实体杠杆对经济增长的影响研究——基于金融稳定的调节效应

本文以全球43个国家和地区2001-2020年的动态面板数据为研究样本,实证检验不同实体部门杠杆对经济增长的影响差异及作用机制。通过构造金融稳定指数,进一步论证金融稳定对实体杠杆与经济增长之间关系的调节效应。结果表明:实体杠杆与经济增长之间存在“倒U形”关系,不同部门杠杆对经济增长影响的“拐点”有所不同。机制检验发现,居民杠杆、企业杠杆和政府杠杆分别通过“消费”“投资”和“政府支出”渠道影响经济增长;金融稳定性的提升能够正向调节实体杠杆对经济增长的影响,提高实体杠杆对经济增长影响的“拐点”。上述结论对我国经济增长和杠杆调控具有一定政策启示。在经济运行过程中,应充分考虑各部门杠杆异质性,细化实体杠杆的调控方向,进一步优化杠杆结构,以期实现经济增长与金融稳定双重目标下的动态平衡。     

Portfolio optimization under model uncertainty and BSDE games

We consider robust optimal portfolio problems for markets modeled by (possibly non-Markovian) Itô–Lévy processes. Mathematically, the situation can be described as a stochastic differential game, where one of the players (the agent) is trying to find the portfolio that maximizes the utility of her terminal wealth, while the other player (“the market”) is controlling some of the unknown parameters of the market (e.g., the underlying probability measure, representing a model uncertainty problem) and is trying to minimize this maximal utility of the agent. This leads to a worst case scenario control problem for the agent. In the Markovian case, such problems can be studied using the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman–Isaacs (HJBI) equation, but these methods do not work in the non-Markovian case. We approach the problem by transforming it into a stochastic differential game for backward stochastic differential equations (a BSDE game). Using comparison theorems for BSDEs with jumps we arrive at criteria for the solution of such games in the form of a kind of non-Markovian analogue of the HJBI equation. The results are illustrated by examples.     

Toward a Model to Enhance Synergy of Out-of-Home Advertising Media Integration Strategies

ABSTRACT

For media planners to combine multiple media across platforms to maximize synergy is a critical challenge within integrated marketing communication. For this study, in-depth interviews were conducted with experienced media specialists in leading agencies to explore how they integrate different out-of-home advertising media platforms in IMC strategies. The feedback of these experts was then used to propose a model of strategies to enhance synergy within out-of-home advertising campaigns. This model is a first of its kind for planning out-of-home advertising media across platforms and bridges a gap in the existing literature on media synergy and out-of-home advertising media strategy.     

创业导向对企业绩效影响实证分析

创业导向作为一种实现企业绩效的潜在手段,是当前创业研究的一个发展方向。创业导向不仅仅是利用机会开展创新活动,而且还包括在创新的基础上开展超前行动和积极竞争以获得竞争优势。同时创业导向的各种特性分别对创业企业绩效产生影响。以应对环境不确定性及复杂性的思维模式和行为方式,有利于企业在动荡环境中的生存与成长。     

会计准则变迁的自组织演化机理研究

近年来的制度变迁研究,日趋倾向于利用自组织理论探讨。本文将会计准则视为一种制度,将会计准则制定看作是一种制度安排,并将会计准则变迁纳入制度变迁的理论框架中进行研究。本文运用自组织理论,阐述了会计准则变迁的自组织本质,并从会计准则变迁自组织演化的前提、动力、演化诱因和演化路径四个方面,分析了会计准则变迁自组织演化机理,试图为会计准则变迁研究开辟一条新的途径。     

规范收入分配秩序 推进收入分配改革

改革开放三十多年来,中国居民收入大幅增长,但分配失衡的问题也日益凸显。收入分配秩序是否合理直接关系到收入分配的结果是否公平,关系到经济增长的好处能否有效地惠及各个阶层。因此,本文认为推进收入分配改革,首先应规范收入分配秩序。本文采用对比分析和实证分析的方法,总结出当前我国收入分配秩序中存在的主要问题:垄断行业工资过高、公务员工资制度不合理,灰色收入多,农民工工资低且拖欠现象严重,税收调节力度不够。最终提出了规范当前收入分配秩序的政策建议。     

高校中层干部教育培训质量评价研究

为了进一步解决目前高校中层干部教育培训考核评价中存在的问题,根据我国高校中层干部教育培训的客观实际,运用PDCA理论,从教育培训的策划、实施、检查和改进四个方面建立一套完善的考核评价指标体系,并针对高校中层干部教育培训组织情况的复杂性和模糊性,运用层次分析法确定了指标权重,采用模糊综合评价法进行实证评价。对中国民航大学中层干部教育培训实际情况进行实证分析的研究结果表明,按照对高校中层干部教育培训情况的影响程度,排在前七位的影响因素依次为培训课程开发、培训的内容、需求调查、老师讲课效果、培训课程的安排、培训的改进、培训的总结;中国民航大学中层干部教育培训整体情况处于一般和较好之间。这与实际情况基本符合。     

Researching taste: an interview of Antoine Hennion

ABSTRACT

Antoine Hennion is a Professor of Sociology at the Centre de Sociologie de l’Innovation (Mines-Paris Tech, PSL/CNRS). He has been researching taste and cultural practices through a pragmatic lens for three decades. He has developed an original and impactful theoretical framework bridging the Actor-Network Theory to Cultural Studies. More precisely, he reconceptualized the notions of mediation and attachment. Antoine Hennion has explored various empirical settings, including music, wine, and sports. More recently, he has contributed to a large research project on migration. His books and academic articles have had an impact on Sociology, and are getting greater attention in consumer research.     

转型经济背景下中小企业融资结构变迁

转型经济时期,我国中小企业得到迅速发展,它们不但成为国民经济的重要支柱,同时也为社会提供了大量的就业机会。但是,由于自身的因素和外部环境的影响,中小企业在融资方面一直存在"麦克米伦缺口"(Macmillan Gap),即"资金供给方不愿意以中小企业所要求的条件提供资金"。融资难的问题,不仅使中小企业的融资成本高居不下,而且直接影响到企业的市场竞争力和未来发展。