French Firms' Exports During Downturns: Evidence from Past Crises

This paper makes use of detailed French firm‐level data on a quarterly basis to investigate the impact of past crises on exports and the margins of adjustment. We first detect crises periods using quantitative criteria and classify them into banking crises, currency crises, simultaneous banking and currency crises, and other crises. Our results underline the prevalence of the intensive margin of adjustment to large shocks, that is, firms reducing their average sales per product while staying on the market. The extensive margin of trade is, however, dominant in currency crises. On average, a crisis reduces the growth rate of exports over six quarters. Finally, we show that exports overreact to demand variations during crises, and that the extensive margin is more responsive to demand. Other factors, not directly related to demand, mostly affect the intensive margin.     

Productivity Trends in Australian and New Zealand Manufacturing

The purpose of this article is to study relative trends in total factor productivity (TFP) between the Australian and New Zealand manufacturing sectors from 1986 to 1996. Since 1984 both economies have undergone major structural changes with varying degrees of speed and intensity. We use the Malmquist index to measure TFP growth and decompose it into an efficiency change and a technical change component. This decomposition provides extra insight on assessing relative productivity trends during a period of economic reform. The results indicate the Australian manufacturing sector exhibits better rates of individual factor productivity performance while multifactor productivity is estimated to be higher in New Zealand manufacturing. TFP growth in New Zealand is driven by technical rather than efficiency change. In fact, the New Zealand manufacturing average rate of efficiency change is estimated to be negative over the sample period.     

A computer software price index using scanner data

Abstract.  In the last 20 years, the expenditure share of prepackaged software in the national output has grown. The large number of characteristics in computer software make hedonic regression techniques impractical for purposes of controlling for quality changes. In this study, matched model price indices are constructed using monthly scanner data on prices and unit values for various prepackaged computer software titles and categories sold in Canada from January 1996 to June 2000. Quality differences are controlled for by applying the maximum overlap method. Results show that prices declined during the period studied at an average annual rate of 5.9%. JEL classification: C43, L86     

Forecasting stock market returns over multiple time horizons

In this paper, we seek to demonstrate the predictability of stock market returns and explain the nature of this return predictability. To this end, we introduce investors with different investment horizons into the news-driven, analytic, agent-based market model developed in Gusev et al. [Algo. Finance, 2015, 4, 5–51]. This heterogeneous framework enables us to capture dynamics at multiple timescales, expanding the model’s applications and improving precision. We study the heterogeneous model theoretically and empirically to highlight essential mechanisms underlying certain market behaviours, such as transitions between bull and bear markets and the self-similar behaviour of price changes. Most importantly, we apply this model to show that the stock market is nearly efficient on intraday timescales, adjusting quickly to incoming news, but becomes inefficient on longer timescales, where news may have a long-lasting nonlinear impact on dynamics, attributable to a feedback mechanism acting over these horizons. Then, using the model, we design algorithmic strategies that utilize news flow, quantified and measured, as the only input to trade on market return forecasts over multiple horizons, from days to months. The backtested results suggest that the return is predictable to the extent that successful trading strategies can be constructed to harness this predictability.     

Call For Papers: The Eighth International Convention of the East Asian Economic Association

This paper provides empirical estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) trends in a sample of 17 APEC countries over the period 1975 to 1996. TFP growth is an important measure of an economy's performance and if measured correctly it can provide valuable guidance on issues related to the assessment of sustainable growth trends. We use the Malmquist index to measure TFP growth and decompose it into an efficiency change and a technical change component. This decomposition provides extra insight on assessing sustainable growth trends. The measurement technique itself is regarded as a significant improvement over previous conventional measures of TFP growth. The results are very interesting. Japan, Thailand and primarily Indonesia and Malaysia are identified as countries exhibiting on average negative TFP growth rates in the 1975-1990 period. In all these countries as well as in South Korea and Taiwan the main cause of low TFP growth is a poor (negative) efficiency record. The average TFP growth rate for Japan and Malaysia is positive in the 1975-1996 period but the efficiency change component remains negative. In all these countries the main contributor to labour productivity growth is capital accumulation. Unlike previous studies we find no evidence of a poor TFP growth performance for Singapore. Furthermore, we estimate that most of Singapore's labour productivity growth is driven by efficiency change. Estimates of rates of convergence towards the frontier economy that is estimated (not assumed as in other studies) to be the US, are also reported.     

The growth and management of R&D outsourcing: evidence from UK pharmaceuticals

Outsourcing of research and development (R&D) activities has become a major management issue for R&D and technical managers within firms. It has also been of growing concern to academics who are trying to chart the implications of the increasingly distributed nature of research and innovative activities in advanced economies. This study is based on a survey of research-based pharmaceutical companies operating in the United Kingdom conducted in 2004–2006. The aim of this paper is to outline the main reasons for pharmaceutical firms to outsource R&D and the management practices followed by such companies in relation to outsourcing. The research results provide interesting findings in relation to, for example, the reasons behind outsourcing, the decision-making processes behind such practices and barriers to outsourcing arrangements. These issues are evaluated together with the characteristics of the firms and the specific project outsourced.     

Next generation entrepreneur: innovation strategy through Web 2.0 technologies in SMEs

This essay studies the diffusion/adoption of Web 2.0 technologies in small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs)’ innovation strategies and particularly in research, development, design and other innovation activities. It looks at the effects of these technologies on the evolution and the dynamics of firm's innovation capabilities and the implications of entrepreneurial turnover on the adoption of said technologies. The study is based on original fieldwork with some 130 SMEs. The author finds that a consistent share of SMEs is actively trying to fill the knowledge gap and integrate Web 2.0 technologies in their innovation strategies. SMEs are managing this integration by progressively adjusting their behaviour in reaction to the opportunities offered by the technology and balancing the dependence of the business from the web. Barriers to the adoption of such technologies are also discussed.     

Public Procurement and Foreign Direct Investment Across France,Germany, Italy and the UK

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has become an important factor of economic development during the last decades. FDI contributes to the economic growth of the host economy through learning, diffusion of technology, positive externalities and capital inflows. Attracting FDI is currently an objective in its own right for many countries and this paper aims to identify policies affecting the multinational firm’s decision to establish a subsidiary. After accounting for labour productivity and trade openness, cross-section analysis, both industry-wise and country-wise, indicates that public procurement, especially “buy national” policies, and agglomeration economies are statistically significant determinants of FDI. Although our findings pertain to four large European economies, e.g. France, Germany, Italy and the UK, they constitute relevant policy guidelines for developing countries as well.      

Selection criteria and the award procedure in public procurement

This paper examines the admissibility of some selection criteria in the light of European public procurement law. It also points out the opportunity of using such criteria through an economic analysis. The main aspect to be dealt with is the numerical selection criteria, which may hinder firms not fulfilling them from participating in the award procedure. These criteria refer, according to the European Union directives on public procurement, to the economic, financial, and technical capacity of the candidate firms. In our analysis, the legal appreciation should be confronted with an economic analysis of the numerical selection criteria. This analysis is based on an arithmetic approach which focuses on relative rather than absolute values. Thus, through a series of performance indicators, an alternative approach to the above criteria is presented. This paper does not reflect the official position of the Commission of the EU.