Bank Credit Risk Management and Migration Analysis; Conditioning Transition Matrices on the Stage of the Business Cycle

Credit risk has been one of the most active areas of recent financial research. It is driven by advances in portfolio risk measurement and management techniques, growth in credit derivatives trading, the Basel II implementation, and regulatory concerns stemming from the commercial credit crunch that initially took place in 2001 and 2002 in the USA. Within this broader literature, a growing body of research analyzes the meaning, role, and influence of credit ratings that quantify credit risk. This paper examines the two-way links between credit risk measurement and the macroeconomic conditions, interpreted through phases of business cycles. We propose a methodology applied on bank internal rating data, which estimates ratings migration probabilities while integrating the state of the economy. We first discuss the issue of whether credit risk is low or high in different economic scenarios. In order to evaluate this prospect, we examine each year in four quarters that represent different scenarios throughout the year. We then review how macroeconomic considerations are incorporated into credit risk models and the risk measurement approach that underlies Basel II and Basel III.     

Rebalancing the Euro Area: The Costs of Internal Devaluation

This paper investigates the economic costs of rebalancing current account positions in the Euro area by means of internal devaluation. Internal devaluation relies on wage suppression in the deficit countries. Based on an old Keynesian model we estimate a current account equation, a wage-Phillips curve and an Okun's Law equation. All estimations are carried out for a panel of twelve Euro area members. From the estimation results we calculate the output costs of reducing current account deficits. Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain (GIIPS) had, on average, current account deficits of 8.4% of GDP in 2007. To eliminate these current account deficits, a reduction of GPD by some 47% would be necessary. Trade imbalances can be resolved in two ways: deflationary adjustment in the deficit countries or inflationary adjustment in the surplus countries. The economic costs of deflationary adjustment to those countries are equivalent to the output loss of the Great Depression. An adjustment of the surplus countries would increase growth and it would come with higher inflation, but it would allow rebalancing without a Great Depression in parts of Europe.     

Assessing the impact of liberalisation policies on the Greek labour market: an insider–experts' view from the perspective of the varieties of liberalisation

During the recent Great Recession (2008–2018), Greece has become the prototype example of the implementation of austerity policies in Europe. Contrary to public discourse, these austerity policies were complemented by substantial labour market reforms that promoted employment and wage flexibility. This article aims to present a theory-driven understanding of the implementation and the effects of these reforms. For this purpose, we employ a qualitative study consisting of semi-structured interviews with 50 labour market experts—government officials and labour lawyers, academics, labour union representatives and employer association representatives. Using Thelen's framework on the Varieties of Liberalization, we conclude that, contrary to the initial aims of the reforms, Greece followed a trajectory of direct deregulation, reducing considerably the level of both coordination between employers and workers, and coverage of employment protection. The interviews show that the dismantling of collective bargaining system was the most decisive move in this path.     

Incentive‐compatible contracts in merger negotiations: The role of acquirer idiosyncratic stock return volatility

We show that the acquiring firm's idiosyncratic stock return volatility (sigma) is an important determinant of the selection and perceived valuation effects of earnouts in Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As). Earnout‐based M&As are more often announced by high‐sigma acquirers (nearly 40% of all earnout‐based M&As), yet the documented higher risk‐adjusted returns accrued to acquirers in earnout‐based M&As, relative to M&As settled in cash, stock or mixed payments (the earnout effect), appear in deals announced by low‐sigma acquirers (nearly 20% of all earnout‐based M&As). High‐sigma acquirers employing earnouts appear to break even, or even experience losses, relative to their counterparts employing single up‐front payments. These results are confirmed based on a quasi‐experimental design through which the earnout effect is measured in isolation. We argue that in M&As announced by high‐sigma acquirers, the earnout effect is potentially elusive due to the presence of an acquirer‐specific information revelation effect, resulting from the heightened extent of information asymmetry between (small) acquirers’ managers and outside investors. On the contrary, the use of earnouts in M&As announced by low‐sigma (large) acquirers, whereby the acquirer‐specific information revelation effect is likely negligible, sends a strong signal for value creation that also prevents investors from inducing a size‐related discount.     

Exploring the determinants of the OSS market potential: The case of the Apache web server

A theoretical framework is proposed for the better understanding of the OSS global diffusion. Following a case study approach, the Apache web server's market potential is estimated, forecasted and examined in terms of the socio-economic factors determining its diffusion, across different economic environments in developed versus developing countries. Market saturation is explored under the prism of three theoretical perspectives: the institutional, the endogenous and the exogenous growth theories. Findings suggest that Apache market saturation levels depend on both endogenous and exogenous to a country factors and that institutional quality plays an important role to the market potential. Implications for theory and public policy are discussed.     

Entrepreneurship and Multinational Subsidiaries’ Performance in an Era of Financial Crisis and Economic Uncertainty

ABSTRACT

Since entrepreneurial foreign investments may act as a catalyst for economic recovery in crisis periods, we examine the influence of entrepreneurship-related variables on the performance of multinational subsidiaries in Greece, in an era of financial recession and high economic uncertainty. Our conceptual foundation identifies in-house technological capabilities, autonomy and strategic mandates as core predictors of subsidiaries’ entrepreneurial aspects. Drawing upon a questionnaire-based survey of 87 foreign firms operating in the focal economy, our findings suggest that subsidiaries’ product mandate role and increased autonomy impacts positively on performance. Surprisingly enough, the performance effect of technology-related variables linked to entrepreneurship seems insignificant.     

Resources,home institutional context and SMEs’ exporting: Direct relationships and contingency effects

Research highlights the role of resources in SMEs’ exporting but is less forthcoming with respect to entrepreneurial perceptions of home institutional quality. Drawing on institution-based lenses, we distinguish among formal, informal, and regulatory institutions, which in concert with firm resources are expected to influence SMEs’ export behavior. Our predictions are tested on a sample of 150 firms located in Greece. The analysis of direct relationships shows that formal and informal institutional dimensions affect significantly, but differently, SMEs’ export activity. The analysis of interaction effects demonstrates that resource decisions for exporting are contingent upon entrepreneurial perceptions of the home institutional context, such that SMEs respond to formal and informal domestic institutional weaknesses by intensifying resource allocations to fuel export sales. In an opposite direction, export regulatory complexity reverses the positive resources-exporting link. These findings suggest the importance of home institutions in the exporting field.     

Has Greater Stock Market Participation Increased Wealth Inequality in the Us?

Is wider access to stockholding opportunities related to reduced wealth inequality, given that it creates challenges for small and less sophisticated investors? Counterfactual analysis is used to study the influence of changes in the U.S. stockholder pool and economic environment, on the distribution of stock and net household wealth during a period of dramatic increase in stock market participation. We uncover substantial shifts in stockholder pool composition, favoring smaller holdings during the 1990s upswing but larger holdings around the burst of the Internet bubble. We find no evidence that widening access to stocks was associated with reduced net wealth inequality.     

How forensic scientists learn to investigate cases in practice

The formation of organisational tacit knowledge has been studied in the most part using only qualitative explanations such as case studies including those on the workings of communities of practice. From this perspective, tacit knowledge is submersed and consequently it is difficult to quantify. In our community of communities of practice case study we use quantitative social network analysis techniques to explore the process of tacit knowledge exchange among expert knowledge workers – forensic scientists. Conceptually, we search for more structured relational mechanisms that shape tacit knowledge flows occurring between participant actors in communities of practice, in their day-to-day knowledge intensive environments.     

A reassessment of the Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis of perfect capital mobility: evidence from historical data

This short paper explores the relationship between investment and saving rates in a sample of 13 OECD countries over the period 1885–1992. To this end, I employ panel cointegration tests based on the maximum likelihood approach developed by Johansen (J Economic Dynamics Control 12:231–254, 1988) instead of conventional panel cointegration residual based tests, in order to draw sharper conclusions. Using estimation techniques appropriate for heterogeneous panels I find a low degree of capital mobility for the sub-periods 1921–1992 and 1950–1992. The findings overwhelmingly support the hypothesis of perfect capital mobility in the short run.