Ratio-based estimators for a change point in persistence

We study estimation of the date of change in persistence, from I(0)$I\left(0\right)$ to I(1)$I\left(1\right)$ or vice versa. Contrary to statements in the original papers, our analytical results establish that the ratio-based break point estimators of Kim [Kim, J.Y., 2000. Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series. Journal of Econometrics 95, 97–116], Kim et al. [Kim, J.Y., Belaire-Franch, J., Badillo Amador, R., 2002. Corringendum to “Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series”. Journal of Econometrics 109, 389–392] and Busetti and Taylor [Busetti, F., Taylor, A.M.R., 2004. Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence. Journal of Econometrics 123, 33–66] are inconsistent when a mean (or other deterministic component) is estimated for the process. In such cases, the estimators converge to random variables with upper bound given by the true break date when persistence changes from I(0)$I\left(0\right)$ to I(1)$I\left(1\right)$. A Monte Carlo study confirms the large sample downward bias and also finds substantial biases in moderate sized samples, partly due to properties at the end points of the search interval.     

Business cycle affiliations in the context of European integration

We study affiliations for the countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) with Germany and the USA, using various business cycle measures derived from quarterly real GDP. These measures are Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King filtered series and annual growth rates. By using rolling contemporaneous and maximum (over a short lead/lag interval) correlations, we document increasing correlations of EMU countries with Germany, with these typically being largest during the 1990s. We also document a strong leading role for the USA in relation to these countries in the period since 1993, thereby correcting the fallacy that the European business cycle was disjointed from the USA for most of the 1990s.     

Four essays on economic evolution: an introduction

This essay is in two parts. The first considers the evolution of evolutionary economics from 1982 to 2012. While enormous advances are acknowledged, it is argued that the field is in danger of fragmentation and that there has been relatively little development in its over-arching theoretical framework since Nelson and Winter (1982). This sets the scene for a 2011 workshop and four of the papers presented at the event. In the second part, each paper is outlined in turn, both in terms of its specific contribution and any light it may shine on the problems raised in the first part.     

Anti-consumption and brand avoidance

This article focuses on a particular form of anti-consumption; brand avoidance. Specifically, it explores why people may avoid some brands, even when their financial circumstances allow them the option to purchase. The authors use qualitative data to develop a conceptual framework that helps clarify why consumers avoid certain brands. This study reveals three types of brand avoidance: experiential, identity and moral brand avoidance. Experiential brand avoidance occurs because of negative first hand consumption experiences that lead to unmet expectations. Identity avoidance develops when the brand image is symbolically incongruent with the individual's identity. Moral avoidance arises when the consumer's ideological beliefs clash with certain brand values or associations, particularly when the consumer is concerned about the negative impact of a brand on society. Finally, this study highlights potential strategies that managers could implement to deal with brand avoidance.     

Welfare Reform and the Labour Supply of Lone Parents in Australia: A Natural Experiment Approach

Large shifts in the labour supply of lone parents in Australia were observed between 1986 and 1990. Changes in the observed characteristics of lone parents explain only a small portion of these shifts. Propensity score matching and difference-in-differences are used to estimate the effects of the substantial policy shifts implemented in 1987. Control groups are constructed from the sample of married mothers. Results suggest that the policy reforms caused a substantial increase in the employment of lone parents while causing a reduction in the hours of work among the workers.     

The performance and robustness of simple monetary policy rules in models of the Canadian economy

Abstract.  In this paper, we evaluate seven simple monetary policy rules in a wide range of models of the Canadian economy. Our results indicate that none of the seven simple policy rules we examined is robust to model uncertainty, in that no single rule performs well in all models. In fact, our results show that the performance of some of the simple rules, particularly rules with interest rate smoothing and rules with a high coefficient on the inflation gap, can substantially deviate from that of the optimal rule and can even be unstable in some models. Furthermore, we find that "open‐economy" rules do not perform well in many models. We find that adding an exchange rate term to a simple policy rule often increases the value of the policy‐maker's loss function. Although it is not robust, we find that a simple nominal Taylor‐type rule that has a coefficient of 2 on the inflation gap and 0.5 on the output gap outperforms the other simple rules in a certain class of models. However, even in those models, the loss‐function value of this simple rule can be substantially higher than that of the optimal or base‐case rule. JEL classification: E52, E58     

Linking strategy and human resource practices: How employee and customer contracts are created

Organizations implement their business strategies through the human resource (HR) practices they use. These practices are major determinants of employees' psychological contracts. How employees interpret the terms of their employment impacts motivation, innovation, and customer service. This article describes four common types of psychological contracts in US firms and the HR practices that create them. It develops a framework for understanding how each contract shapes employee performance, retention, cooperation with fellow employees and customer responsiveness. It presents recommendations for more effectively managing the link between business strategy and the psychological contract of employees. © 1994 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Intellectual Property Rights in the Asian-Pacific Region: problems, patterns, and policy

This paper explores recent theory and evidence regarding increased protection of intellectual property rights (ZPRs) in Asia. Knowledge has significant public good aspects making optimal provision a problem of trading off universal access against adequate incentives for R&D. Given the ease of evasion of IPR relative to tariffs, attempts to push low and middleincome countries to higher levels of protection may be against their national interests. The Uruguay Round may encounter less than enthusiastic enforcement. Further efforts to refine IPR protection might usefully be focused on flexibility instead of harmonisation.