paper finds that a privatised structure, where shareholders demand a return on their investment, has led to significant improvements in operating efficiency. It remains to be seen whether the new regime, with a not‐for‐profit infrastructure owner, will deliver the same efficiency improvements.     

Post-IPO Operating Performance, Venture Capital and the Bubble Years

Abstract:  We analyse the post-issue operating performance of 316 venture-backed and 274 non-venture UK IPOs 1985–2003. The finding of a statistically significant five-year, operational decline exhibited over the full sample period is not robust. Rather it is driven by the dramatic underperformance during the 1998–2000 bubble years while IPOs perform normally in the remaining years. Cross-section regression results indicate support for venture capital certification in the non-bubble years but a significantly negative relationship between operating performance and venture capitalist board representation during the bubble years. The bubble year underperformance is explained by market timing and by low quality companies taking advantage of investor sentiment.     

Risk,return, and dividends

Using only the definition of returns, together with a transversality assumption, we demonstrate that given a dividend process, any one of three variables—expected return, return volatility, and the price–dividend ratio—completely determines the other two. By parameterizing only one of these processes, common empirical specifications place strong, and sometimes counter-factual, restrictions on the dynamics of the other variables. Our findings lend insight into the nature of the risk–return relation and the predictability of stock returns.     

A Narrative Approach to Collective Identities*

abstract From a narrative perspective, organizations' identities are discursive (linguistic) constructs constituted by the multiple identity‐relevant narratives that their participants author about them, and which feature, for example, in documents, conversations and electronic media. By defining collective identities as the totality
of such narratives I draw attention to their complex, and often fragmented and heterogeneous nature. My approach contrasts with much of the theorizing in this field which has tended to homogenize collective identities by emphasizing what is common
or shared, failed to capture the interplay between different communities within organizations, and produced bland, undifferentiated empirical research. In particular, the theoretical framework that I outline focuses attention on the importance of reflexivity, voice, plurivocity, temporality, and fictionality to an understanding of collective identities as locales for competing hegemonic claims. In combination, these notions form a unique conceptual model for theorizing and researching collective identities. This said, a narrative approach also has its limitations, and is proposed as an additional, not exclusive, interpretive lens.     

Institute for the future's study of the UK, 1978–1995

The method used expert opinions (collected through interviews), scenario generation, and a simple econometric model. Some methodological innovations are reported; eg aids to assist experts in thinking ahead, and in how scenarios are generated and aggregated.     

在新兴市场国家实行新巴塞尔资本协议的若干问题

对新兴市场国家而言,实施新巴塞尔资本协议将面临两大难题:一是允许采用专业评级机构信用评级的标准法几乎无法把资本要求和风险有效地结合;二是许多国家缺乏实施内部评级法的专门技术。对此,作者提出了集中评级法。对在风险不同的多个国家经营的国际性银行而言,如果使用内部评级法,其资本要求可能比使用旧巴塞尔协议或新协议标准法更高。针对跨境监管,作者提出了成立监管当局联合会、进行联合检查和披露要求等三项建议。