On Jumps and ARCH Effects in Natural Resource Prices: An Application to Pacific Northwest Stumpage Prices

Continuous-time models of natural resource prices usually preclude the possibility of large changes (jumps) resulting from unexpected events. To test for the presence of jumps and/or ARCH effects, we combine bounds and the Monte Carlo test technique to obtain finite-sample, level-exact p -values. We apply this methodology to stumpage prices from the Pacific Northwest and find evidence of jumps and ARCH effects. To assess the impact of neglecting jumps on the decision to harvest old-growth timber, we develop an autonomous, infinite-horizon stopping model for which we provide a new method of resolution. Our numerical results show the importance of modeling jumps explicitly.     

INPUTS,OUTPUTS AND PRODUCTIVITY CHANGE IN THE AUSTRALIAN SHEEP INDUSTRY

Tornqvist quantity indexes of output and input are computed for the period 1952/53 to 1976/77 from Australian Sheep Industry Survey data. The computation includes estimating the annual service flow from durable inputs. Total productivity in the sheep industry is estimated to have increased by 2.9 per cent per annum during this 25-year period. While the ratio of capital employed per unit of labour has increased, materials, services and livestock have been the inputs for which the quantity used has increased most rapidly. On the output side, there has been a move towards greater diversification with both crop and cattle enterprises on 'sheep properties' increasing in relative importance.     

Orbital mechanics of south korea's technological development: an examination of the 'gravitational' pushes and pulls

This paper highlights some of the critical challenges faced by Korea, more specifically the Korean government and industry, as it strives to find a stable and secure place in the evolving international division of labour. Changes in two specific areas are discussed: the international technology market-palce and Korea' technology relationships with a number of key economies.     

THE NON-CONSTANCY OF EQUIVALENCE SCALES

Comparisons of households of differing composition are usually achieved through the use of equivalence scales. It is well known that the choice of scales can have considerable impact on the conclusions drawn from studies of welfare and poverty. There is a considerable literature on the theoretical issues relating to equivalence scales, but applied work on income distribution and related areas almost invariably takes scales to be constant irrespective of income. This paper focuses on the relation of scale to income, by applying theoretical analysis to some simple household types. The conclusion is that scales are not constant and that current practice should be changed.     

Development as liberation: Policy lessons from case studies

Four case studies are summarized in which oppressed people have successfully assumed control over their own destinies and development strategies. Lessons from experience are drawn, at the national and macro-economic level, from Guinea-Bissau where the popular liberation movement has grown into the national government without losing close contact with its constituency; from the Sarvodaya movement in Sri Lanka which has started as a modest development organization of poor people, based on indigenous social and cultural values, and which has grown into a popular movement of 1 million people (of 14 million total population) in some 2000 villages; from the SEWA (Self-Employed Women's Association) in Ahmedabad, India, where oppressed street vendors, artisans, junksmiths and garment-makers have founded their own bank (which now has 1000 shareholders and 10,000 depositors) to circumvent usurious lending practices and to gain access to capital at their own terms; and from a Quechua community in central Bolivia where handicrafts producers' cooperatives have successfully maintained self-reliance and cultural identity through conscious choice of appropriate technology at their own terms. Lessons on development as a form of liberation are drawn from the social praxis of each of these examples.     

National policies within the CAP

Despite the existence of the Common Agricultural Policy within the EEC a considerable number of policies still remain under national control. Professor Britton reviews these, which include several commodities, most technical activities and land tenure policy, and the ‘grey areas’ which may become subject to Community control. He points to alternative policies which might reduce some of the tensions in the CAP and urges a more positive approach by national governments. Each government should ask if it would be willing for other governments to pursue the policies which it wishes to follow for its agricultural population.