Journal of Quantitative Economics - This paper examines the impact of payment technology on seasonality in currency in circulation. We specify that total transaction in a period follows a Gompertz... 相似文献
The paper, based on India Human Development Survey (IHDS) data, tries to address the question- how unequal is India in terms of income distribution? Accordingly, the paper examines the trends, levels, sources and factors of income inequality in India between 2005 and 2012. Three important results stemmed from our analysis. First, in this paper we use Gini as a measure of inequality and find that income inequality in rural India has increased from 0.50 to 0.54 between 2005 and 2012, whereas, in urban India income inequality has increased from 0.48 to 0.49 during the same period. Next and most importantly, we decompose income inequality by income sources and find that amongst different sources of income inequality; the contribution of farm income in total inequality has decreased from 35 percent in 2005 to 21 percent in 2012 in rural India. On the other hand, the contribution of salaried income in total inequality has plummeted drastically from 65 percent in 2005 to 16 percent in 2012 in urban India. Finally, we use Theil’s T index from the class of Generalized Entropy (GE) inequality measures, while decomposing income by four most important factors; namely, place of residence, social, educational and occupational groups. It is irrespective of these factors; the relative share of within-group inequality is not only much higher than that of between-group inequality, also its share has increased between these two periods. Thus, our paper suggests that these mutually reinforcing inequalities, in the long run, if not addressed effectively, will create a hard-hitting division between the privileged and the rest in Indian society.
The issue of decoupling of emerging market economies (EMEs) (especially in the Asian region) from the developments in advanced economies has become a subject of lively debate in recent years. Basically, decoupling seems to comprise three sub-hypotheses: (i) growth spillovers from advanced countries to EMEs decreasing progressively in importance, (ii) business cycles in EMEs becoming less synchronized with those of the advanced world and (iii) strengthening of growth spillovers and cyclical synchronization among the EMEs as a group. The received literature fails to distinguish adequately between the trend and cyclical aspects of the decoupling relationship. We resort to two frequency domain methods (nonstationary spectral causality testing and wavelet correlations), which seem to offer a neat separation of trend and cyclical decoupling. Based on a sample of seven EMEs from the Asian region (including the two large EMEs – China and India), we uncover strong evidence favouring both trend and cyclical decoupling. 相似文献
Aims: Patients with psoriasis often undergo treatment with a sequence of biologic agents because of poor/loss of response to initial therapy. With the availability of newer agents like ixekizumab and secukinumab, there is a need for cost-effectiveness analyses to better reflect current clinical practice. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a sequence of biologic therapies containing first-line ixekizumab vs first-line secukinumab in patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis in the UK.Materials and methods: A Markov model with a lifetime horizon was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of ixekizumab and secukinumab treatment sequences: ixekizumab → ustekinumab → infliximab → best supportive care (BSC) vs secukinumab → ustekinumab → infliximab → BSC. The model used monthly cycles, and included four health states: trial period, treatment maintenance, BSC, and death. At the end of the trial period, responders transitioned to maintenance therapy; non-responders transitioned to the next biologic in the sequence. An annual discontinuation rate of 20% was assumed for maintenance therapy.Results: The ixekizumab sequence provided cost savings of £898 (£176,203 vs 177,101) [year 2015 values] and gained 0.03 more quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs: 1.45 vs 1.42) vs the secukinumab sequence over the lifetime horizon. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed an 89.8% likelihood that the ixekizumab sequence would be cost-effective at a threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained.Limitations: The analysis used list prices for drugs rather than confidential, preferentially priced Patient Access Scheme costs. In addition, efficacy input data were based on a network meta-analysis, as there were no head-to-head trials comparing ixekizumab and secukinumab.Conclusion: First-line treatment with ixekizumab as part of a specific sequential biologic therapy for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis in the UK provided slight advantages in cost savings and QALYs gained over a similar treatment sequence initiated with secukinumab. In view of the small magnitude of these differences, factors such as patient preferences (e.g. for number of injections) and long-term safety (e.g. related to time on the market) may also be important for clinical decision-making. 相似文献
We examine and compare a large number of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) and stochastic volatility (SV) models using series of Bitcoin and Litecoin price returns to assess the model fit for dynamics of these cryptocurrency price returns series. The various models examined include the standard GARCH(1,1) and SV with an AR(1) log-volatility process, as well as more flexible models with jumps, volatility in mean, leverage effects, t-distributed and moving average innovations. We report that the best model for Bitcoin is SV-t while it is GARCH-t for Litecoin. Overall, the t-class of models performs better than other classes for both cryptocurrencies. For Bitcoin, the SV models consistently outperform the GARCH models and the same holds true for Litecoin in most cases. Finally, the comparison of GARCH models with GARCH-GJR models reveals that the leverage effect is not significant for cryptocurrencies, suggesting that these do not behave like stock prices. 相似文献
This study examines the price discovery process and relative efficiency of ten most liquid agricultural commodities’ futures contracts, traded on the largest agricultural commodity exchange of India (National Commodity and Derivative Exchange Limited). Three different common factor methodologies—component share method (Gonzalo and Granger in J Bus Econ Stat 13:27–35, 1995), information share method (Hasbrouck in J Financ 50:1175–1199, 1995), and modified information share method (Lien and Shrestha in J Futures Mark 29:377–395, 2009)—have been employed to determine the extent of price discovery contribution by spot and futures markets. The sample consists of daily data for the period from January 1, 2009 to October 20, 2015. Stationarity and Cointegration test results reveal that spot and futures prices are integrated and cointegrated for all commodities. The price discovery results show that the futures market leads the spot market in case of six commodities, i.e., castor seed, coriander, cottonseed oilcake, soy oil, sugarM and turmeric. Whereas, in the case of four commodities (chana (chickpea), guar seed, jeera, and mustard seed), price discovery takes place in the spot market. Therefore, it could be inferred that futures market is more efficient in price discovery of agricultural commodities. Policymakers could use these results to design futures contracts on other commodities or to plan concrete policies to curb speculation without hampering the efficiency of the agricultural commodity derivatives market.
Since the mid-1980s, stock market activity has increased substantiallyin many developing countries. This article first examines themain characteristics of emerging stock markets and illustratesthe evolution of equity prices in these markets during the lastdecade. It then discusses the reasons for the markets' growthand assesses the extent to which they have been affected bydomestic policies and external factors. The authors discussthe likely benefits of these markets, the effects any abruptcorrection in stock prices could have for the economy, and theways in which these markets can be made more efficient. 相似文献
In this article we examine Wagner's law for Fiji for the period 1970 to 2002. Using the Johansen (1988Johansen, S. 1988. Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12: 231–54. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar]) test for cointegration, we find one cointegration relationship between national output and government expenditure. Using five different long run estimators, we find robust results on the impact of national income on government expenditure. The elasticity ranges from 1.36 to 1.44, implying that a 1% increase in income leads to a 1.36–1.44% increase in government expenditure. Moreover, we find that in the long run national income Granger causes government expenditure. While these results are consistent with Wagner's law, we warn policy makers that because Fiji's total debt stands at around 69% of GDP, in future the bulk of expenditure will go towards debt financing at the expense of productive sectors. 相似文献
Coupons account for over two-thirds of all consumer promotional efforts initiated by the manufacturers of consumer goods. In this study, the impact of coupons on brand sales is investigated and how that impact decays over the life of the coupon is demonstrated. Specifically, we present an econometric model that can capture coupon effects in terms of equivalent price reduction, account for coupon effects over time, allow inference of coupon effects when retailers decide to double or triple the coupon value, and provide both self-coupon and cross-coupon elasticities at different levels of aggregation. A widely used sales response model is adapted, and an analytical model is proposed to estimate both the self-coupon and cross-coupon (face value) elasticities of sales at the store level. From the store-level elasticity estimates for a given week, the authors analytically derive the coupon elasticities for the chain level by aggregating across stores, and over the life of the coupon by aggregating over time. The proposed sales response model is estimated with the data obtained from three markets for various product categories, and the coupon elasticities are computed. The proposed framework allows one to demonstrate the hypothetical equivalence of a shelf-price reduction for a given coupon face value in each week. Also, the effect of doubling the face value of a coupon results in more than a proportionate increase in elasticity. The authors find that both self and cross-coupon elasticities are much smaller in magnitude than the average self and cross-price elasticity measures reported in the literature. 相似文献
