The prospects for OPEC: A critical survey of models of the world oil market

The paper critically surveys seven recent models of the world oil market and their evaluations of the prospects for OPEC: Blitzer-Meeraus-Stoutjesdijk, Bohi-Russell, the U.S. Federal Energy Administration, Kennedy, Kalymon, Levy and Nordhaus. After a brief discussion of the basic approaches to the problem, we examine the model specifications in some detail. The principal contributions and conclusions are summarized, as are the main limitations of these models. We conclude with some suggestions of the most promising areas for future research.     

Strategic R&D Commitment and the Gains from Trade

This paper examines how trade liberalization affects innovation, profits and welfare in a model of reciprocal markets when firms pre‐commit to research and development (R&D). We establish that the equilibrium is not always unique and show that, with trade, R&D commitment leads to higher levels of innovation, lower profits, higher consumer surplus and higher welfare than when R&D is chosen simultaneously to output levels. Furthermore, if the effectiveness of R&D is sufficiently high, trade always yields higher welfare than autarky, implying that R&D commitment may significantly enhance the welfare gains from trade liberalization.     

Strategic Trade Policy with Heterogeneous Costs

The paper examines optimal strategic trade policy under a heterogeneous cost oligopoly. The first‐best policy involves a structure of firm‐specific export subsidies/taxes in which the government favours the most efficient firms only with a sufficiently low social cost of public funds.     

Learning by Doing, Precommitment and Infant-Industry Promotion

We examine the implications for strategic trade policy of different assumptions about precommitment in a two-period Cournot oligopoly game with learning by doing. The inability of firms and governments to precommit to future actions encourages strategic behaviour which justifies an optimal first-period export tax relative to the profit-shifting benchmark of an export subsidy. In the linear case the optimal subsidy is increasing in the rate of learning with government precommitment but decreasing in it without, in apparent contradiction to the infant-industry argument. Extensions to active foreign policy, distortionary taxation and Bertrand competition are also considered.     

Divide and Rule: Geographical Diversification and the Multinational Firm

We develop a model to illustrate a motive for FDI that derives from a firm's overall locational strategy. A firm, that initially has a plant in its home country, may choose to also have a foreign plant in order to improve its bargaining position versus local labour unions. This permits the firm to reduce wages. Furthermore, the existence of a second foreign plant acts to discipline the demands of foreign workers. Thus, the firm is faced with a link between the wage and its degree of geographical diversification. This drives up the number of plants the firm has in equilibrium.     

An Analysis of Regional Economic Growth in the U.S. Midwest

In this paper, we examine more closely some of the forces that underlie economic growth at the county level. In an effort to describe a much more comprehensive regional economic growth model, we address a variety of different hypotheses by introducing a large number of growth-related variables. When formulating our hypotheses and specifying our growth model, we make liberal use of geographic mapping software to describe the data so as to "paint" a picture of where growth spots exist. Our empirical estimation indicates amenities, state and local tax burdens, population density, amount of primary agriculture activity, and demographics have important impacts on economic growth.     

Financial optimisation of forest-level harvest scheduling in Ireland – A case study

World-wide, forest managers have long recognised the benefits of using optimisation-based modelling techniques to improve decision-making. With no such systems in operation in Irish forestry, optimisation-based economic models were developed for harvest scheduling on a forest level within the context of a hierarchical approach. These new techniques were compared to those currently employed by Coillte Teoranta (the Irish Forestry Board). The development of the optimisation models involved the evaluation of: different management options strategies, optimisation techniques, model types and constraint strategies. Evaluation of the models was carried out in Clonbrock forest (294.8 ha), a typical Irish plantation forest, owned and managed by Coillte. The application of the selected model resulted in an increase in net present value (NPV) over the 5-year planning period of 14.2% compared to the NPV produced by Coillte's current process.