Errors and questionable judgments in analysts’ DCF models

We investigate the number of and reasons for errors and questionable judgments that sell-side equity analysts make in constructing and executing discounted cash flow (DCF) equity valuation models. For a sample of 120 DCF models detailed in reports issued by U.S. brokers in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that analysts make a median of three theory-related and/or execution errors and four questionable economic judgments per DCF. Recalculating analysts’ DCFs after correcting for major errors changes analysts’ mean valuations and target prices by between ?2 and 14 % per error. Based on face-to-face interviews with analysts and those who oversee them, we conclude that analysts’ DCF modeling behavior is semi-sophisticated in the sense that analysts genuinely make mistakes regarding certain aspects of correctly valuing equity but also respond rationally to the incentives they face, particularly the reality that they are not directly compensated for being textbook DCF correct.     

Counterfactual analysis of bank mergers

We introduce a counterfactual analysis of banks mergers, combining the pre-merger equilibrium setting with post-merger environmental characteristics, while accounting for endogenously propagated changes in market structure. Using this procedure we are able to estimate the effects on loan flows and interest rates that would have been observed if the pre-merger equilibrium was not altered. Results are obtained for firms, households, and banks inside and outside the merging circles separately. We find that mergers increased firms’ access to credit, but had an opposite effect on households and led to a widespread decrease in interest rates.     

Lone Mothers: What is to be done?

This Dialogue presents the views of four authors, from the US, the UK, and Norway, on the best policies to help lone mothers. Lone mothers face an inevitable dilemma in allocating their time between earning income and caring for their children. The low-earning capacity of women in an unequal labor market exacerbates the problem, causing material hardship for many lone mothers and their families. The policy solutions proposed lie along a spectrum, ranging from those that seek to enable all lone mothers to take employment to those that aim to let mothers choose whether to take employment or care for their children themselves. Other policies discussed concern ways to value and support caregiving, improve the low-wage labor market for women, and provide a set of income supports that would both boost income and provide time to care for children.     

Urban recreation research: An overview

Despite the fact that the population of the United States ha shifted from largely rural to largely urban in this century, the commitment to research in recreation, inadequate as it is, has remained in the hinterlands. There is no critical mass of recreation researchers focusing on urban recreation as there now is focused on outdoor recreation. Urban recreation studies have been noncumulative in nature due to the wide range their sponsors, staff, substantive topics, lack of generalizability, and inevitable tensions between practitioners and researchers. Ironically, urban recreational research, and support of it, has diminished in this country at the same time that there has been an increasing concern for such information and knowledge. The future looks bleak insofar as the development of a strong, major, national urban recreation research program is concerned.     

Leisure Research and Leisure Practice: Three Perspectives on Constructing the Research?Practice Relation

The leisure research?leisure practice relation remains uncertain. Assuming leisure provides a preexisting link is not supported by research. Leisure research and leisure practice are independent professional paradigms between which a relation must be constructed. Three perspectives on constructing the research?practice relation are examined in this article: the traditional, the personal, and the critical. The benefits approach to leisure is a test case in each perspective. The traditional and personal perspectives subordinate one professional paradigm to the other or intensify their separation. The benefits approach fails to resolve these difficulties. The critical perspective emphasizes developmental activity and emancipation, facilitates research?practice interaction, and maintains the professional paradigms' integrity, and it reveals shortcomings in the benefits approach. The critical perspective enables the most dynamic research?practice relation.     

Recreation and the Environment as Cultural Dimensions in Contemporary American Society

This paper broadly explores changing outdoor recreation demands, environmental opinions and demographics in the United States. With this country's population predicted to more than double by the end of this century, it is imperative that we understand these trends and their implications for better managing our natural environment and providing opportunities for outdoor recreation in that environment. Using national survey data, we have described differences in recreation behavior (participation) and environmental attitudes nationwide across six socio-demographic factors-race, country of birth, rural-urban residence, region of the country, age and income. Results indicate that demographic differences, recreation activity choices and people's environmental positions are linked.     

Perfectly competitive bilateral exchange without discounting

In a random-matching economy of traders who maximize cumulative consumption (overtaking criterion), the stationary, Markov, Bayesian-perfect equilibrium is studied. At such equilibrium, two results hold: (1) perfect substitutability between current and future consumption implies a no-surplus condition; and (2) by the no-surplus condition, there is a nominal price at which all trades must occur. These results strengthen the seminal results of Ostroy (1973) regarding monetary bilateral exchange in two ways: the incentive compatibility of the equilibrium trading pattern is established and a less roundabout trading pattern enhances welfare by enabling consumption to occur more frequently.     

Trust in Companies and in CEOs: A Comparative Study of the Main Influences

Trust is a crucial factor for the long-term economic success of a company. However, not only does the company establish trust, but the CEO representing the company builds up trust as well and, therefore, also influences the company’s success. Our study examines how different dimensions of trust (i.e., ability, integrity, benevolence, and information quality) influence the degree of overall trust in a company and in CEOs. Nevertheless, dimensions that influence trust in a CEO can be completely different to those influencing trust in companies. Companies and CEOs that act on an international level can hardly be experienced individually, and thus people get information about the company via media use. Therefore, additionally we examine which kind of media is used for getting information about a company or CEO and whether a relationship exists between media use and trust. Findings from a survey in Switzerland (n = 245) show that companies are more trusted than CEOs and that the items which influence overall trust differ between CEOs and companies. Social responsibility as a benevolence item is important for both groups. Regarding information on different media channels, users of traditional media like newspapers, TV, and radio are most critical regarding trust in companies and CEOs.