Anticipated Environmental Policy and Transitional Dynamics in an Endogenous Growth Model

This paper makes a new attempt toinvestigate how an anticipatedenvironmental policy governs the transitionaldynamics of an economy when pollutionexternality is taken into account. Themodeling strategy we use is an AK technologyendogenous growth framework with an endogenousleisure-labor choice. It is found that, unlikeinelastic labor supply framework, a rise inpublic abatement expenditure will stimulate thebalanced economic growth rate. It is alsofound that public abatement technology plays animportant role in determining the transitionaladjustment of the economic growth rate inresponse to a pre-announced environmentalpolicy.     

地方化经济与城市化经济——对我国省份制造业数据的实证研究

引入动态外部经济的实证研究方法,分别利用1993-2003年我国各省份制造业20个行业的工业增加值、就业人数、资本存量数据,以检验我国各地区地方化经济和城市化经济的作用。利用不同的数据集可以得到不同的结论,共通的结论是初始产业规模对产业发展有正向作用、产业的竞争程度有利于产业的发展。对于专业化和多样化水平,利用产出数据的回归结果显示专业化于某一产业不利于该产业的发展、多样化水平的影响不显著,而利用就业数据的回归结果显示专业化的影响不显著而多样化有利于产业的发展。就我国的实际情况而言,利用产出数据的分析应更有说服力。     

技术创新能力生命周期与研发投入对企业绩效的影响

研发投入与企业绩效的关系一直备受国内外学者关注,但对该问题的研究并未得出一致结论。技术创新能力是高新技术企业内部能力的基础,不同技术创新能力水平下研发投入对企业绩效的影响存在显著差异。通过分析78家高科技上市公司2007-2013年面板数据,建立回归方程模型,探讨了在不同企业技术创新阶段研发投入与绩效的关系。实证研究表明,在成长期与成熟期,研发投入与绩效呈正向关系。其中,在成长期,该正向关系最显著;进入衰退期,二者之间不存在统计意义上的相关性。     

THE 2007–2008 U.S. RECESSION: WHAT DID THE REAL‐TIME GOOGLE TRENDS DATA TELL THE UNITED STATES?

In the extant literature of business cycle predictions, the signals for business cycle turning points are generally issued with a lag of at least 5 months. In this paper, we make use of a novel and timely indicator—the Google search volume data—to help to improve the timeliness of business cycle turning point identification. We identify multiple query terms to capture the real‐time public concern on the aggregate economy, the credit market, and the labor market condition. We incorporate the query indices in a Markov‐switching framework and successfully “nowcast” the peak date within a month that the turning occurred. (JEL E37, G17)     

Evidence of the duration-dependence from the stock markets in the Pacific Rim economies

This article investigates the duration-dependent feature of five Pacific Rim economies. The duration-dependent Markov Switching model is employed to achieve this objective. The Savage–Dickey density ratio is also computed in support of the duration-dependent Markov switching model. The possible bull and bear market dates for each stock market are also identified by the posterior probability from the empirical model. It is unambiguous that Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong are all characterized by duration-dependence in a bear market but no duration-dependence in a bull market. In the case of Taiwan and Singapore, the duration-dependence feature holds for both the bear and bull markets.     

国家科技奖励获奖项目成果推广应用的综合激励政策

通过对2000年度至2003年度获得国家科技奖励的主要科技人员进行广泛的问卷调查,提出了国家科技奖励获奖项目成果推广应用的对策建议。     

Financial liberalization and sectoral reallocation of capital in South Africa

We examine the impact of financial reforms on efficient reallocation of capital within and between sectors in South Africa using firm-level panel data for the period 1991–2008. The measure of efficient allocation of capital is based on the Tobin’s Q. We find that financial reforms are associated with improvements in within-sector, but not between-sector allocation of capital. These results imply that for South Africa to unleash the potential for take-off that is often associated with reallocation of resources from the primitive to modern sectors, reforms that focus beyond the financial sector are necessary. While more research is necessary to determine what would fully constitute such additional reforms, our analysis shows that reforms that improve the quality of economic institutions may be a step in the right the direction.     

创新政策组合：研究述评与未来展望

创新政策组合是当前政策研究领域的热点问题,已经得到越来越多学者的关注。通过梳理国内外创新政策组合相关研究文献,阐述政策组合概念起源和内涵,对政策组合文献的发文数量、重要文献等进行统计和分析。在此基础上,进一步厘清创新政策组合的发展脉络及理论框架,并从政策组合的维度、要素、过程和特征4个方面分析创新政策组合研究现状。最后,针对现有研究不足,提出未来研究方向,为进一步拓展该领域研究提供理论基础和知识储备。     

冀北超基性岩地质特征

冀北超基性岩带位于华北地台北缘，受崇礼－隆化深大断裂控制。该岩带从西往东可分为赤城、丰宁－滦平和承德－平泉三个超基性岩群。各岩群的形态、产状、岩石类型、矿物成份、化学成份各有特点，表现出一定的规律性。Ｋ－Ａｒ及Ｓｍ－Ｎｄ同位素年龄表明，这些超基性告形成于中元古宙、海西期及印支期。     

论学报编辑的创造性劳动

创造性劳动是指发明创造出前所未有的新的精神产品和物质产品的劳动,它具有三个特征:劳动的实践性;思维的创造性;成果的创新性。学报编辑的劳动具有创造性劳动特征,创造性思维贯穿于学报编辑的全过程。选题与组稿是体现编辑劳动的一个环节,它从根本上把编辑的劳动与作者的劳动区别开来,从本质上揭示了编辑独立劳动的思维创造性;编辑加工是对原稿的内容、形式、整体设计和局部结构进行研究,对文中概念运用、逻辑推理、语法措辞进行斟酌,是一项思想性和学术性很强的创造性劳动;装帧设计是一种高级的艺术创造,编辑要充分发挥创造性思维,博采众长,才能使学报成为给人美的享受的刊物。学报编辑的创造性在编辑工作的各个环节都是头等重要的。